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jeasiq-373
Forecasting the use of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic Models (GARCH) Seasonality with practical application
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In this paper  has been one study of autoregressive generalized conditional heteroscedasticity models existence of the seasonal component, for the purpose applied to the daily financial data at high frequency is characterized by Heteroscedasticity seasonal conditional, it has been depending on Multiplicative seasonal Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic Models Which is symbolized by the Acronym (SGARCH) , which has proven effective expression of seasonal phenomenon as opposed to the usual GARCH models. The summarizing of the research work studying the daily data for the price of the dinar exchange rate against the dollar, has been used autocorrelation function to detect seasonal first, then was diagnosed with a problem of heteroscdastic , passing through the phase estimation using the method of Maximum Likelihood Conditional and on the assumption that the random error is distributed normal distribution with the application on more than one rank for seasonal model, then determine the appropriate rank of the specimen using a variety of standards down to the prediction phase, it has been shown through the application on the study data stages that the best model for predicting volatility is  SGARCH (1,0)(1,0).                

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparison Between Maximum Likelihood Method And Bayesian Method For Estimating Some Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes Models
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Abstract

The Non - Homogeneous Poisson  process is considered  as one of the statistical subjects which had an importance in other sciences and a large application in different areas as waiting raws and rectifiable systems method , computer and communication systems and the theory of reliability and many other, also it used in modeling the phenomenon that occurred by unfixed way over time (all events that changed by time).

This research deals with some of the basic concepts that are related to the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process , This research carried out two models of the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process which are the power law model , and Musa –okumto ,   to estimate th

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
مقارنة بعض معايير تحديد الرتبة لانموذج الانحدار الذاتي (الطبيعي وغير الطبيعي) من الرتبة الاولـى بأستخدام المحاكـاة
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The search is contain compared among some order selection criteria  (FPE,AIC,SBC,H-Q) for the Model first order  Autoregressive when the White Noise is follow Normal distribution and some of non Gaussian distributions (Log normal, Exponential and Poisson distribution ) by using Simulation  

 

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The Influence of Magnetohydrodynamic Flow and Slip Condition on Generalized Burgers’ Fluid with Fractional Derivative
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This paper investigates the effect of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) of an incompressible generalized burgers’ fluid including a gradient constant pressure and an exponentially accelerate plate where no slip hypothesis between the burgers’ fluid and an exponential plate is no longer valid. The constitutive relationship can establish of the fluid model process by fractional calculus, by using Laplace and Finite Fourier sine transforms. We obtain a solution for shear stress and velocity distribution. Furthermore, 3D figures are drawn to exhibit the effect of magneto hydrodynamic and different parameters for the velocity distribution.

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 06 2019
Journal Name
Ssociation Of Arab Universities Journal Of Engineering Sciences
Application of Artificial Neural Network and GeographicalInformation System Models to Predict and Evaluate the Quality ofDiyala River Water, Iraq
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This research discusses application Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Geographical InformationSystem (GIS) models on water quality of Diyala River using Water Quality Index (WQI). Fourteen water parameterswere used for estimating WQI: pH, Temperature, Dissolved Oxygen, Orthophosphate, Nitrate, Calcium, Magnesium,Total Hardness, Sodium, Sulphate, Chloride, Total Dissolved Solids, Electrical Conductivity and Total Alkalinity.These parameters were provided from the Water Resources Ministryfrom seven stations along the river for the period2011 to 2016. The results of WQI analysis revealed that Diyala River is good to poor at the north of Diyala provincewhile it is poor to very polluted at the south of Baghdad City. The selected parameters wer

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 01 2020
Journal Name
Advances In Intelligent Systems And Computing
Forecasting by Using the Optimal Time Series Method
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Publication Date
Mon Apr 17 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
THE POSSIBILITY OF THE APPLICATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL FINES TO REDUCE THE WASTE GENERATED FROM THE SHOPE AND RESTAURANTS IN THE CITY OF BAGHDAD/ CASE STUDY.: THE POSSIBILITY OF THE APPLICATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL FINES TO REDUCE THE WASTE GENERATED FROM THE SHOPE AND RESTAURANTS IN THE CITY OF BAGHDAD/ CASE STUDY.
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The research aims to identify the possibility of applying environmental fines to commercial shops and restaurants to reduce the environmental pollution represented by the wastes generated from them. The research sample was divided into two groups, including the first (20) commercial shops (meat shops and slaughter it, fruits & vegetables, legumes and accessories) and second (30) Restaurant in the city of Baghdad on both sides of Karkh and Rusafa. The quality of the waste was classified into carton, plastic, aluminum, glass, paper, cork and food waste. The study revealed the possibility of applying environmental fines to restaurants and shops to reduce the waste generated from them throughout the year and to apply continuous monitorin

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 28 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Gross Domestic Product in Saudi Arabia using ARDL model for the period 1993-2019
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This paper analyses the relationship between selected macroeconomic variables and gross domestic product (GDP) in Saudi Arabia for the period 1993-2019. Specifically, it measures the effects of interest rate, oil price, inflation rate, budget deficit and money supply on the GDP of Saudi Arabia. The method employs in this paper is based on a descriptive analysis approach and ARDL model through the Bounds testing approach to cointegration. The results of the research reveal that the budget deficit, oil price and money supply have positive significant effects on GDP, while other variables have no effects on GDP and turned out to be insignificant. The findings suggest that both fiscal and monetary policies should be fo

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Applied Study on Analysis of Fixed, Random and Mixed Panel Data Models Measured at specific time intervals
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This research sought to present a concept of cross-sectional data models,  A crucial double data to take the impact of the change in time and obtained from the measured phenomenon of repeated observations in different time periods, Where the models of the panel  data were defined by different types of fixed , random and mixed, and Comparing them by studying and analyzing the mathematical relationship between the influence of time with a set of basic variables Which are the main axes on which the research is based and is represented by the monthly revenue of the working individual and the profits it generates, which represents the variable response And its relationship to a set of explanatory variables represented by the

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparison of Bayes Estimators for the parameter of Rayleigh Distribution with Simulation
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   A comparison of double informative and non- informative priors assumed for the parameter of Rayleigh distribution is considered. Three different sets of double priors are included, for a single unknown parameter of Rayleigh distribution. We have assumed three double priors: the square root inverted gamma (SRIG) - the natural conjugate family of priors distribution, the square root inverted gamma – the non-informative distribution, and the natural conjugate family of priors - the non-informative distribution as double priors .The data is generating form three cases from Rayleigh distribution for different samples sizes (small, medium, and large). And Bayes estimators for the parameter is derived under a squared erro

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2022
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Application of GIS technique in the studies on fish assemblages in Shatt Al-Arab River, Basrah, Iraq
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The present study has examined the spatiotemporal varieties of the demographics of the Shatt Al-Arab River fishes and their relation to some ecological components. The aim is to forecast these groups in the unexplored parts of the waterway with an emphasis on environmental indices of diversity. Three sites in the river were selected as an observation and study of these species, which lasted from March 2019 to February 2020, the study dealt with factors affecting fishes, as Water Temperature (WT), Dissolved Oxygen (DO), Potential Hydrogen Ion (pH), Salinity (Sal), and Transparency (Tra). Gill nets, cast nets, hooks, and hand nets were adopted to collecting fish. The results indicated that the fish population comprises 60 species represent

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