Nonlinear time series analysis is one of the most complex problems ; especially the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous variable (NARX) .Then ; the problem of model identification and the correct orders determination considered the most important problem in the analysis of time series . In this paper , we proposed splines estimation method for model identification , then we used three criterions for the correct orders determination. Where ; proposed method used to estimate the additive splines for model identification , And the rank determination depends on the additive property to avoid the problem of curse dimensionally . The proposed method is one of the nonparametric methods , and the simulation results give a good identification of the NARX models and the BIC criteria is the best criterion used to determine the correct orders of the selected models.
Abstract
Oil is considered a commodity and is still an important and prominent role in drawing and shaping the Iraqi economic scene. The revenues generated from the export of oil are considered the main source of the general budget in cash flows.
Since the revenues consist of quantity and price and the latter is an external factor which is difficult to predict, The effect of any commodity on its price, which is proven in the theory of micro-economic, but it is observed through the research that the response is slow, which means not to take advantage of the rise in prices, by increasing the quantity exported, the result of several facto
... Show MoreTo promote sustainable steel-concrete composite structures, it is essential to develop special shear connectors that facilitate accelerated construction and deconstruction. A lockbolt demountable shear connector (LBDSC) was recently proposed. While the LBDSC has been evaluated using horizontal and vertical (standard) push-out tests, it is essential to further assess the disassembly mechanism and the positive flexural performance of prefabricated demountable composite beams (PDCBs) under both serviceability and ultimate limit states. Two full-scale test specimens of PDCBs with LBDSC were designed with partial shear connections and assessed using a three or four-point load beam setup under both cyclic and static monotonic loading conditions.
... Show MoreRegression Discontinuity (RD) means a study that exposes a definite group to the effect of a treatment. The uniqueness of this design lies in classifying the study population into two groups based on a specific threshold limit or regression point, and this point is determined in advance according to the terms of the study and its requirements. Thus , thinking was focused on finding a solution to the issue of workers retirement and trying to propose a scenario to attract the idea of granting an end-of-service reward to fill the gap ( discontinuity point) if it had not been granted. The regression discontinuity method has been used to study and to estimate the effect of the end -service reward on the cutoff of insured workers as well as t
... Show MoreThis paper deals with the Magnetohydrodynyamic (Mill)) flow for a viscoclastic fluid of the generalized Oldroyd-B model. The fractional calculus approach is used to establish the constitutive relationship of the non-Newtonian fluid model. Exact analytic solutions for the velocity and shear stress fields in terms of the Fox H-function are obtained by using discrete Laplace transform. The effect of different parameter that controlled the motion and shear stress equations are studied through plotting using the MATHEMATICA-8 software.
In this study, the preparation and characterization of hyacinth plant /chitosan composite, as a heavy metal removal, were done. Water hyacinth plant (Eichhorniacrasspes) was collected from Tigris river in Baghdad. The root and shoot parts of plant were ground to powder. Composite materials were prepared at different ratios of plant part (from 2.9% to 30.3%, wt /wt) which corresponds to (30-500mg) of hyacinth plant (root and shoot) and chitosan. The results showed that all examined ratios of plant parts have an excellent absorption to copper (Cu (II)). Moreover, it was observed that 2.9% corresponds (30mg) of plant root revealed highest removal (82.7%) of Pb (II), while 20.23% of shoot removed 61% of Cd (II) within 24 hr
... Show MoreThe study of the characteristics of the heritage fabric is one of the important things in studies of conservation and rehabilitative use. There are three main elements of rehabilitation and they are considered the basis for achieving the rehabilitation process and these elements are (development, sustainability, participation) and that the first item addressed in the research is heritage and urban fabric in heritage areas where characteristics have been studied And a problem, while the second term is rehabilitation, where the concept of rehabilitation, the types and causes of the process of rehabilitation and the benefits and qualifications that affect the urban fabric that are represented (social, economic, religious and political) were
... Show MoreThis study relates to the estimation of a simultaneous equations system for the Tobit model where the dependent variables ( ) are limited, and this will affect the method to choose the good estimator. So, we will use new estimations methods different from the classical methods, which if used in such a case, will produce biased and inconsistent estimators which is (Nelson-Olson) method and Two- Stage limited dependent variables(2SLDV) method to get of estimators that hold characteristics the good estimator .
That is , parameters will be estim
... Show MoreBefore the start of delivery, any membranes rupture could be named as a premature rupture of membranes (PROM), which may need special obstetrical interactions to minimize perinatal complications, it is important topromptly diagnose PROM, the method used should be accurate, cheap, simple, and widely available. This was exactly the idea behind this study to use an ordinary pregnancy test kit aiming to confirm presence of PROM.Over a 6 months’ period, 60 pregnant women with a history of leaking liquor and a positive speculum examination for amniotic fluid pooling were collected prospectively and compared with other 60 women (control group) with uneventful pregnancy. Majority of patients with positive leaking liquor signs and symptoms had a p
... Show MoreCoagulation - flocculation are basic chemical engineering method in the treatment of metal-bearing industrial wastewater because it removes colloidal particles, some soluble compounds and very fine solid suspensions initially present in the wastewater by destabilization and formation of flocs. This research was conducted to study the feasibility of using natural coagulant such as okra and mallow and chemical coagulant such as alum for removing Cu and increase the removal efficiency and reduce the turbidity of treated water. Fourier transform Infrared (FTIR) was carried out for okra and mallow before and after coagulant to determine their type of functional groups. Carbonyl and hydroxyl functional groups on the surface of
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