Nonlinear time series analysis is one of the most complex problems ; especially the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous variable (NARX) .Then ; the problem of model identification and the correct orders determination considered the most important problem in the analysis of time series . In this paper , we proposed splines estimation method for model identification , then we used three criterions for the correct orders determination. Where ; proposed method used to estimate the additive splines for model identification , And the rank determination depends on the additive property to avoid the problem of curse dimensionally . The proposed method is one of the nonparametric methods , and the simulation results give a good identification of the NARX models and the BIC criteria is the best criterion used to determine the correct orders of the selected models.
Abstract
Oil is considered a commodity and is still an important and prominent role in drawing and shaping the Iraqi economic scene. The revenues generated from the export of oil are considered the main source of the general budget in cash flows.
Since the revenues consist of quantity and price and the latter is an external factor which is difficult to predict, The effect of any commodity on its price, which is proven in the theory of micro-economic, but it is observed through the research that the response is slow, which means not to take advantage of the rise in prices, by increasing the quantity exported, the result of several facto
... Show MoreBackground: Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed malignancy and the second leading cause of mortality among women in Iraq forming 23% of cancer related deaths. The low survival from the disease is a direct consequence to the advanced stages at diagnoses. Aim: To document the composite stage of breast cancer among Iraqi patients at the time of diagnosis; correlating the observed findings with other clinical and pathological parameters at presentation. Patients and Methods: A retrospective study enrolling the clinical and pathological characteristics of 603 Iraqi female patients diagnosed with breast cancer. The composite stage of breast cancer was determined according to UICC TNM Classification System of Breast Cancer and the Ameri
... Show MoreThe multiple linear regression model is an important regression model that has attracted many researchers in different fields including applied mathematics, business, medicine, and social sciences , Linear regression models involving a large number of independent variables are poorly performing due to large variation and lead to inaccurate conclusions , One of the most important problems in the regression analysis is the multicollinearity Problem, which is considered one of the most important problems that has become known to many researchers , As well as their effects on the multiple linear regression model, In addition to multicollinearity, the problem of outliers in data is one of the difficulties in constructing the reg
... Show MoreBackground: Bladder cancer (BC) is the most common malignant tumor in the urinary tract and the tenth most common malignancy worldwide. Exosomes are 40–100 nm-diameter nanovesicles that are either released straight from the plasma membrane during budding or merged with the plasma membrane by multivesicular bodies. Objectives: To assess the proportion of serum and urinary Exosome levels in urinary bladder cancer patients, as well as their impact on the disease. Methods: From January 2023 to June 2023, a total of 45 samples of blood and urine were collected from individuals diagnosed with bladder cancer at the Ghazi Hariri Hospital for Specialized Surgery. They included 45 male and female patients, varying in age, as well as 45 heal
... Show More This research aims to estimate stock returns, according to the Rough Set Theory approach, test its effectiveness and accuracy in predicting stock returns and their potential in the field of financial markets, and rationalize investor decisions. The research sample is totaling (10) companies traded at Iraq Stock Exchange. The results showed a remarkable Rough Set Theory application in data reduction, contributing to the rationalization of investment decisions. The most prominent conclusions are the capability of rough set theory in dealing with financial data and applying it for forecasting stock returns.The research provides those interested in investing stocks in financial
... Show MoreIn this work, MWCNT in the epoxy can be prepared at room temperature and thickness (1mm) at different concentration of CNTs powder. Optical properties of multi-walled carbon nanotubes (CNTs) reinforced epoxy have been measured in the range of (300-800)nm. The electronic transition in pure epoxy and CNT/epoxy indicated direct allowed transition. Also, it is found that the energy gap of epoxy is 4.1eV and this value decreased within range of (4.1-3.5)eV when the concentration of CNT powder increased from (0.001-0.1)% respectively.
The optical constants which include (the refractive index (n), the extinction coefficient (k), real (ε1) and imaginarily (ε2) part of dielectric constant calculated in the of (300-800)nm at different concent
This research aimed to identify the structural model of the relationship between emotional creativity and self-efficacy among male and female students of the preparatory year at Tabuk University. The current study adopted the descriptive correlational approach, as it is appropriate to the nature of the study. The study tools contained (60) items that measure the relationship between emotional creativity and self-efficacy among the male and female students of the preparatory year at Tabuk University. The study sample was chosen by the stratified random method of the study community, where the study sample reached (183) male and female students of the preparatory year at the University of Tabuk. The results of the study showed that there a
... Show MoreIn this work, radius of shock wave of plasma plume (R) and speed of plasma (U) have been calculated theoretically using Matlab program.