Nonlinear time series analysis is one of the most complex problems ; especially the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous variable (NARX) .Then ; the problem of model identification and the correct orders determination considered the most important problem in the analysis of time series . In this paper , we proposed splines estimation method for model identification , then we used three criterions for the correct orders determination. Where ; proposed method used to estimate the additive splines for model identification , And the rank determination depends on the additive property to avoid the problem of curse dimensionally . The proposed method is one of the nonparametric methods , and the simulation results give a good identification of the NARX models and the BIC criteria is the best criterion used to determine the correct orders of the selected models.
The time series of statistical methods mission followed in this area analysis method, Figuring certain displayed on a certain period of time and analysis we can identify the pattern and the factors affecting them and use them to predict the future of the phenomenon of values, which helps to develop a way of predicting the development of the economic development of sound
The research aims to select the best model to predict the number of infections with hepatitis Alvairose models using Box - Jenkins non-seasonal forecasting in the future.
Data were collected from the Ministry of Health / Department of Health Statistics for the period (from January 2009 until December 2013) was used
... Show MoreAccompanied Activity Economic Unity some negative effects in the environment of air, water and soil pollution of difficult to measure each other for being the external costs and to be avoided such expenditures should be measured or estimated value to be disclosed environmental costs at the heart of the financial statements of economic unity to inform managers and users of the financial statements on the implications costs environmental .and impact in reducing environmental costs and increase future income and economic unit, was based on research into the inductive approach through books, letters, journals and the internet to cover the theoretical framework of the research. And to the analyt
... Show MoreA seemingly uncorrelated regression (SUR) model is a special case of multivariate models, in which the error terms in these equations are contemporaneously related. The method estimator (GLS) is efficient because it takes into account the covariance structure of errors, but it is also very sensitive to outliers. The robust SUR estimator can dealing outliers. We propose two robust methods for calculating the estimator, which are (S-Estimations, and FastSUR). We find that it significantly improved the quality of SUR model estimates. In addition, the results gave the FastSUR method superiority over the S method in dealing with outliers contained in the data set, as it has lower (MSE and RMSE) and higher (R-Squared and R-Square Adjus
... Show MoreThe technology of reducing dimensions and choosing variables are very important topics in statistical analysis to multivariate. When two or more of the predictor variables are linked in the complete or incomplete regression relationships, a problem of multicollinearity are occurred which consist of the breach of one basic assumptions of the ordinary least squares method with incorrect estimates results.
There are several methods proposed to address this problem, including the partial least squares (PLS), used to reduce dimensional regression analysis. By using linear transformations that convert a set of variables associated with a high link to a set of new independent variables and unr
... Show MoreResearchers have increased interest in recent years in determining the optimum sample size to obtain sufficient accuracy and estimation and to obtain high-precision parameters in order to evaluate a large number of tests in the field of diagnosis at the same time. In this research, two methods were used to determine the optimum sample size to estimate the parameters of high-dimensional data. These methods are the Bennett inequality method and the regression method. The nonlinear logistic regression model is estimated by the size of each sampling method in high-dimensional data using artificial intelligence, which is the method of artificial neural network (ANN) as it gives a high-precision estimate commensurate with the dat
... Show MoreThis research aims to identify the effectiveness of counseling by using the technique of self-talkin developing the habits of mind among middle school students by testing important hypotheses, and choosing the experimental design for the two groups (experimental - control). The classification of "Costa & Kallick" was adopted to measure the habits of the mind, and the scale consisted of (64) items, and after confirming the psychometric properties of the scale, the researcher applied it to the research sample (487) students from middle school students. One of the students who got the lowest marks after answering the scale. purpose of applying the experiment. He divided them into two groups, one of them is experimental (10) students, as
... Show MoreThe two parameters of Exponential-Rayleigh distribution were estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation method (MLE) for progressively censoring data. To find estimated values for these two scale parameters using real data for COVID-19 which was taken from the Iraqi Ministry of Health and Environment, AL-Karkh General Hospital. Then the Chi-square test was utilized to determine if the sample (data) corresponded with the Exponential-Rayleigh distribution (ER). Employing the nonlinear membership function (s-function) to find fuzzy numbers for these parameters estimators. Then utilizing the ranking function transforms the fuzzy numbers into crisp numbers. Finally, using mean square error (MSE) to compare the outcomes of the survival
... Show MoreThe research is summarized in the construction of a mathematical model using the most common methods in the science of Operations Research, which are the models of transportation and linear programming to find the best solution to the problem of the high cost of hajj in Iraq, and this is done by reaching the optimum number of pilgrims traveling through both land ports and the number Ideal for passengers traveling through airports by Iraqi Airways, instead of relying on the personal experience of the decision-maker in Hajj and Umrah Authority by identifying the best port for pilgrim's travel, which can tolerate right or wrong, has been based on scientific methods of Operations Research, the researcher built two mathematical models
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The aim of the research is to identify the effect of using the self-questioning strategy on the achievement of fourth-grade students in science and the development of their reflective thinking in physics in the city of Baghdad. The research sample was divided into two groups: an experimental group of (20) students and a control group of (20) students. The researchers developed two tools: a test of (40) multiple-choice questions. The second tool is a test to measure the reflective thinking skills of fourth-grade students. It consists of (25) multiple-choice questions distributed on skills as follow: reflection and observation, detection of inaccuracies, reaching conclusions, giving clear explanations, an
... Show MoreThe Purpose of this study is mainly to improve the competitive position of products economic units using technique target cost and method reverse engineering and through the application of technique and style on one of the public sector companies (general company for vegetable oils) which are important in the detection of prices accepted in the market for items similar products and processing the problem of high cost which attract managerial and technical leadership to the weakness that need to be improved through the introduction of new innovative solutions which make appropriate change to satisfy the needs of consumers in a cheaper way to affect the decisions of private customer to buy , especially of purchase private economic units to
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