Nonlinear time series analysis is one of the most complex problems ; especially the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous variable (NARX) .Then ; the problem of model identification and the correct orders determination considered the most important problem in the analysis of time series . In this paper , we proposed splines estimation method for model identification , then we used three criterions for the correct orders determination. Where ; proposed method used to estimate the additive splines for model identification , And the rank determination depends on the additive property to avoid the problem of curse dimensionally . The proposed method is one of the nonparametric methods , and the simulation results give a good identification of the NARX models and the BIC criteria is the best criterion used to determine the correct orders of the selected models.
Abstract
This research aims to analyze the reality of the production process in an assembly line Cars (RUNNA) in the public company for the automotive industry / Alexandria through the use of some Lean production tools, and data were collected through permanence in the company to identify the problems of the line in order to find appropriate to adopt some Lean production tools solutions, and results showed the presence of Lead time in some stations, which is reflected on the customer's waiting time to get the car, as well as some of the problems existing in the car produced such as high temperature of the car, as the company does not take into account customer preferences,
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In this research, estimated the reliability of water system network in Baghdad was done. to assess its performance during a specific period. a fault tree through static and dynamic gates was belt and these gates represent logical relationships between the main events in the network and analyzed using dynamic Bayesian networks . As it has been applied Dynamic Bayesian networks estimate reliability by translating dynamic fault tree to Dynamic Bayesian networks and reliability of the system appreciated. As was the potential for the expense of each phase of the network for each gate . Because there are two parts to the Dynamic Bayesian networks and two part of gate (AND), which includes the three basic units of the
... Show MoreThe method binery logistic regression and linear discrimint function of the most important statistical methods used in the classification and prediction when the data of the kind of binery (0,1) you can not use the normal regression therefore resort to binary logistic regression and linear discriminant function in the case of two group in the case of a Multicollinearity problem between the data (the data containing high correlation) It became not possible to use binary logistic regression and linear discriminant function, to solve this problem, we resort to Partial least square regression.
In this, search the comparison between binary lo
... Show MoreIn this article, we developed a new loss function, as the simplification of linear exponential loss function (LINEX) by weighting LINEX function. We derive a scale parameter, reliability and the hazard functions in accordance with upper record values of the Lomax distribution (LD). To study a small sample behavior performance of the proposed loss function using a Monte Carlo simulation, we make a comparison among maximum likelihood estimator, Bayesian estimator by means of LINEX loss function and Bayesian estimator using square error loss (SE) function. The consequences have shown that a modified method is the finest for valuing a scale parameter, reliability and hazard functions.
This research introduce a study with application on Principal Component Regression obtained from some of the explainatory variables to limitate Multicollinearity problem among these variables and gain staibilty in their estimations more than those which yield from Ordinary Least Squares. But the cost that we pay in the other hand losing a little power of the estimation of the predictive regression function in explaining the essential variations. A suggested numerical formula has been proposed and applied by the researchers as optimal solution, and vererifing the its efficiency by a program written by the researchers themselves for this porpuse through some creterions: Cumulative Percentage Variance, Coefficient of Determination, Variance
... Show MoreThe use of non-parametric models and subsequent estimation methods requires that many of the initial conditions that must be met to represent those models of society under study are appropriate, prompting researchers to look for more flexible models, which are represented by non-parametric models
In this study, the most important and most widespread estimations of the estimation of the nonlinear regression function were investigated using Nadaraya-Watson and Regression Local Ploynomial, which are one of the types of non-linear
... Show MoreXanthomonas axonopodis pv glycines (Xag) is a pathogen that causes pustule disease in soybeans. Many
techniques for controlling this disease have been widely developed, one of which is the use of biological agents.
Bacillus sp. from the soybean phyllosphere is a biological agent that has the potential to suppress the
development of pustule disease. One of the biological control mechanisms is through biochemical induction
of plant resistance which includes the accumulation of phenols, salicylic acid compounds, and peroxidase
enzymes. Bacillus subtilis JB12 and Bacillus velezensis ST32 are two bacteria isolated from the soybean
phyllosphere which have previously been known to suppress Xag through an anti
Linear attenuation coefficient of polymer composite for beta particles and bremsstrahlung ray were investigated as a function of the absorber thickness and energy. The attenuation coefficient were obtained using NaI(Tl) energy selective scintillation counter with 90Sr/90Y beta source having an energy range from 0.1-1.1 MeV. The present results show the capability of this composite to absorber beta particles and bremsstrahlung ray that yield from it. That’s mean it is useful to choice this composite for radiation shielding of beta ray with low thickness.
Many of the key stream generators which are used in practice are LFSR-based in the sense that they produce the key stream according to a rule y = C(L(x)), where L(x) denotes an internal linear bit stream, produced by small number of parallel linear feedback shift registers (LFSRs), and C denotes some nonlinear compression function. In this paper we combine between the output sequences from the linear feedback shift registers with the sequences out from non linear key generator to get the final very strong key sequence
In this paper, we will discuss the performance of Bayesian computational approaches for estimating the parameters of a Logistic Regression model. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms was the base estimation procedure. We present two algorithms: Random Walk Metropolis (RWM) and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). We also applied these approaches to a real data set.