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إعداد خطة قبول خمسية للطلبة في كلية الإدارة والاقتصاد/ جامعة بغداد باستخدام منهجية (بوكس – جينكنز) لتحليل السلاسل الزمنية
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المستخلص:

 إن من أهم عوامل نجاح أي مؤسسة (سواء كانت مؤسسة تعليمية أم غيرها من المؤسسات) هو التخطيط الاستراتيجي السليم المبني على أساس علمي ونظام واقعي متكامل بعيداً عن التخمين والحدس.

تتمثل مشكلة البحث بوجود تفاوت بين أعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً والطلبة المخطط قبولهم في الدراسات الأولية بكلية الإدارة والاقتصاد بجامعة بغداد في كل عام دراسي حيث غالباً كانت أعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً أكثر من المخطط قبولهم مما يشير إلى عدم وجود آلية علمية واضحة للتنبؤ بأعداد الطلبة المتوقع قبولهم (المخطط قبولهم) لكل عام دراسي، وهذا بدوره أدى إلى عدم تطوير الطاقة الاستيعابية للكلية بشكل يتناسب مع الزيادة الحاصلة في أعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً في كل عام دراسي.

لقد جاء هذا البحث بهدف إعداد خطة قبول خمسية لطلبة الدراسات الأولية في الكلية المذكورة باستخدام منهجية (بوكس – جنيكنز) في تحليل السلاسل الزمنية كونها لا تزال تعتبر من الأساليب الحديثة المعتمدة في العديد من الدراسات في الوقت الراهن.

تم تحليل السلسلة الزمنية المتمثلة بأعداد الطلبة المقبولين فعلاً في الدراسة الأولية بالكلية المذكورة للأعوام الدراسية السابقة (من 1990/1991 إلى 2014/2015). لقد خلص البحث إلى أن أنموذجARIMA ( 3,1,0 )  هو الأنموذج الوحيد الممثل لبيانات السلسلة الزمنية تمثيلاً جيداً حيث كانت جميع معلماته معنوية، فضلاً عن اجتيازه لاختبارات الدقة. وقد أوصى البحث باعتماده في إعداد خطط القبول المستقبلية.

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 02 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
تحليل كتاب الكيمياء للصف الثالث المتوسط على وفق قضايا العلم والتكنولوجيا والمجتمع والبيئة ( S.T.S.E )
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The aim of the present research is to know the following :

 What are the Science and technology, society and environment issues (S.T.S.E) which included in the content of the chemistry Book third grade intermediate ?

And to achieve the objective of search The two researchers has prepares a list of science and technology, society and environment issues (STSE) consisted of (9) key issues namely ( Air quality and the atmosphere, sustainable development, water security, health and preventive security, mineral resources investment, pollution of various kinds, energy, food industry, production of weapons technology ) and from which (70) sub-issues emerge, Arbitrators competent agreement has been received . Then, the two re

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 02 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
The Argumentative Elements Of Discours In The Plague For Albert Camus: Les éléments argumentatifs dans le discours de La Peste d’Albert Camus
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Argumentation is not a contemporary, yet a deep rooted intellectual phenomenon dates back to Romans and Greeks times. The argumentative elements ,the author is trying to convey to the reader, are  linguistic procedures aim at persuading and being persuaded of what is true. The present study traces, through Camus’ novel The plague, the best method to construct argumentative techniques used to express the author’s deep philosophies.

Résumé        

          L’argumentation n’est pas un phénomène intellectuel nouveau, ses origines reviennent aux savants grecs et romains. Elle est une act

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of the structure of salaries of public sector workers for strategic planning purposes An analytical study in the general body of groundwater
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The research discusses the problem of salaries in the public sector in terms of the process of analyzing its structure and the possibility of benefiting from the information provided by the analysis process for the strategic planning process, and the General Authority for Groundwater has been adopted and one of the formations of the Ministry of Water Resources, which is centrally funded, to represent the salary structure of its employees (1117) employees be a field of research, as the salary structure in it was analyzed for the period between (2014-2019) using the quantitative approach to analysis and by relying on a number of statistical tools in the analysis process, including mathematical circles, upper limits, lower limits, p

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of composite variance of experiments carried out according to design Latin box
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We know that the experiments which conducted by latin square in one location or in one period (season), but there are many cases that need to conduct the same experiments in many locations or in many periods (seasons) to study the interaction  between the treatments and locations or between the treatments and periods (seasons) .In this research we present  an idea for  conduct  the experiment in several locations and in many period (seasons) by using LSD , it represent  acontribution in the area of design and analysis of experiments ,we had written. we had written (theoretically)  the general plans, the mathematical models for these experiments, and finding the derivations of EMS for each component (

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 02 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Linguistic Errors in second language learning through Error Analysis theory: هه‌ڵه‌ زمانییه‌كان له‌ فێربوونی زمانی دووه‌مدا (له‌ ڕوانگه‌ی تیۆری شیكاری هه‌ڵه‌ییه‌وه‌)
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Second language learner may commit many mistakes in the process of second language learning. Throughout the Error Analysis Theory, the present study discusses the problems faced by second language learners whose Kurdish is their native language. At the very stages of language learning, second language learners will recognize the errors committed, yet they would not identify the type, the stage and error type shift in the process of language learning. Depending on their educational background of English as basic module, English department students at the university stage would make phonological, morphological, syntactic, semantic and lexical as well as speech errors. The main cause behind such errors goes back to the cultural differences

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2016
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Absence of the Applied Semiotic Approach in Analyzing the Media Phenomenon
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the contemporary Arab scholars deal with semiotics as an approach that helps them understand the texts, its meaning, and its structural functionalism . that’s why every now and then we find some
studies and researches using semiotics as an approach in study and comparatives, some of them even used the semiotic approach in analyzing old and new texts, while others think that semiotic holds and important place in critical approaches .
even though some of them considers semiotic just a trend of fashion this really didn’t lessen the value of semiotic as a scientific and procedural approach in literary and media studies as well as in analyzing literary and journalistic texts. for this reason it is considered as an important approa

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Analyzing the content of the chemistry textbook for the third intermediate grade according to the skills of knowledge economy
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The current research aims to identify the extent to which cognitive economics skills are included in the content of the chemistry textbook for the third intermediate grade, and the research sample was represented in the chemistry textbook for the third intermediate grade. A list of knowledge economy skills was prepared (6) main skills (basic skills, communication skills, thinking skills, work skills Group, information-gathering skill, behavioral skills (and (20) sub-skills) (reading, writing, operations, computer skills and employability, oral expression and written communication, dialogue, persuasion, influence and arousal, analysis, problem-solving, decision-making, suggestions and hypotheses and employing them. Controlling, directing

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 15 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Decisive Answers: A Pragmatic Linguistic Study
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The current research is concerned with studying the decisive answers which are considered quick and conclusive. These answers can effectively interrupt the opponent's argument and close the dialogue.This research is concentrated on deliberative methodology focusing on the decisive answer's activity and ending them through several completing and argument sides. This research consists of an introduction and three parts, the current introduction is focused the light on the concept of decisive answers and its uses in literature and the scarce of speech, and how to consider it with one dialogue description,that dialogue constitute by ? The first part is concerned with those answers through the deliberative methodology and classifying decisive

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Analysis of third intermediate chemistry book following sustainable development standards
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The current research seeks to Analyze third intermediate chemistry book following sustainable development standards for academic year (2016-2017). To do this, a list of sustainable development standards that should be included in chemistry book was designed based on the previous studies. The first version of the list consisted of (50) sub-case divided into three standards (social, economic, and environmental) which was exposed to group of experts in teaching chemistry and teaching methods. The list has modified to (43) sub-case. The researcher followed the implicit and explicit meaning in his analysis: one for recording and repetition and the other for frequency. The result showed that third intermediate chemistry book has achieved (20)

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
A Feminist Discourse Analysis of Writer's Gender Biases about Violence Against Women
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    The present study is concerned with the writer's ideologies towards violence against women. The study focuses on analyzing violence against women in English novel to see the extent the writers are being affected and influenced by their genders. It also focuses on showing to what extent the writer's ideologies are reflected in their works. Gender influences social groups ideologies; therefore, when a writer discusses an issue that concerns the other gender, they will be either subjective or objective depending on the degree of influence, i.e., gender has influenced their thoughts as well as behaviors. A single fact may be presented differently by different writers depending on the range of a

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