In this research, the semiparametric Bayesian method is compared with the classical method to estimate reliability function of three systems : k-out of-n system, series system, and parallel system. Each system consists of three components, the first one represents the composite parametric in which failure times distributed as exponential, whereas the second and the third components are nonparametric ones in which reliability estimations depend on Kernel method using two methods to estimate bandwidth parameter h method and Kaplan-Meier method. To indicate a better method for system reliability function estimation, it has been used simulation procedure for comparison and different sample sizes of size (14,30,60 and 100) using standard comparison Integral Mean Square Error (IMSE). For k-out of-n system, the results indicate that it is better to use Bayesian method for samples of size (30,60 and 100), and to use the classical method for samples of size (14), whereas for series system the best method to use is Bayesian method for samples of size (14,60 and 100) , and to use the classical method for sample of size (30). for parallel system, it is better to use Bayesian method for all sample sizes.
In this paper we used frequentist and Bayesian approaches for the linear regression model to predict future observations for unemployment rates in Iraq. Parameters are estimated using the ordinary least squares method and for the Bayesian approach using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Calculations are done using the R program. The analysis showed that the linear regression model using the Bayesian approach is better and can be used as an alternative to the frequentist approach. Two criteria, the root mean square error (RMSE) and the median absolute deviation (MAD) were used to compare the performance of the estimates. The results obtained showed that the unemployment rates will continue to increase in the next two decade
... Show MoreThe parameter and system reliability in stress-strength model are estimated in this paper when the system contains several parallel components that have strengths subjects to common stress in case when the stress and strengths follow Generalized Inverse Rayleigh distribution by using different Bayesian estimation methods. Monte Carlo simulation introduced to compare among the proposal methods based on the Mean squared Error criteria.
This paper deals with the modeling of a preventive maintenance strategy applied to a single-unit system subject to random failures.
According to this policy, the system is subjected to imperfect periodic preventive maintenance restoring it to ‘as good as new’ with probability
p and leaving it at state ‘as bad as old’ with probability q. Imperfect repairs are performed following failures occurring between consecutive
preventive maintenance actions, i.e the times between failures follow a decreasing quasi-renewal process with parameter a. Considering the
average durations of the preventive and corrective maintenance actions a
... Show MoreA new panel method had been developed to account for unsteady nonlinear subsonic flow. Two boundary conditions were used to solve the potential flow about complex configurations of airplanes. Dirichlet boundary condition and Neumann formulation are frequently applied to the configurations that have thick and thin surfaces respectively. Mixed boundary conditions were used in the present work to simulate the connection between thick fuselage and thin wing surfaces. The matrix of linear equations was solved every time step in a marching technique with Kelvin's theorem for the unsteady wake modeling. To make the method closer to the experimental data, a Nonlinear stripe theory which is based on a two-dimensional viscous-inviscid interac
... Show MoreA numerical method (F.E.)was derived for incompressible viscoelastic materials, the aging and
environmental phenomena especially the temperature effect was considered in this method. A
treatment of incompressibility was made for all permissible values of poisons ratio. A
mechanical model represents the incompressible viscoelastic materials and so the properties can
be derived using the Laplace transformations technique .A comparison was made with the other
methods interested with viscoelastic materials by applying the method on a cylinder of viscoelastic material surrounding by a steel casing and subjected to a constant internal pressure, as well as a comparison with another viscoelastic method and for Asphalt Concrete pro