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jeasiq-25
Effect Of Using Quantitative Methods Of Demand Forecasting In Improving Of Supply Chain Performance:" Case Study In One Of An Industerial Organization"
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Objecte The study aims to test the effect of using the appropriate quantitative method of demand forecasting in improving the performance of supply chain of the aviation fuel product ( The study sample), One of the products of the Doura refinery (The study site), By testing a set of quantitative methods of demand forecasting using forecasting error measurements, and choosing the least faulty, most accurate and reliable method and adept it in the building  chain.

Is the study of problem through a starting with the following main questions:

"Does the chosen of the appropriate quantitative method for demand forecasting affect the performance of supply chain of the aviation fuel product in the refinery (site the study)?"

The importance of study shows through investment all opportunities sales and reduce the opportunities

Adopted the study used the case study methodology to study the methods used in the Refinery to demand forecast for aviation fuel and analyze the supply chain, of the product  then test a set of quantitative methods to forecast  the demand of the sample of the study and choose the best method using predictive error measurements, to  depending it in the building  of supply chain proposed by the study, And then compare the performance of the current and proposed chain using a set of financial and quantitative measures most important (quantity of production, quantity of shortage deficit, total costs, revenues, profits) .

The study reached a set of conclusions the light of results the most important that the measurements adopted in the comparison of the two chain have indicated that the supply chain proposed by the study the current excelled supply chain of aviation fuel.

 

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 09 2018
Journal Name
اتحاد الاحصائيين العربوقائع المؤتمر الدولي العلمي السادس لاتحاد الاحصائيين العرب
The Use of Markov Chain to reveal the reality of non- oil econ0miv indicators in Iraq
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The research mainly seeks to predict the amounts of non- oil Iraqi exports which concludes ) Food & Animals , Raw materials and non- tanned Leather and fur , Mineral fuels and Lubricating Oil , Chemical substances and amounts , Manufactured goods , Electrical and non - electrical machines , Supplies and Total non- Oil exports ) by using Markov Chain as one of Statistical approach to forecasting in future . In this search We estimate the transliteration probabilities matrix according to Maximum Likelihood on a data collected from central organization for Statistics and information technology represents an index numbers of non- Oil exports amount in Iraq from 2004 to 2015 depending on 2007 as a basic year . Results shown that trend of index

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of governance on the reputation of the organization
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The current study aims to determine the extent of SOMO's interest in governance and whether this interest is sufficient to be reflected in enhancing its organizational reputation, and the field of research was in the oil marketing company SOMO. (109), (105) questionnaires were distributed, (94) forms and (11) forms were not retrieved, and the valid questionnaires had reached (91). The analytical and descriptive approach was used for the study, and the current research has found a positive impact of government on the reputation of the organization, and this research demonstrated the existence of the proposed relationship and the impact between governance and the reputation of the organization.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of the structure of salaries of public sector workers for strategic planning purposes An analytical study in the general body of groundwater
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The research discusses the problem of salaries in the public sector in terms of the process of analyzing its structure and the possibility of benefiting from the information provided by the analysis process for the strategic planning process, and the General Authority for Groundwater has been adopted and one of the formations of the Ministry of Water Resources, which is centrally funded, to represent the salary structure of its employees (1117) employees be a field of research, as the salary structure in it was analyzed for the period between (2014-2019) using the quantitative approach to analysis and by relying on a number of statistical tools in the analysis process, including mathematical circles, upper limits, lower limits, p

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 23 2019
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Persuasive Methods of ISIS in Recruiting Individuals (Scientific Approach)
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The rapid success and the field dilation of Daish organization in both Iraq and Syria make academic institutes and research centers to pay attention to its propaganda means to gain its public opinion, and to further investigation about new methods employed by this organization to disseminate its messages to the public, particularly young people in large areas of the world. This organization uses traditional propaganda techniques on psychological war and its levels, social network sites and platforms that are distributed online. This study seeks to expose more persuasive methods used by the organization to gain multiple classes of society and to disseminate its extremist ideological thoughts. It also studies the psychological operation an

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 02 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of Carin Model in The Achievement of The First Intermediate Grade Students and Their Reflective Thinking in Physics Subject.
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The Current research aims to identify ( the effect of Carin model in the achievement of the first intermediate Grade Students and their Reflective Thinking in physics Subject ) the researcher selected the experimental design with a partial adjust , The research sample consisted of ( 47 ) Students with ( 23 ) Students in the experimental group and ( 24 ) Students in the control group , The two groups rewarded in the variables chronological age in months , Reflective Thinking and the degrees in physics in the first course. The researcher coined the purposes of behavioral which belong to chapter fifth, sixth, and seventh of physics books scheduled of the school year ( 2015-2016 ) and prepared appropriate lesson plans for the two experimenta

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Some Robust methods for Estimates the power Spectrum in ARMA Models Simulation Study
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Abstract:

Robust statistics Known as, resistance to errors caused by deviation from the stability hypotheses of the statistical operations (Reasonable, Approximately Met, Asymptotically Unbiased, Reasonably Small Bias, Efficient ) in the data selected in a wide range of probability distributions whether they follow a normal distribution or a mixture of other distributions deviations different standard .

power spectrum function lead to, President role in the analysis of Stationary random processes, form stable random variables organized according to time, may be discrete random variables or continuous. It can be described by measuring its total capacity as function in frequency.

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of the statistical methods used to Forecast the size of the Iraqi GDP for the two sectors (public and private) for the period (2025-2016)
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Gross domestic product (GDP) is an important measure of the size of the economy's production. Economists use this term to determine the extent of decline and growth in the economies of countries. It is also used to determine the order of countries and compare them to each other. The research aims at describing and analyzing the GDP during the period from 1980 to 2015 and for the public and private sectors and then forecasting GDP in subsequent years until 2025. To achieve this goal, two methods were used: linear and nonlinear regression. The second method in the time series analysis of the Box-Jenkins models and the using of statistical package (Minitab17), (GRETLW32)) to extract the results, and then comparing the two methods, T

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 01 2021
Journal Name
The Journal Of Asian Finance, Economics And Business (jafeb)
The Effect of Social Marketing on Customer Behavior: An Empirical Study of Tourism Companies in Baghdad, Iraq
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Social marketing seeks to develop and integrate marketing concepts with other approaches to social change and aims to influence behaviors that benefit individuals and societies for the social good. The study investigates the type and level of influence of social marketing on customer behavior in tourism companies in Baghdad (Iraq). The sample size of the study is 135 people comprising directors, assistant directors, and marketing staff in tourism companies in Baghdad. A questionnaire was used as a tool to collect data and information, and was prepared by the researcher after it underwent validity, stability, and arbitration tests. The data was analyzed using the statistical program (SPSS v. 25, AMOS v. 23) and statistical methods have been

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 15 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
The Effect of Artificial Saliva on The Surface Roughness of Different Esthetic Archwires (An in Vitro Study)
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Background:The demand for esthetic orthodontic appliances is increasing so that the esthetic orthodontic archwires were introduced. This in vitro study was designed to evaluate the surface roughness offiber-reinforced polymer composite (FRPC) archwires compared to coated nickel-titanium (NiTi) archwires immersed in artificial saliva. Materials and Methods:Three types of esthetic orthodontic archwires were used: FRPC (Dentaurum), Teflon coated NiTi (Dentaurum) and epoxy coated NiTi (Orthotechnology). They were round (0.018 inch) in cross section and cut into pieces of 15 mm in length.Forty pieces from each type were divided into four groups; one group was left at a dry condition and the other three groups were immersed in artificial saliva (

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 19 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The Federal Board of Supreme Audit and Role in the Assessment of Tax Performance: An Applied Research in The General Commission of Taxes
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The success of any institution must be based on means to protect its resources and assets from the waste, loss, misuse and the availability of accurate and reliable data by accounting reports to increase its operational efficiency, namely, that the internal control system is considered as a safety valve for top management in any economic unit. The problem is represented by the need for an efficient system, so to ensure its success, there must exist external parties which monitor and evaluate the performance because of its importance by following clear criteria. So, the research problem came to address performance evaluation indicators which are set by the Federal Board of Supreme Audit (FBSA) and identify the extent of its contribution t

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