Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
Scheduling considered being one of the most fundamental and essential bases of the project management. Several methods are used for project scheduling such as CPM, PERT and GERT. Since too many uncertainties are involved in methods for estimating the duration and cost of activities, these methods lack the capability of modeling practical projects. Although schedules can be developed for construction projects at early stage, there is always a possibility for unexpected material or technical shortages during construction stage. The objective of this research is to build a fuzzy mathematical model including time cost tradeoff and resource constraints analysis to be applied concurrently. The proposed model has been formulated using fuzzy the
... Show MoreThe aim of the research is to identify the suitability of a patrol model in evaluating the financial performance of Iraqi banks. The financial reports of five Iraqi commercial banks were approved as a sample for research for the period from 2015 to 2020. The most common financial ratios were adopted for the purpose of measuring the five elements of the model, which are capital adequacy, profitability, credit risk, bankal efficiency and liquidity. The results showed the possibility of using the PATROL model in evaluating the performance of Iraqi banks, as it gave a realistic image of the reality of Iraqi banks in terms of high capital adequacy index and high liquidity, as well as fluctuation in profitability index, not to mention the prob
... Show MoreIn this research the Empirical Bayes method is used to Estimate the affiliation parameter in the clinical trials and then we compare this with the Moment Estimates for this parameter using Monte Carlo stimulation , we assumed that the distribution of the observation is binomial distribution while the distribution with the unknown random parameters is beta distribution ,finally we conclude that the Empirical bayes method for the random affiliation parameter is efficient using Mean Squares Error (MSE) and for different Sample size .
This study discussed a biased estimator of the Negative Binomial Regression model known as (Liu Estimator), This estimate was used to reduce variance and overcome the problem Multicollinearity between explanatory variables, Some estimates were used such as Ridge Regression and Maximum Likelihood Estimators, This research aims at the theoretical comparisons between the new estimator (Liu Estimator) and the estimators
This present paper aim at knowing the process of evaluating the training program that could be applied in Maysan Health office for it significance and importance in field of management and vocational staff preparations of high scientific experience in different fields of Health. The society of research includes staffs working in Maysan Health Office , of specialists , dentists, pharmacists, laboratories, nursing and administrators. Their number is 100 employees, the researcher has designed questionnaire by depending on "Kirkpatrick" for assessing the training . The researcher has used thorough survey and has entailed 90 questionnaire,
... Show MoreMulti-spectral satellite images of the Landsat satellite by the tow sensitive Thematic Mapper (TM) and Thematic Mapper Enhancement (ETM+), which covered the study area located south east of Iraq. In this research; used the sixth thermal spectral band (Thermal Band) for study the water cover in the AlRazzaza Lake located within the province of Karbala. We intended to study the cover a case of the study area, used satellite images showing the status of region during the period from 1990 to 2001 and 2007. From this study we conclude that cover the water of the study area change in sequence case to decrease during these years.
Multi-spectral satellite images of the Landsat satellite by the tow sensitive Thematic Mapper (TM) and Thematic Mapper Enhancement (ETM+), which covered the study area located south east of Iraq. In this research; used the sixth thermal spectral band (Thermal Band) for study the water cover in the Al-Razzaza Lake located within the province of Karbala. We intended to study the cover a case of the study area, used satellite images showing the status of region during the period from 1990 to 2001 and 2007. From this study we conclude that cover the water of the study area change in sequence case to decrease during these years.
Today, the five Caspian riparian states on the shores of the Caspian Sea (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Russia, and Iran) have become a front for ambitions and international and regional competition, especially in light of the features and characteristics that natural geography has endowed them with and their enjoyment of a group of economic and mineral wealth that are not optimally exploited so far which made it a strategic attraction area for international trends and interventions, especially Western ones. It is a battleground for major international companies aiming to monopolize promising industrial investments in order to impose control and influence on the region’s resources and economic wealth and thus impose their forei
... Show MoreThe Evaluation of the immune response in Golden Hamsters experimentally infected with Leishmania donovani was determined in this study, particularly, the cellular immune response. Follow up has maintained to determine the Delayed Type of Hypersensitivity using skin test both in infected and control lab animals. Chicken red blood cells were used as a parameter to evaluate the immune system; they are dull and have the ability of immunization. Two concentrations of chicken R.B.C were examined to determine which gives the higher titration in Hamsters and those were 1.5 X 109 cell/ml and 3 X 109 cell/ml , the second concentration gave the maximum titration where then used in this work. After sensitization with Chicken R.B.C for both in
... Show More