Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
This research aims at making a comparative survey between the dry season in (2017-2018) and the wet season (2018-2019) in Iraq concerning the variation of rainfall and pressure systems responsible for such a difference. In this paper, seven climatological stations have been selected: Mosul, Kirkuk, Khanaqin, Baghdad, Rutba, Diwaniyah and Basra. Results have shown that the first category of rainfall of the two seasons has recorded a higher number of rainy days in comparison with the second and third categories with a total of 274 day in a dry season and 403 day of a wet season. Further, the total amount of the annual continuous rain is higher than the total of thunderstorms in a dry season as well as in the
... Show MoreIf the sovereignty of the state is reflected in the taxation of its citizens, this sovereignty can not be completed and completed only if it works on its part to collect its debts, whether voluntary or compulsory, and the debt of the debt arises from the will of the individual and the will of the state alone, The existing management of seizure and collection is based on an unequal relationship between the State and the debtor from which the obligation arises. Naturally, this relationship has obligations and rights on both parties. The researcher used a set of studies and previous research, books and other sources related to the subject of research. This was done through the theoretical and practical aspects, which focused on direct and i
... Show MoreThis study was conducted to investigate thyroid function and Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) in (Chronic kidney disease) CKD patients by evaluating their levels in CKD patients, 50 patients were diagnosed to have CKD stage-5, their ages ranged between 20-50 years (25 males and 25 females) who attended the Nephrology and Transplant Center in Medical City of Baghdad- Iraq, they were recruited from April 2018 to July 2018 and were enrolled into the study. The control group consisted of 20 healthy individuals, their ages ranged between 20-48 years (10 males and 10 females). The study showed non-significant (p>0.05) increase in AMH level in CKD patients compared to the control group. On the other hand, TSH was recorded a highly significant (
... Show MoreMany problems were encountered during the drilling operations in Zubair oilfield. Stuckpipe, wellbore instability, breakouts and washouts, which increased the critical limits problems, were observed in many wells in this field, therefore an extra non-productive time added to the total drilling time, which will lead to an extra cost spent. A 1D Mechanical Earth Model (1D MEM) was built to suggest many solutions to such types of problems. An overpressured zone is noticed and an alternative mud weigh window is predicted depending on the results of the 1D MEM. Results of this study are diagnosed and wellbore instability problems are predicted in an efficient way using the 1D MEM. Suitable alternative solutions are presented
... Show MoreThe main objectives of present study are to evaluate the trace elements pollution in the sediment of the Tigris River and drainage canals in Wasit Governorate, Iraq. Assessment of trace elements pollutants were conducted for 18 sediment samples collected in March 2017. Trace elements were analyzed in sediment Tigris River samples in Wasit Governorate. This metal pollution was evaluated using geo-accumulation (I-geo) index, Contamination Factor (CF) and Pollution Load Index (PLI). According to these statistical indices, the sediments collected from Tigris River in the study area are highly polluted with Titanium (71.9 ppm), Nickel (226.6 ppm) Chromium (425.2 ppm), Cadmium (2ppm) and Molybdenum (15.8 ppm) while the sediments&nb
... Show MoreThe electric energy is one of the most important renewable energies used in the world as it is the main source for sustainable development and economic development through its use in (production, transport and distribution), and in Iraq, the electric power sector has suffered from many problems and obstacles, as providing electric current is one of the most prominent difficulties and challenges That successive governments and residents have faced since the early nineties of the last century and are still ongoing, and that Iraq has all the climatic conditions for developing the work of the electricity system from renewable energies such as solar and hydroelectric energy, as well as gas fields that have become a Basic pillar of pow
... Show MoreThe paper aims to measure and analysis the impact Public Spending on Iraq economy (Kaldor Variables).
(variables of the magic square Kaldor) and them in after 2003.
The paper adopted econometric Methods to test the stationarity of the Variables under consideration. For the period (2005-2016) by using multiple regression and estimation the Impulse response function (IRF), by adopting Eviews 10 program.
The results of Impulse response function for the following five-years after the period under consideration reflexes that public expenditure (PEX) was fluctuating between positive and negative in all the variables of the research and this shows the fragility of the performance of fiscal policy in Iraq.
T
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