Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
المقدمة
ما كان للعرب في تاريخهم الطويل قبل الإسلام، وبعده أن يبدعوا ما أبدعوه في صنع الحضارة وتاريخها ، لولا اعتمادهم أنظمة تربوية سليمة في التنشئة والتعليم، ولولا ان عصورهم قد عرفت مربين ، ومعلمين، وعلماء اسهموا في تقديم نظريات تربوية آثرت في تقدم الفكر التربوي وفي تقدم الإنسان.
فمن الطبيعي أن تكون للعرب تربية منظمة، ولمفكريهم عناية بهذه التربية في كل حقب تاريخهم الطويل، ما د
... Show MoreThis paper discussed the solution of an equivalent circuit of solar cell, where a single diode model is presented. The nonlinear equation of this model has suggested and analyzed an iterative algorithm, which work well for this equation with a suitable initial value for the iterative. The convergence of the proposed method is discussed. It is established that the algorithm has convergence of order six. The proposed algorithm is achieved with a various values of load resistance. Equation by means of equivalent circuit of a solar cell so all the determinations is achieved using Matlab in ambient temperature. The obtained results of this new method are given and the absolute errors is demonstrated.
The competition in the hotel sector, globalization and the development of new information have forced the sector to continuously seek new techniques and arrangements to remain competitive through hotel industry companies, including Benchmarking and the application of this method in the hotel sector. The selection of the Rashid International Hotel by the Ministry of Tourism as a leading hotel or benchmark for comparison of other hotels in Iraq, and the selection of two hotels in Baghdad for comparison, namely (Ishtar International Hotel, Baghdad International Hotel) and the choice also by the Ministry of Tourism, N is to correct the course of practice to manage the cost and diagnosis of the weakness of the strengths and weaknesses in the
... Show MoreObjectives : This study was seeks to determine the IgG and IgM in serum mothers and their babies of Iraqi patient suffering from congenital anomalies toward some microorganisms such as Cytomegalovirus (CMV), Congenital toxoplasmosis , Congenital rubella and Genital herpes simplex virus (HSV) correlated with age and babies gender the sample was collected from AL- Alwayia hospital for children / Baghdad . Methodology : Fifth blood sample have been collected from mothers and their babies suffering from congenital anomalies to detection IgG and IgM of some viruses including as Cytomegalovirus (CMV), congenital tox
Despite all the possibilities held by Iraq for the production of poultry , but there is low and clear in the level of production and a rise in costs and a decline in per capita consumption is due to a number of reasons, including poor investment , stop government subsides , dumping policies , market Bolmottagat imported , the contribution of the merchant squandering of national capacity , weak base material for the growth of this sector , the security situation and the crisis of energy and others .
Despite all this research has shown that there are great investment opportunities in this very sector of the market size and absorptive capacity of his and the growth of per capita income and level of cul
... Show MoreThis study aimed to show the histological changes that 0ccured in Culex pipiens pipiens larvae and adults infected with Beauveria bassiana . The 4th instar larvae and adult mosquitoes were infected with B.bassiana in 10-4 spore/ml dilution, after 96 hours histological section was studied showing that the fungi infected all the body parts specially Cuticle , Epiderms, fat bodies and midgut. After 120 hours of exposure to the fungi the insect have a white appearance and covered with a thick coat of hyphea. Thus study shows biological control of B .bassiana on mosquitoes.
This study found that one of the constructive, necessary, beneficial, most effective, and cost-effective ways to meet the great challenge of rising energy prices is to develop and improve energy quality and efficiency. The process of improving the quality of energy and its means has been carried out in many buildings and around the world. It was found that the thermal insulation process in buildings and educational facilities has become the primary tool for improving energy efficiency, enabling us to improve and develop the internal thermal environment quality processes recommended for users (student - teacher). An excellent and essential empirical study has been conducted to calculate the fundamental values of the
... Show Morecreating unique exercises utilizing a teaching approach that works with the research sample, determining how special exercises affect the development of torso flexibility, and determining how special exercises affect the development of bow ability. Activate the search The results of the pre- and post-tests for the control and experimental research groups show a statistically significant association that is favoring the post-test in the development of bow skill performance Using the experimental technique, the researcher set up one group and gave them two tests (pre and post) based on scientific theories that made sense for the topic at hand. Forty adolescent wrestlers from the Adhamiya Club in the Baghdad Governorate were recognized
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Coronavirus has affected many people around the world and caused an increase in the number of hospitalized patients and deaths. The prediction factor may help the physician to classify whether the patient needs more medical attention to decrease mortality and worsening of symptoms. We aimed to study the possible relationship between C reactive protein level and the severity of symptoms and its effect on the prognosis of the disease. And determine patients who require closer respiratory monitoring and more aggressive supportive therapies to avoid poor prognosis. The data was gathered using medical record data, the patient's medical history, and the onset of symptoms, as well as a blood sample to test the
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