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jeasiq-2276
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Modeling The Power Grid Network Of Iraq
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Recently, the theory of Complex Networks gives a modern insight into a variety of applications in our life. Complex Networks are used to form complex phenomena into graph-based models that include nodes and edges connecting them. This representation can be analyzed by using network metrics such as node degree, clustering coefficient, path length, closeness, betweenness, density, and diameter, to mention a few. The topology of the complex interconnections of power grids is considered one of the challenges that can be faced in terms of understanding and analyzing them. Therefore, some countries use Complex Networks concepts to model their power grid networks. In this work, the Iraqi Power Grid network (IPG) has been modeled, visua

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Multi-level model of the factors that affect the escalation of dust in Iraq
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In this research The study of Multi-level  model (partial pooling model) we consider The partial pooling model which is one Multi-level  models and one of  the Most important models and extensive use and application in the analysis of the data .This Model characterized by the fact that the treatments take hierarchical or structural Form, in this partial pooling models, Full Maximum likelihood FML was used to estimated parameters of partial pooling models (fixed and random ), comparison between the preference of these Models, The application was on the Suspended Dust data in Iraq, The data were for four and a half years .Eight stations were selected randomly  among the stations in Iraq. We use Akaik′s Informa

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of public debt on financial stability in Iraq
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Countries have faced the challenges of high levels of public debt and seek to define the optimum limits to reduce risks to which the financial system can be exposed and its impact on the economy as a whole. Hence the importance of research in studying the impact of internal and external public debt components on indicators of stability of the financial system for the period 2005-2017 for the purpose of knowing the extent of the financial stability indicators response to the high level of the public debt from its optimum ratio, as the aim of the research is to estimate and analyze the dynamic relationship of short and long term between the components of public debt and indicators of financial stability using the (ARDL) model that

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 26 2022
Journal Name
Bmc Public Health
Investigating the current environmental situation in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region during the third wave of COVID-19 pandemic: urban vs. rural context
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Abstract<sec> <title>Background

Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic led to a massive global socio-economic tragedy that has impacted the ecosystem. This paper aims to contextualize urban and rural environmental situations during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region.

Results

An online survey was conducted, 6770 participants were included in the final analysis, and 64% were females. The majority of the participants were urban citizens (74%). Over 50% of the urban residents significantly (p

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 1990
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
KEY TO THE SPECIES OF THE GENUS STACHYS L. (LABIATAE) IN IRAQ WITH THREE NEW RECORDS
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A simplified parallel key was presented in this work for the Taxa of Stackys L. wildly grown in Iraq. Three records within this genus were newly recorded to our country in the present work and they are S. kermanshahansis Rech S. setifera C.A. Mey. subsp setifera, S. setifera ssp iranica (Reck.) The characteristics of these new records were also given with some representative specimens.

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Aip Conference Proceedings
The study of the literature review of hybrid classification approaches to credit scoring
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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The use of water resources in light of the challenges of water security in Iraq
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Iraq suffers from lack of water resources supply because the headwaters of the rivers located outside its borders and the influence of upstream countries on the quantities of flowing water, in addition to the increase of pressure on available water as a result of population increase and not adopting the principle of rationalization where misuse and wastage and lack of strategic vision to treat and manage water use in accordance with the economic implications fall.  This is reflected fallout on water security and subsequently on national and food security, while the issue of using water resources is development top priority in different countries in the world because of the importance of water effect on the security of indivi

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 07 2008
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Hybrid Cipher System using Neural Network
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The objective of this work is to design and implement a cryptography system that enables the sender to send message through any channel (even if this channel is insecure) and the receiver to decrypt the received message without allowing any intruder to break the system and extracting the secret information. In this work, we implement an interaction between the feedforward neural network and the stream cipher, so the secret message will be encrypted by unsupervised neural network method in addition to the first encryption process which is performed by the stream cipher method. The security of any cipher system depends on the security of the related keys (that are used by the encryption and the decryption processes) and their corresponding le

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 28 2022
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Decentralization in Iraq: Addressing The State – Society Gap
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The implementation of decentralization in Iraq was asymmetrical, leading to different forms and paces of implementation. Comparing four cases of Basra, Kirkuk, Nineveh, and Sulaymaniyah indicate that these cases differ in their political stability and autonomy in a way that led to a different forms of decentralization. This paper argues that the higher the level of political autonomy from the federal government, the more efficient the governance model, and the more efficient the governance model, the more legitimate the system (trust), and the more legitimate a system, the more accountable elected officials. Therefore, it recommends reforming the institutional setup of decentralization by having districts, instead of provinces, as the bu

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 26 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Income Tax in Iraq and the Treatment of Married Women in Charge
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   Iraqi legislator taxation  married women in charge of the income tax treatment of the man in charge of tax and the application of the principle of equality of individuals to bear public burdens. The factor legislator women in charge of special treatment in some cases, taking into account the circumstances family allow  tax in the case of whether she was married to a man is unable to completely work and does not have a resource, as well as giving the legislator allow for her children. it observed that the amount of allowing still little is notcommensurate with the high cost of living in addition to limiting the tax allowances granted within the limits of the taxpayer and his immediate family did not take the legisla

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