Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
Fiscal policy is one of the important economic tools that affect economic development in general and human development in particular through its tools (public revenues, public expenditures, and the general budget).
It was hoped that the effects of fiscal policy during the study period (2004-2007) will positively reflect on human development indicators (health, education, income) by raising these indicators on the ground. After 2003, public revenues in Iraq increased due to increased revenues. However, despite this increase in public budgets, the actual impact on human development and its indicators was not equivalent to this increase in financial revenues. QR The value of the general budget allocations ha
... Show MoreNonlinear time series analysis is one of the most complex problems ; especially the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous variable (NARX) .Then ; the problem of model identification and the correct orders determination considered the most important problem in the analysis of time series . In this paper , we proposed splines estimation method for model identification , then we used three criterions for the correct orders determination. Where ; proposed method used to estimate the additive splines for model identification , And the rank determination depends on the additive property to avoid the problem of curse dimensionally . The proposed method is one of the nonparametric methods , and the simulation results give a
... Show MoreStudies and scientific research conducted in the field of communication have shown that broadcasting has a clear impact on the ideas, attitudes and behavior of the masses if it is better used in making the media message studied.
The role of this means is not only to present opinions and ideas, but also to influence trends by supporting or changing them. This is of course a matter for the nature of the content in terms of its formulation and the way it is prepared and presented. The power and appeal of a radio message is not complete by simply creating content without creating a distinctive design; and to what extent this content depends on the logic and psychology of persuasion.
The conviction of the cont
... Show More Chapter One : the importance of research and the need for it .
He has developed the concept of the curriculum has evolved as other educational concepts . Because the world has become a small village due to modern technology and are used in various aspects of life , and the rapid communication between the world can be accessed easily and conveniently . And that the purpose of education citizens who create social functions which ones to keep the culture , upgrade and repair flaws, and aims to develop the capacity of the individual and the preparations in the footsteps of scientific and technological development .
- The goal of research : The research aims to:
1 . What is the
Requires economic work finding built institutional paint strategies and policies are formulated general economic and clarity in its stated objectives and the involvement of all economic institutions, political and stakeholders to discuss all the issues of economic, financial, monetary and analyzed for the purpose of renewal energies and determine the duties and responsibilities, leaving full freedom to the private sector in the formation of institutions to carry out his duties economic, and that the institutional structures to create the right climate for the implementation of its economic policies, which would facilitate the task of the private sector, and this h
... Show MoreThis study examined the phenomenon of unemployment in Iraq and the extent of the contribution of these loans granted by banks to finance small and medium enterprises in reducing their rates. The temporal boundaries of the study included the period between (2012-2018). The spatial boundaries consisted of random sampling of six Iraqi banks) Where the government banks included (Rafidain, Rasheed and industrial), private banks included (the Iraqi Islamic Bank and the Gulf Commercial Bank and the Bank of the Middle East). In order to achieve the objective of the research in the light of the hypotheses drawn up, the research divided into three topics, the first section highlighting the reality of small and medium enterprises in Iraq and the lo
... Show MoreResearch Hypothesis from the fact that kicks off the effect that agricultural production in Iraq plays an important role in overcoming the food problem and achieving food security, but he became far far away from the provision of sufficient quantities of food products and then securing the Iraqi consumer food basket by the challenges faced by the agricultural sector.
To prove the hypothesis research in its structure in three axes came, the first axis eating historical significance to the subject of food over time periods as well as to clarify the concept of food security, and the second axis touched on the most important challenges facing the agricultural sector in Iraq and prevent the achievement of food requirements for members of
The study examines the religious references of the art of miniatures in the Iranian school "Bahzad model" completed in Iran during the twelfth century AH, according to the controls and characteristics of the authoritative references. The researcher presented the problem of research, its importance, the need for it and its purpose, defined the terms in the research. The theoretical framework came with three investigations. The first topic of the concept of the reference in the field of knowledge, which concluded the most important features of the reference, is that each symbolic existence corresponds to a real existence and symbolic presence is an input to the realization of the reference. The reference then becomes a sign that acts as a
... Show MoreThe Sebkha of geomorphological aspects of evaporative where climate leads active role, which forms part of the earth's surface in the form of Iraqi Mesopotamia plain who of the most fertile land, and because of natural factors and human Common turned most of the arable land to the territory of Sebkha. It was to determine the exact geomorphological associated of Sebkha formats by field work such as: Alnbaka, lakes, salt flats, and other forms of Small is: bridges salt, mud cracks, salt ponds, Rectangles and polygons salt, Sahaf salt, salt domes, salt gravel, bumps saline (salt points), Ash salt, salt bows, in detail and accurately documented Terrestrial Photogrammetry field and were compared to the levels and standards varieties have been
... Show More