Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
In this paper, the general framework for calculating the stability of equilibria, Hopf bifurcation of a delayed prey-predator system with an SI type of disease in the prey population, is investigated. The impact of the incubation period delay on disease transmission utilizing a nonlinear incidence rate was taken into account. For the purpose of explaining the predation process, a modified Holling type II functional response was used. First, the existence, uniform boundedness, and positivity of the solutions of the considered model system, along with the behavior of equilibria and the existence of Hopf bifurcation, are studied. The critical values of the delay parameter for which stability switches and the nature of the Hopf bifurcat
... Show MoreThe climate is one of the natural factors affecting agriculture, and the success of the cultivation of any agricultural crop depends on the nature of the prevailing climate in the area of its cultivation. If the main elements of climate: temperature, rain and humidity, affect the various agricultural activities that can be practiced, and the stages of growth of agricultural crops and also determine the areas of spread. When the climatic requirements of any crop are well available, its cultivation is successful and comfortable. The research starts from the problem of spatial variation of date production spatially in the study area and the reason for choosing dates because of its economic importance, so the research will be based on
... Show MoreThis study examined the phenomenon of unemployment in Iraq and the extent of the contribution of these loans granted by banks to finance small and medium enterprises in reducing their rates. The temporal boundaries of the study included the period between (2012-2018). The spatial boundaries consisted of random sampling of six Iraqi banks) Where the government banks included (Rafidain, Rasheed and industrial), private banks included (the Iraqi Islamic Bank and the Gulf Commercial Bank and the Bank of the Middle East). In order to achieve the objective of the research in the light of the hypotheses drawn up, the research divided into three topics, the first section highlighting the reality of small and medium enterprises in Iraq and the lo
... Show MoreThe Sebkha of geomorphological aspects of evaporative where climate leads active role, which forms part of the earth's surface in the form of Iraqi Mesopotamia plain who of the most fertile land, and because of natural factors and human Common turned most of the arable land to the territory of Sebkha. It was to determine the exact geomorphological associated of Sebkha formats by field work such as: Alnbaka, lakes, salt flats, and other forms of Small is: bridges salt, mud cracks, salt ponds, Rectangles and polygons salt, Sahaf salt, salt domes, salt gravel, bumps saline (salt points), Ash salt, salt bows, in detail and accurately documented Terrestrial Photogrammetry field and were compared to the levels and standards varieties have been
... Show MoreThis paper deals the prediction of the process of random spatial data of two properties, the first is called Primary variables and the second is called secondary variables , the method that were used in the prediction process for this type of data is technique Co-kriging , the method is usually used when the number of primary variables meant to predict for one of its elements is measured in a particular location a few (because of the cost or difficulty of obtaining them) compare with secondary variable which is the number of elements are available and highly correlated with primary variables, as was the&nbs
... Show MoreThe conservation of natural resources such as water is one of the areas that sustainable agriculture seeks to preserve, rationalize its use and protect it from pollution, because water is a specific factor for agriculture. Despite Iraq's possession of two international rivers, the Tigris and the Euphrates, which pour into the Shatt Al-Arab, it suffers from water shortages in recent times, As a result of several reasons combined, including water policies initiated by the riparian countries to reduce the quantities of water coming from the two rivers to Iraq, led by neighbor Turkey through the construction of dams and reservoirs and the establishment of irrigation projects, as well as climate changes from rising temperatures and lo
... Show MoreThe goal of the research is to highlight the role of the governance and its characteristics in increasing the tax outcome by implementing the laws, regulations and annual controls issued annually from the general authority for taxation for the financing of the general treasury of the state, Additional development and economic capacity, As the search shares a view of the governance and its characteristics and its ideas from increasing tax output. The analytical transparent approach was used by adopting the practice of practicalities of the general authority for tax For quotations in the senior cabinet section ,the revealing of the ongoing operations was relied on the revenue for each financial year, The tools adopted in the process of ana
... Show MoreSovereign wealth funds have attracted the attention of the governments of the oil and non-oil countries alike, with a variation of the size of those funds to those states, based on the size of the financial surpluses resulting from Alriadat oil or foreign reserves, or state revenues for other sovereign assets. Raj use these funds remarkably during the financial crises the world has seen, including the crisis of 2008-2007., And Iraq is a oil-producing countries, which has the third largest reserves of crude oil (Crude Oil) at the level of the Arab world and of 140 300)) million barrels after Saudi Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran, and the fourth reserves of crude oil in the world after issued Venezuela to the reserve
... Show MoreThe invasion and spread of cancer cells are two of the most notable characteristics of malignant tumors. Recent studies suggest that the epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) has been linked to this significant occurrence. It is linked to the absence of the epithelial brow and the presence of mesenchymal facial hair. The aims of the present study were to explore the immunohistochemical staining of vimentin and E-cadherin ex vivo as EMT markers and assess their potential as predictive biomarkers for transitional cell cancer (TCC). In this study, 55 paraffin-embedded biopsies from TCC patients and 10 autopsies that appeared to be normal were included. Immunohistochemistry was used to produce patterns of vimentin and E-cadherin expression. W
... Show More