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jeasiq-2276
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.

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Publication Date
Mon Nov 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Building a model to reduce the cost of hajj in the Iraqi Authority for Hajj and Umrah
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The research is summarized in the construction of a mathematical model using the most common methods in the science of Operations Research, which are the models of transportation and linear programming to find the best solution to the problem of the high cost of hajj in Iraq, and this is done by reaching the optimum number of pilgrims traveling through both land ports and the number Ideal for passengers traveling through airports by Iraqi Airways, instead of relying on the personal experience of the decision-maker in Hajj and Umrah Authority by identifying the best port for pilgrim's travel, which can tolerate right or wrong, has been based on scientific methods of Operations Research, the researcher built two mathematical models

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 26 2024
Journal Name
Sciences Journal Of Physical Education
المشكلات النفسية المترتبة على جائحة كوفيد 19 لدى طالبات وتدريسيات جامعة بغداد الممارسات وغير الممارسات للرياضة
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Publication Date
Thu Oct 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Using a novel approach to determine the pore pressure of West Qurna 15 oil well in South of Iraq
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Pore pressure means the pressure of the fluid filling the pore space of formations. When pore pressure is higher than hydrostatic pressure, it is named abnormal pore pressure or overpressure. When abnormal pressure occurred leads to many severe problems such as well kick, blowout during the drilling, then, prediction of this pressure is crucially essential to reduce cost and to avoid drilling problems that happened during drilling when this pressure occurred. The purpose of this paper is the determination of pore pressure in all layers, including the three formations (Yamama, Suliay, and Gotnia) in a deep exploration oil well in West Qurna field specifically well no. WQ-15 in the south of Iraq. In this study, a new appro

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of the competitiveness for commercial banks in Iraq for a period of 2004 – 2012
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This study was conducted on a sample of commercial banks in Iraq, chosen according number of considerations for twenty banks, contained two public banks and eighteen private banks.                                                                                             &

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 12 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
((Requirements for raising the efficiency and development of rail transport in Iraq according to proposed scenarios))
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Abstract:

 The research concerned the study of the railway transport sector in selected countries that sought to raise the efficiency of the railway network and develop it, after realizing the importance of this vital sector, which is a link between it and the rest of the other economic sectors.

The research sought to explain the methods, methods and procedures adopted by these countries for the development of the railway sector, and to benefit from these experiments to improve the efficiency of the railway transport sector in Iraq.

The railway transport sector in Iraq suffers from the erosion of railway lines and mobile units such as locomotives, pas

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
The follow up of experimentally infected hamsters with Leishmania tropica immunized with different vaccines
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Some parameters for advancement of Leishmania tropica infection were examined in three groups of golden hamsters, Group (1) inoculated with autoclaved killed Leishmania tropica , Group (2) inoculated with BCG vaccine alone while Group (3) Inoculated with mixed vaccine (autoclaved killed Leishmania with BCG). The follow up of experimentally infected animals with virulent isolation of Leishmania tropica was done for 90 days, the animals inoculated with mixed vaccine (autoclaved killed Leishmania with BCG) showed the minimum average in each of foot pad thickness (2.3 ± 0.05) mm after (60) days of infection, spleen enlargement (1.13±0.38) after (45) days of infection, spleen length (23.9±0.08) mm after (30) days of infection, liver weight(3.

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Modified Model to Calculate Low Earth Orbit (LEO) for A satellite with Atmospheric Drag
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In this paper, the satellite in low Earth orbit (LEO) with atmospheric drag perturbation have been studied, where Newton Raphson method to solve Kepler equation for elliptical orbit (i=63 , e = 0.1and 0.5, Ω =30 , ω =100 ) using a new modified model. Equation of motion solved using 4th order Rang Kutta method to determine the position and velocity component which were used to calculate new orbital elements after time step ) for heights (100, 200, 500 km) with (A/m) =0.00566 m2/kg. The results showed that all orbital elements are varies with time, where (a, e, ω, Ω) are increased while (i and M) are decreased its values during 100 rotations.The satellite will fall to earth faster at the lower height and width using big values for ecce

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 15 2023
Journal Name
Sumer 2
Predictive value of C-reactive protein, D-dimer, Hemoglobin and Lactate dehydrogenase levels in diagnosing COVID-19 patients
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Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused enormous issues worldwide and is the most infectious pandemic. This study included 50 subjects (evenly distributed between sexes) and their range of ages starting from 2 to 67 years. According to the study's result, the ages and genders of subjects include susceptibility to COVID-19. Males were found to be more infected than females, and the ages of 36 to 67 were more common than other age ranges. Also, BMI calculations revealed that male patients with COVID-19 have the highest percentage of obesity. The clinical parameter results have been found serum C‐reactive protein (CRP) as an essential indicator that changes significantly in infection with COVID‐19 an

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 30 2021
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Clinical Course and Disease`s Outcome Aspects of COVID-19 Pediatric Patients in Ibn Al-Khateeb Isolation Hospital
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Background: Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a communicable disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). It was first identified in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, and has since spread globally, leading to an ongoing pandemic.

Aim of study: to review the clinical, lab investigation and imaging techniques, in pediatric age group affected COVID-19 to help medical experts better understand and supply timely diagnosis and treatment.

Subjects and methods: this study is a retrospective descriptive clinical study. The medical records of patients were analyzed. Information’s recorded include demographic data, exposure history, symptoms, signs, laboratory findin

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 06 2009
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Cox proportion hazard model for patients with hepatitis disease in Iraq
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Cox regression model have been used to estimate proportion hazard model for patients with hepatitis disease recorded in Gastrointestinal and Hepatic diseases Hospital in Iraq for (2002 -2005). Data consists of (age, gender, survival time terminal stat). A Kaplan-Meier method has been applied to estimate survival function and hazerd function.

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