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jeasiq-2276
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 21 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Operational Research
Aggregate production planning of Abu Ghraib Dairy factories based on forecasting and goal programming
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Publication Date
Tue Jan 08 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Charge density distributions and electron scattering form factors of 19F, 27Al and 25Mg nuclei
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An effective two-body density operator for point nucleon system folded with two-body correlation functions, which take account of the effect of the strong short range repulsion and the strong tensor force in the nucleon-nucleon forces, is produced and used to derive an explicit form for ground state two-body charge density distributions (2BCDD's) and elastic electron scattering form factors F (q) for 19F, 27Al and 25Mg nuclei. It is found that the inclusion of the two-body short range correlations (SRC) has the feature of reducing the central part of the 2BCDD's significantly and increasing the tail part of them slightly, i.e. it tends to increase the probability of transferring the protons from the central region of the nucleus towards

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 30 2015
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Weight loss program outcome of obese attending AL-Kindy obesity research and therapy unit
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Background: overweight and obesity are the fifth leadingrisk for global deaths. At least 2.8 million adults die eachyear as a result of being overweight or obese. Numerousstudies show that weight loss, even if only 5-10%,significantly improves dyslipidemia, hypertension, diabetesmellitus, risk for osteoarthritis and its symptoms and risk forselected cancers.Objectives: is to evaluate the effect of diet and exerciseprogram on anthropometric and biochemical status of adultobese patients.Methods: descriptive study. 124 adult obese patientsattending Al Kindy obesity research and therapy unit duringDecember 2012 were included. Measurement of Wt, heightHt and WC performed and BMI was calculated. Laboratorytest analysis, on the fasting state, w

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 31 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Preparation of Light Fuel Fractions from Heavy Vacuum Gas Oil by Thermal Cracking Reaction
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This work deals with thermal cracking of heavy vacuum gas oil which produced from the top of vacuum distillation unit at Al- DURA refinery, by continuous process. An experimental laboratory plant scale was constructed in laboratories of chemical engineering department, Al-Nahrain University and Baghdad University. The thermal cracking process was carried out at temperature ranges between 460-560oC and atmospheric pressure with liquid hourly space velocity (LHSV) equal to 15hr-1.The liquid product from thermal cracking unit was distilled by atmospheric distillation device according to ASTM D-86 in order to achieve two fractions, below 220oC as a gasoline fraction and above 220oC as light cycle o

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 31 2012
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Evaluation Study of Glass Fiber Reinforced Polyester and Kevlar Reinforced Polyester by Taguchi Method
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     In the present investigation two different types of fiber reinforced polymer composites were prepared by hand lay-up method using three different parameters (curing temperature, pressing load and fiber volume fraction). These composites were prepared from the polyester resin as the matrix material reinforced with glass fibers as first group of samples and mat Kevlar fibers as the second group, both with different volume fractions (4%, 8%, and 12%) of fibers. They were then tested by tensile strength and impact strength. The main objective in this study is to use Taguchi method for predicting the better parameters that give the better tensile and impact strength to the composites, and then preparing composites at

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 01 2019
Journal Name
Sylwan Journal
Immunohistochemical evaluation for osteonectin on healing process of intrabony defect treated by Panax ginseng
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Background: The repair of bone defects remains a major clinical orthopaedic challenge. Bone is a highly vascularised tissue reliant on the close spatial and temporal connection between blood vessels and bone cells to maintain skeletal integrity. This study aimed to study the efficacy of Panax ginseng as a osteoinducer in tibia of rat and as a stimulator for bone healing and to study the immunohistochemical expression of osteonectin as bone formation markers in experimental and control groups during bone healing. Material and method: : In this study thirty albino male rats , weighting (200-300) gram ,aged (2-3) months ,will be used under control conditions of temperature ,drinking and food consumption. The animals will subject for an

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Publication Date
Wed May 25 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Gamma-Ray Shielding Effectiveness of Clay and Boron Doped Clay Material at Different Thicknesses
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      In this work, the gamma-ray shielding parameters of red clay and boron-doped red clay with different sample thicknesses are theoretically and experimentally reported. These shielding parameters are considered at a photon energy of 0.662 MeV emitted from 137Cs. The theoretical calculations are demonstrated using the XCom software program, while a scintillation detector, NaI(TI), with an efficiency of 98% is used to attain the experimental results of the mass attenuation coefficient of the prepared samples. The acquired results show that the boron-doped clay delivers a higher mass attenuation coefficient as compared to those of pure clay. Additionally, the mass attenuation coefficient exhibits an increasing behavior w

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 23 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Estimation and Analysis of Solar Radiation on Horizontal and Inclined Surface for Baghdad City
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    The knowledge of the quantity of total solar radiation on horizontal and inclined surfaces is very important in the calculations of heating and cooling loads in architecture and in the design of certain solar energy applications such as photovoltaic and solar collectors. This paper estimates the total solar radiation on inclined surfaces in Baghdad (Lat. 330 21' N      440 14' long and 34m above MSL).  A good model was used to estimate hourly total solar radiation on the inclined surface with different elevations (150, 300, 450, 600, 750, 900) from a horizontal surface. The mean hourly, daily and monthl

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 25 2017
Journal Name
Bn Al-haitham Jour. For Pure & Appl. Sci.
Synthesis of Some New Heterocyclic Fused Rings Compounds Based on 5-Aryl-1,3,4-Oxadiazole
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The work includes synthesis and characterization of some new heterocyclic compounds, as flow: The compound (3) (5-(4-chlorophenyl) -2-hydrazinyl-1,3,4-oxadiazole was synthesized by using two methods; the first method includes the direct reaction between hydrazine hydrate 80% and 5-(4-chlorophenyl)-2- (ethylthio) 1,3,4-oxadiazole (1), the second method involves converting 5-(4-chlorophenyl)-1,3,4-oxadiazol-2-amine (2) to diazonium salt then reducing this salt to compound (3) by stannous chloride. Compound (3) was used as starting material for synthesizing several fused heterocyclic compounds. The compound 6-(4-chlorophenyl)[1,2.4] triazolo [3,4,b][1,3,4] oxadiazole-3-(2H) thione (compound 4) was synthesized from the reaction of compound (3)

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 23 2011
Journal Name
International Journal Of The Physical Sciences
Fast prediction of power transfer stability index based on radial basis function neural network
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