Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
Soil movement resulting due unsupported excavation nearby axially loaded piles imposes significant structural troubles on geotechnical engineers especially for piles that are not designed to account for loss of lateral confinement. In this study the field excavation works of 7.0 m deep open tunnel was continuously followed up by the authors. The work is related to the project of developing the Army canal in the east of Baghdad city in Iraq. A number of selected points around the field excavation are installed on the ground surface at different horizontal distance. The elevation and coordinates of points are recorded during 23 days with excavation progress period. The field excavation process was numerically simulated by using the finite
... Show MorePower-electronic converters are essential elements for the effective interconnection of renewable energy sources to the power grid, as well as to include energy storage units, vehicle charging stations, microgrids, etc. Converter models that provide an accurate representation of their wideband operation and interconnection with other active and passive grid components and systems are necessary for reliable steady state and transient analyses during normal or abnormal grid operating conditions. This paper introduces two Laplace domain-based approaches to model buck and boost DC-DC converters for electromagnetic transient studies. The first approach is an analytical one, where the converter is represented by a two-port admittance model via mo
... Show MoreThe corrosion of carbon steel in single phase (water with 0.1N NaCl ) and two immiscible phases (kerosene-water) using turbulently agitated system is investigated. The experiments are carried out for Reynolds number (Re) range of 38000 to 95000 corresponding to rotational velocities from 600 to 1400 rpm using circular disk turbine agitator at 40 0C. In two-phase system test runs are carried out in aqueous phase (water) concentrations of 1 % vol., 5 % vol., 8% vol., and 16% vol. mixed with kerosene at various Re. The effect of Reynolds number (Re), percent of dispersed phase, dispersed drops diameter, and number of drops per unit volume on the corrosion rate is investigated and discussed. Test runs are carried out using two types of
... Show MoreIn this paper, Bayes estimators of the parameter of Maxwell distribution have been derived along with maximum likelihood estimator. The non-informative priors; Jeffreys and the extension of Jeffreys prior information has been considered under two different loss functions, the squared error loss function and the modified squared error loss function for comparison purpose. A simulation study has been developed in order to gain an insight into the performance on small, moderate and large samples. The performance of these estimators has been explored numerically under different conditions. The efficiency for the estimators was compared according to the mean square error MSE. The results of comparison by MSE show that the efficiency of B
... Show MoreBeryllium Zinc Oxide (BexZn1-xO) ternary nano thin films were deposited using the pulsed laser deposition (PLD) technique under a vacuum condition of 10-3 torr at room temperature on glass substrates with different films thicknesses, (300, 600 and 900 nm). UV-Vis spectra study found the optical band gap for Be0.2Zn0.8O to be (3.42, 3.51 and 3.65 eV) for the (300, 600 and 900nm) film thicknesses, respectively which is larger than the value of zinc oxide ZnO (3.36eV) and smaller than that of beryllium oxide BeO (10.6eV). While the X-ray diffraction (XRD) pattern analysis of ZnO, BeO and Be 0.2 Zn 0.8 O powder and nano-thin films indicated a hexa
... Show MoreThe new of compounds synthesized by sequence reactions starting from a reaction of 3-phenylenediamine or 4-phenylenediamine with chloroacetyl chloride to produce the compounds [I]a,b, then the compounds[I]a,b reacted with sodium azide to yield compounds[II]a,b that reacted 1,3-dipolarcycloaddition reaction with acrylic acid to give compounds [III]a,b these compounds reacted with methanol led to ester compounds[IV]a,b then reacted with hydrazine to give acid hydrazide [V]a,b . Finally compounds [V]a,b reacted with aromatic aldehydes to product shiff bases derivatives. The compounds characterized by mp. , IR, 1HNMR in addition to mass spectroscopy for some of them the liquid crystals properties were studied by using polarized optical microsco
... Show MoreThis study aimed at isolating uropathogenic Escherichia coli from urinary tract infections (UTIs) of human and cattle to examine the molecular diversity and phylogenetic relationship of the isolates. A total of 100 urine samples were collected from UTIs of human and cattle. The isolates identification was done using routine diagnostic methods and confirmed by Vitek2. Antimicrobial susceptibility was tested against 10 antimicrobials. Random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD)-polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was applied to identify the genetic diversity among E. coli isolates from human and animal origin by using five different octamer primers. The gelJ software for the phylogenetic analysis created Dendrograms. Out of 50 human urine samples, E.
... Show MoreThe current study included the separation of three alkaloid compounds from Anastatica Hierochuntica and studied the effect of the these compounds on cancerous cells , specifically liver cancer it was found that compound number one is the most influential or inhibiting at 50 percent followed by compound number three when using concentration of 400 μg/mL.
Three N-(hydroxylphenyl) dimethylmaleimides were directly prepared in good yields (81-86)% from the reaction of dimethylmaleic anhydride with amino phenols. The prepared imides were esterified to the corresponding benzoates, methacrylates and cinnamates via their reaction with different acid chlorides in the presence of triethylamine. The prepared esters were tested as plasticizers for PVC via preparing of thirty six samples of PVC with the prepared esters in certain weight ratio followed by recording their softening points. Comparison the results with the universal plasticizers for PVC (DOP) and (DBP) indicated that the prepared esters in general have high plasticizing efficiency.
In this study Oscillatoria limnetica and Chroococus minor were isolated ?purified and identification from water canal around Baghdad University Campus. The water of this canals originally from Tigris River. BG-11 culture media was used for their cultivation in suitable laboratory conditions (25c°, 200µE/m2/sec) for 16:8 hrs. Light: dark. Each culture was harvested at the end of exponential phase .Organic solvents used for extraction were Ethanol? Hexane and Methanol 95% to extract the crude active Intracellular and Extracellular substances, and evaporated down to dryness .Antibacterial and antifungal activity of these different extracts were evaluated against 6 strains of gram positive bacteria and gram negative bacteria in additi
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