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Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq

Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 13 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Relations Between Water Stress, Selenium and Brassinolide Hormone on Some Vegetative Parameters and Elements Content of Coriander Plant Coriandrum sativum L.

    The aim of study was to  assess water stress for 2,8,14 days and spraying selenium at 0,10,20 mg/L-1 and brassinolide 0,1,2 mg/L-1 on vegetative growth and macro elements content (NPK) for Coriander (Coriandrum astivum L.) plant, The experiment was performed with Factorial Randomized Block Design (R.B.C.D) with three replicates .The results were summarized as follows: 1- The period of sever water stress for 14 days was passive effect on growth parameters. 2-  The means of elements content  NPK content  was increased at moderate stress for 8 days. 3- The effect of selenium and brassinolide was positively to increase studied parameters. 4- Selenium and Brassinolide decreased water stress also the triple in

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis, Structural, Morphological Characterization, and Cytotoxicity Assays of Metal Complexes Decorated SiO2 Nanoparticles Against Breast Cancer Cell Lines (MDA-MB-231)

في هذا البحث تم تحضير المركبات المعدنية الجديدة لأيونات البلاتين (الرباعي) و الذهب (الثلاثي) مع ليكاند قاعدة مانخ جديد مشتق من السيبروفلوكساسين . تم استخدام المعقدات بعد ذلك كمصدر  لتحضير جزيئات                              عن طريق ترسيب المعقدات على مسام دقائق السيليكا النانوية.                                                                      Si/Au2O3 Si/PtO2  تم تشخيص الليكاند و معقداته

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 18 2023
Journal Name
Research On Chemical Intermediates
Effectual and rapid synthesis of bis(pyrazolyl)methanes and pyrazolopyranopyrimidines catalyzed by nano-[TSPSED][Cl]2 and investigating their biological activity

This investigation reports application of a mesoporous nanomaterial based on dicationic ionic liquid bonded to amorphous silica, namely nano-N,N,N′,N′-tetramethyl-N-(silican-propyl)-N′-sulfo-ethane-1,2-diaminium chloride (nano-[TSPSED][Cl]2), as an extremely effectual and recoverable catalyst for the generation of bis(pyrazolyl)methanes and pyrazolopyranopyrimidines in solvent-free conditions. In both synthetic protocols, the performance of this catalyst was very useful and general and presented attractive features including short reaction times with high yields, reasonable turnover frequency and turnover number values, easy workup, high performance under mild conditions, recoverability and reusability in 5 consecutive runs without lo

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Publication Date
Sat Mar 17 2012
Journal Name
Environmental Science And Pollution Research Volume
Equilibrium, kinetic, and thermodynamic biosorption of Pb(II), Cr(III), and Cd(II) ions by dead anaerobic biomass from synthetic wastewater

Purpose Heavy metals are toxic pollutants released into the environment as a result of different industrial activities. Biosorption of heavy metals from aqueous solutions is a new technology for the treatment of industrial wastewater. The aim of the present research is to highlight the basic biosorption theory to heavy metal removal. Materials and methods Heterogeneous cultures mostly dried anaerobic bacteria, yeast (fungi), and protozoa were used as low-cost material to remove metallic cations Pb(II), Cr(III), and Cd(II) from synthetic wastewater. Competitive biosorption of these metals was studied. Results The main biosorption mechanisms were complexation and physical adsorption onto natural active functional groups. It is observed that

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 25 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Synthesis of New beta-lactam , 2-thioxoimidazolidin-4-one and Imidazole-5-one Derivatives from thiosemicarbazide and Their Biological Activity Study

        New derivatives of thiosemicarbazide were synthesized by reaction of different aromatic aldehydes and ketones with thiosemicarbazide to give schiff-bases 1(a-d) . schiff-bases have been used for synthesized the thioimidazolidine 2(a-d)  by reaction of schiff-bases with ethyl chloroacetatein in presence of anhydrous sodium acetate that transformed part of it in to Beta-lactam 3(a-b) compounds with phenyl acetic acid and thionyl chloride , The compounds 4(a-b) came from the reactor of 4-bromobenzaldehyde with compounds 2(a-b) , as well as reaction of compounds 2(b-d) with methyl iodide and anhydrous potassium carbonate to give 5 (b-d) , then added  hydrazine hydrate formed 6(b-d) , then

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 01 2016
Journal Name
Chem Istry & Chem Ical Technology
SYN TH ESIS, CH ARACTERIZATION AN D AN TIM ICROBIAL ACTIVITY OF N EW N UCLEOSIDE AN ALOGUES FROM BEN ZOTRIAZOLE

Novel derivatives of 1-(´1, ´3, ´4, ´6-tetra benzoyl-β-D-fructofuranosyl)-1H- benzotriazole and 1-(´1, ´3, ´4, ´6-tetra benzoyl-β-D-fructofuranosyl)-1H- benzotriazole carrying Schiff bases moiety were synthesised and fully characterised. The protection of D- fructose using benzoyl chloride was synthesized, followed by nucleophilic addition/elimination between benzotria- zole and chloroacetyl chloride to give 1-(1- chloroacetyl)- 1H-benzotriazole. The next step was condensation reaction of protected fructose and 1-(1-chloroacetyl)-1H- benzotriazole producing a new nucleoside analogue. The novel nucleoside analogues underwent a second conden- sation reaction with different aromatic and aliphatic amines to provide new Schiff b

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 28 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Synthesis, Characterization and Antibacterial Activity of New Chalcones Derived from New Aldehyde; 4-[5-(4`tolyl)-1,3,4-thiadiazole-2-yl] benzaldehyde

 New chalcones of  -{ -  -   -   y  -     - hi di z  e- -y    he y  - -    e e- -  e-    -        - substituted phenyl have been prepared from condensation of  a new of  4-[5-(4`-tolyl)1,3,4-thiadiazole-2-yl] benzaldehyde (which is synthesized by the reaction of  2- amino-5- (4`-tolyl) -1,3,4-thiadiazole and benzaldehyde) with 3- or 4- substituted acetophenones in alkaline medium. The physical, CHNS analysis and spectral data of the synthesized compounds were determined. The biological activity evaluated of new compounds showed that many of these compounds possess antiba

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 27 2023
Journal Name
8th Engineering And 2nd International Conference For College Of Engineering – University Of Baghdad: Coec8-2021 Proceedings
Experimental study of natural convection heat transfer on an enclosure partially filled porous medium heated from below by constant heat flux

This study reports on natural convection heat transfer in a square enclosure of length (L=20 cm) with a saturated porous medium (solid glass beads) having same fluid (air) at lower horizontal layer and free air fill in the rest of the cavity's space. The experimental work has been performed under the effects of heating from bottom by constant heat flux q=150,300,450,600 W/m2 for four porous layers thickness Hp (2.5,5,7.5,1) cm and three heaters length δ(20,14,7) cm. The top enclosure wall was good insulated and the two side walls were symmetrically cooled at constant temperature. Four layers of porous media with small porosity, Rayleigh number range (60.354 - 241.41) and (Da) 3.025x10-8 has been investigated. The obtained data of temperatu

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 22 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Experimental and Finite Elements Analysis Study of Warming Effect on Deboned Force for Embedded NiTinol Wire into Linear Low Density Polyethylene

This study presents the debonding propagation in single NiTi wire shape memory alloy into linear low-density polyethylene matrix composite the study of using the pull-out test. The aim of this study is to investigate the pull-out tests to check the interfacial strength of the polymer composite in two cases, with activation NiTinol wire and without activation. In this study, shape memory alloy NiTinol wire 2 mm diameter and linear fully annealed straight shape were used. The study involved experimental and finite element analysis and eventually comparison between them. This pull-out test is considered a substantial test because its results have a relation with behavior of smart composite materials. The pull-out test was carried out by a u

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2020
Journal Name
International Journal Of Pharmaceutical Research
Phytochemical investigation,anti-proliferative and antioxidant- activities of Iraqi Capparisspinosa L. (Family Capparidaceae) against MCF-7 human Breast cancer cell line

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