Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
Background: The global threat of COVID-19 outbreak and on the 11 March 2020, WHO acknowledged that the virus would likely spread to all countries across the globe and declared the coronavirus outbreak a pandemic which is the fifth pandemic since 20 century and this has brought human lives to a sudden and complete lockdown and the confirmed cases of this disease and deaths continue to rise in spite of people around the world are taking important actions to mitigate and decrease transmission and save lives. Objectives: To assess the effect of exercise and physical activity on the immunity against COVID-19. Methods: Collected electronic databases including (Medline, EMBASE, Google Scholar, PubMed and Web of Science) were searched with
... Show MoreZubair Formation is one of the richest petroleum systems in Southern Iraq. This formation is composed mainly of sandstones interbedded with shale sequences, with minor streaks of limestone and siltstone. Borehole collapse is one of the most critical challenges that continuously appear in drilling and production operations. Problems associated with borehole collapse, such as tight hole while tripping, stuck pipe and logging tools, hole enlargement, poor log quality, and poor primary cement jobs, are the cause of the majority of the nonproductive time (NPT) in the Zubair reservoir developments. Several studies released models predicting the onset of borehole collapse and the amount of enlargement of the wellbore cross-section. However, assump
... Show Moreالناصر، عامر عبد الرزاق عبد المحسن والكبيسي، صلاح الدين عواد كريم. 2018. إمكانية تبني الحوسبة السحابية الهجينة في الجامعات العراقية : دراسة تحليلية باستخدام أنموذج القبول التكنولوجي. مجلة الإدا
The two parameters of Exponential-Rayleigh distribution were estimated using the maximum likelihood estimation method (MLE) for progressively censoring data. To find estimated values for these two scale parameters using real data for COVID-19 which was taken from the Iraqi Ministry of Health and Environment, AL-Karkh General Hospital. Then the Chi-square test was utilized to determine if the sample (data) corresponded with the Exponential-Rayleigh distribution (ER). Employing the nonlinear membership function (s-function) to find fuzzy numbers for these parameters estimators. Then utilizing the ranking function transforms the fuzzy numbers into crisp numbers. Finally, using mean square error (MSE) to compare the outcomes of the survival
... Show MoreThe typical test for diagnosis of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is a reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) technique, but the chest CT scan might play a complementary role at the first detection of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia. Objectives: To determine the sensitivity of CT scan on patients with COVID-19 in Al-Najaf, Iraq, and to compare the accuracy of CT scan with that of RT-PCR technique. Material and Method: This is a prospective study. The patients suspicious of having COVID-19 infection and respiratory symptoms were registered. All patients were diagnosed by RT-PCR and chest CT. Diagnostic performance of CT was intended using RT-PCR as the reference sta
... Show MoreBackground: coronavirus 19 is a beta-coronavirus, enveloped and roughly spherical with approximately 60 to 140 nm in diameter with positive-sense single-stranded RNA genome.
Objectives: Measurement of interleukin 6 (IL6) level in a group of patients with confirmed Covid19 infection and its correlation with many hematological and biochemical parameters , mainly lymphocyte , neutrophil count and their ratio , platelet count , serum ferritin , C reactive protein as well as D-dimer level
Subjects and Methods: This study was conducted on 60 PCR positive patients variably affected by COVID-19 , cases collected sequentially from June till November 20
... Show MoreThe need for detection and investigation of the causes of pollution of the marshes and submit a statistical study evaluated accurately and submitted to the competent authorities and to achieve this goal was used to analyze the factorial analysis and then obtained the results from this analysis from a sample selected from marsh water pollutants which they were: (Electrical Conductivity: EC, Power of Hydrogen: PH, Temperature: T, Turbidity: TU, Total Dissolved Solids: TDS, Dissolved Oxygen: DO). The size of sample (44) sites has been withdrawn and examined in the laboratories of the Iraqi Ministry of Environment. By illustrating SPSS program) the results had been obtained. The most important recommendation was to increase the pumping of addit
... Show MoreObjectives: The present study aims at detecting the depression among nurses who provide care for infected patients with corona virus phenomenon and to find out relationships between the depression and their demographic characteristics of age, gender, marital status, type of family, education, and years of experience of nurses in heath institutions, infection by corona virus, and their participation in training courses.
Methodology: A descriptive study is established for a period from October 10th, 2020 to April 15th, 2021. The study is conducted on a purposive (non-probability) sample of (100) nurse who are providing care for patients with COVID-19 and they are selected from the isolation wards. The instrument of the study is develope