Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
In this paper a prey - predator model with harvesting on predator species with infectious disease in prey population only has been proposed and analyzed. Further, in this model, Holling type-IV functional response for the predation of susceptible prey and Lotka-Volterra functional response for the predation of infected prey as well as linear incidence rate for describing the transition of disease are used. Our aim is to study the effect of harvesting and disease on the dynamics of this model.
The present study aimed to asspssment the nutrition a program to sample of student from internal departments of Baghdad University (AL-Jadiriya Complex) and the University of AL-MustanSiriya four grades and aged (19-24) year study included 150 male and female students by (75) male and (75) of female register height, weight nd body mass index were study habits and food pattern of the same sample (150) and by aspecial form and take the personal information interviews and record information on food intake during 24 hour .noted adifference practie in the weights and longths of male and female (sample).
BMI rates were within the normal weight as the value of BMI for males aged (19- 21)and (22-24) and (22.21) and (23,37),respectively and th
The research problem was to identify the impact of monetary policies on economic growth in the oil and non-oil countries. The researcher chose the Republic of Iraq as an example for the oil countries and the Arab Republic of Egypt as an example for the non-oil countries to hold a comparison on the impact of monetary policies.
The research found that the monetary policies and their tools in the Iraqi economy affect the rate of GDP growth by 73%, which shows the strong impact of monetary policies on the economic growth in the Iraqi economy as an example of an oil state. GDP growth rate of 61%, indicating the impact of monetary policies on economic growth in the
The estimation of the regular regression model requires several assumptions to be satisfied such as "linearity". One problem occurs by partitioning the regression curve into two (or more) parts and then joining them by threshold point(s). This situation is regarded as a linearity violation of regression. Therefore, the multiphase regression model is received increasing attention as an alternative approach which describes the changing of the behavior of the phenomenon through threshold point estimation. Maximum likelihood estimator "MLE" has been used in both model and threshold point estimations. However, MLE is not resistant against violations such as outliers' existence or in case of the heavy-tailed error distribution. The main goal of t
... Show MoreBackground: Osteoarthritis is a chronic pathology of the joints causing disability and morbidity. Diacerein is a disease-modifying agent indicated for osteoarthritis management with enhanced performance and have much lower side effects profile than conventional non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. Oral administration of Diacerein is associated with a laxative effect, thus causing treatment discontinuation. Aim: This study aimed to evaluate the activity of Diacerein novasome-based transdermal gel compared with standard oral treatment in the management of induced osteoarthritis in a rat model. Materials and methods: A single intra-articular injection of monosodium iodoacetate was administered to the left knee joint, resulting in the develop
... Show MoreThis study concerns the role of activated carbon (AC) from palm raceme as a support material for the enhancement of lipase-catalyzed reactions in an aqueous solution, with deep eutectic solvent (DES) as a co-solvent. The effects of carbonization temperature, impregnation ratio, and carbonization time on lipase activity were studied. The activities of Amano lipase from Burkholderia cepacia (AML) and lipase from the porcine pancreas (PPL) were used to investigate the optimum conditions for AC preparation. The results showed that AC has more interaction with PPL and effectively provides greater enzymatic activity compared with AML. The optimum treatment conditions of AC samples that yield the highest enzymatic activity were 0.5 (NaOH (
... Show MoreIn this survey, there are 14 species belonging to 14 genera, nine families and two orders, collected on Macrofungi from Tikrit city, Salahadin Governorate, North Central of Iraq. The members of Coleoptera were more abundant than flies on Macrofungi.
The family of Ciidae and Leiodidae (Order, Coleoptera), Mycetophilidae (Order, Diptera), and 6 species are recorded for the first time for insect fauna of Iraq.
This study attempts to provide an approach analysis for the news, depending on the bases and principles which conceptuality semiotic researchers of this field first of them «A. J. Gremas» for the theory of «narrative discourse analysis», to more clarify we tried to apply it on a published press- news, to concludes the most important steps and methods that are necessary to follows gain more understanding of the press- news.