Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
Abstract
Leadership has now become a process for applying methods and techniques that make the Organization at the top of its competitive pyramid a greater market share. Leadership has become a focus for all leaders and managers، and leaders and managers are increasingly seeking to develop their skills and leadership skills. The research started with a clear problem of specific questions to ensure that the general objective of the research is to describe the characteristics of the leader and to clarify the dimensions of empowering the workers and to highlight the role of the leader in empowering the workers. The study examines the relation between the role of the leader in
... Show MoreThe usual methods of distance determination in Astronomy parallax and Spectroscopic with Expansion Methods are seldom applicable to Nebulae. In this work determination of the distances to individual Nebulae are calculated and discussed. The distances of Nebulae to the Earth are calculated. The accuracy of the distance is tested by using Aladin sky Atlas, and comparing Nebulae properties were derived from these distance made with statistical distance determination. The results showed that angular Expansions may occur in a part of the nebulae that is moving at a velocity different than the observed velocity. Also the results of the comparison of our spectroscopic distances with the trig
The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) on EOS/Aqua satellite provides diverse measurements of Methane (CH4) distribution at different pressure levels in the Earth's atmosphere. The focus of this research is to analyze the vertical variations of (CH4) volume mixing ratio (VMR) time-series data at four Standard pressure levels SPL (925, 850, 600, and 300 hPa) in the troposphere above six cities in Iraq from January 2003 to September 2016. The analysis results of monthly average CH4VMR time-series data show a significant increase between 2003 and 2016, especially from 2009 to 2016; the minimum values of CH4 were in 2003 while the maximum values were in 2016. The vertical distribution of CH4<
... Show MoreThis study presents a practical method for solving fractional order delay variational problems. The fractional derivative is given in the Caputo sense. The suggested approach is based on the Laplace transform and the shifted Legendre polynomials by approximating the candidate function by the shifted Legendre series with unknown coefficients yet to be determined. The proposed method converts the fractional order delay variational problem into a set of (n + 1) algebraic equations, where the solution to the resultant equation provides us the unknown coefficients of the terminated series that have been utilized to approximate the solution to the considered variational problem. Illustrative examples are given to show that the recommended appro
... Show MorePurpose: The purpose of the study is to compare and evaluate Earnings Management in Tunisia and Iraq. Theoretical framework: Earnings Management is an important topic that has been studied by a significant number of researchers, as well as those who are interested in the accounting profession. Earnings Management has gotten a lot of attention from academics, professionals, and other interested parties in recent years (e.g. Kliestik et al., 2020; Rahman et al., 2021; Gamra &Ellouze, 2021) Design/methodology/approach: The sample includes ten banks listed on the Bourse of Tunisia and Iraq Stock Exchanges for the year 2017. We have used a model of Kothari et al., (2005) as a tool to measure Earnings Management in both mark
... Show MoreA groundwater quality assessment has been carried out in northeast part of Anbar governorate in western Iraq. We analyzed hydrochemical parameters such as pH, electrical conductivity, total dissolved solids presence of ions to describe groundwater quality. The study area has the only confined aquifer within the geological formation extended in area. Values of groundwater hydrochemical parameters were ranged from (7) to (7.9) for ph, (1599) to (6800) µmhos/cm for electrical conductivity (EC) and (1048) to (4446) mg/l for total dissolved solids (TDS). The origins and types of groundwater in the area were of marine origin and MgCl2 water type while only (6) samples were of continental origin and Na2SO4 wate
... Show MoreNations are developed with education and knowledge that raise the status of society in its various segments, beyond that it leads to underdevelopment and deterioration in various sectors, whether economic, health, social, etc. If we considered the general name of The ministry of Education & Scientific Studies, then the second part seems to be not functioning, since scientific research has no material allocation and remains based on the material potential of the university professor. As for the first half of the topic, the reality of the situation reveals problems related to the Holy Trinity of Education which is (Professor - Student - the scientific method) where universities suffer at the present time from this problem, and
... Show MoreThis paper assesses the impact of changes and fluctuations in bank deposits on the money supply in Iraq. Employing the research constructs an Error Correction Model (ECM) using monthly time series data from 2010 to 2015. The analysis begins with the Phillips-Perron unit root test to ascertain the stationarity of the time series and the Engle and Granger cointegration test to examine the existence of a long-term relationship. Nonparametric regression functions are estimated using two methods: Smoothing Spline and M-smoothing. The results indicate that the M-smoothing approach is the most effective, achieving the shortest adjustment period and the highest adjustment ratio for short-term disturbances, thereby facilitating a return
... Show MoreFinancial markets play an important role in the economy, as it contributes to the financial and economic system of the state stability, as it reduces the adoption of the companies on the loans granted by the banks, as financial markets contribute to attracting and channeling savings to small savers who will be able to buy a number of shares proportional to their savings, It also provides them the place of exchange, and play technology and information systems an important role in facilitating exchanges and increased market activity, in this research touched on the importance of information technology in effect on the activity of the financial markets. Research is divided into three demands of the first concept of eating and the importance
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