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jeasiq-2276
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 08 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Effect of Toxoplasmosis Infection on Liver and Kidney Functions among Pregnant Women in Abo-Gharib District- Iraq
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The effect of toxoplasmosis infection on liver and kidney functions among pregnant women in Abo-Gharib District- Iraq was studied. Forty women that had positive test for toxoplasmosis by ELISA test were participated in this study. Also control group of apparently healthy women was selected (ten total women). This group had negative test for toxoplasmosis (ELISA test). The venous blood was collected from each patient and control individual to obtain serum. Liver function was evaluated by the estimation of serum aspartate aminotransferase (AST/GOT), serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT/ GPT) and serum alkaline Phosphatase (ALP) activities. Kidney function was evaluated by the estimation of serum creatinine and urea concentrations by the enz

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 21 2020
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
AN EVALUATION OF INVASIVE PEST, RED PALM WEEVIL RHYNCHOPHORUS FERRUGINEUS (OLIVIER, 1790) (COLEOPTERA, CURCULIONIDAE) POPULATION IN IRAQ
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The Red Palm Weevil (RPW), Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier, 1790) is a devastating invasive pest of palm trees, invading the Iraqi date palm tree in 2015 for the first time in Safwan county, Basrah province. The Red Palm weevil has been categorized as a quarantine pest of date palm trees worldwide. In this study, a five years monitoring program has been achieved by scouting the invasive pest RPW population in Safwan county by using visual sampling and Pheromone baited traps.
The results indicated that the number of infested palms, increased from 12 trees in 2015 to 111 in 16 orchards in 2016. The number of the infested palms was minimized to 3 trees in the county in 2019 due to the management protocol of the Ministry of Agriculture

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Publication Date
Mon May 28 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Pollution Assessment of Surface and Drainage Water by Heavy Elements in Al Ahrar District, Wasit Governorate, Iraq
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     The study area lies in Wasit governorate south west Kut city, where Al Ahdeb oil field is located to the south of Al Ahrar district. The present study deals with assessment of heavy metals pollution in water by collecting eleven water samples (five samples from drainage and six samples from surface water) in 5th of December 2016. The water samples analysis of heavy elements in the study area shown that water is polluted with high concentration of (Pb, Cd) elements, while the concentration of (Cu, Fe, Zn) in water samples are within the permissible limits of both World Health Organization, and Iraqi standards and there are no hazard effects from these elements. The study detected some diseases that inju

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 28 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Suspended Sediment Concentration and Stream Discharge Relationship During Storm Events in Tributaries of Smaquli Stream, Erbil, Iraq
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The primary objective of this study is to monitor and collect data from the main
tributaries of Smaquli stream during rainfall storm events, which can be used to
establish relationship between suspended sediment concentration and discharge. The
Smaquli catchment is divided into two sub-catchments namely Sarwchawa and
Krosh with areas of 80.64 and 34.82 km2 respectively. Jali dam is built at watershed
outlet. Rainfall, stream discharge, and suspended sediment concentration are
monitored during ten rainfall storms in the water years (2012-2013) and (2013-
2014). Analysis of the data from the two sampling sites, shows two different
responses of suspended sediment concentrations. The Krosh sub-catchment reacts
rapi

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 07 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Seasonal Study for Habitat of Myriophyllum spicatum L. in Al-Burgga Marsh, Hor Al-Hammar, Southern Iraq
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Myriophyllum spicatum distribution in Al-Burgga marsh, Hor Al-Hammar was described in relation to some of the physical-chemical properties for its habitat (water depth, light penetration, water temperature, water salinity, pH, dissolved oxygen, Ca+2, Mg+2, reactive NO2=, reactive NO3-1, and reactive PO4-3) during 2011, seasonally. CANOCO ordination program (CCA) was used to analyse the data. Its vegetation cover percentage was with its peak at summer, its value was 90 %, while the lowest value was 20 % in winter. Statistically, Positive relationships for WT, sal., Ca+2, Mg+2, reactive NO2=, reactive NO3-1, and reactive PO4-3 with the vegetation cover percentage were observed. While, negative relationships for WD, pH, and DO with the ve

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 13 2022
Journal Name
Plant Archives
ISOLATION AND SERODIGNOSTIC OF VIBRIO CHOLERAE FROM PATIENTS SUFFERED FROM WATERY DIARRHEA IN SUWAYRAH, WASIT GOVERNORATE, IRAQ
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Background: Cholera has been recognized as a killer disease since earliest time. The disease is caused by infection of the small intestine by Vibrio cholerae O1 and O1391 which is characterized by severe dehydrating diarrheal condition and is one disease in modern times that is epidemic, endemic and pandemic in nature. Objective: This study was carried out to detect and isolate V. cholerae from patients suffered from watery diarrhea, which may cause severe complications such as dehydration, shock followed by death. Materials and methods: stool specimens were collected from 308 patients with watery diarrhea. These samples were tested with many criteria such as TCBS agar, gram stain, biochemical tests and VITEK-2 system to improve the isolati

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2022
Journal Name
Eurasian Journalof History, Geography And Economics
Effect of Oil Prices Fluctuations on Agricultural Gross Domestic Product in Iraq: Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach
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The research dealt with the analysis of the relations between the GDP of the agricultural sector in Iraq, oil prices, the exchange rate and the GDP both on the short term and long term. The research adopted data analysis for the period from 1980-2019 using the ARDL model. the results indicate the existence of long-term relationships between oil prices and the prices of each agricultural commodity at a significance level of 5%. Also, oil prices have a negative consequence on agricultural production in Iraq, and the Iraqi economy is a rentier economy that depends mainly on oil as a source of income and budget financing.

Publication Date
Thu Aug 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
EVALUTION OF OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH AND SAFETY SYSTEM ACCORDING TO ISO 45001 : 2018 Applied Research IN BAGHDAD COMPANY FOR SOFT DRINKS
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Represent a topic occupational safety and health management is one of the priorities of the loading organization in the business environment ,and one of the requirement for the success and its impact on the productivity of workers and their performance in an appropriate working environment .The international responses to the problems that accompany the technological and industrial development of the business environment are the issuance of ISO 45001:2018 aimed at providing an appropriate framework for controlling risks , reducing injuries and work accidents and improving work performance ,after realizing the environmental relationship between safe and sound work with competition .The search’s issue is represented with the exist

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 20 2002
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
Domestic Animals in English and Iraqi Rural Proverbs: A Pragmastylistic Study
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Proverbs gain their importance not only from the fact that they represent a cultural record of the people of every nation, but they reveal the way they use language and how they exploit their environments as a good source of inspiration to enrich that language.  Domestic animals, as part of every environment, play a major role in composing proverbs in every nation.

       This study is an attempt to pragmastylistically analyse some selected English and Iraqi rural proverbs using domestic animals in their texts. It limits itself to investigate certain stylistic and pragmatic devices such as: the type of sentences, their lengths, their content and grammatical words, the part of speech used, metaph

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The role of accounting responsibility in the success of the reform of financial and administrative / applied research in high School
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The reform process is a dynamic process going on, especially the administrative and financial reform, which contributes to the work and directing operations towards success and continuous development, which requires determining the validity and the responsibility and the rights and duties of all officials in the school settings (within the formations educational institutions) for the purpose of reducing the administrative and financial corruption, and then ensure management efficient and effective way by taking advantage of the physical, financial and human resources available to achieve the greatest benefit at the lowest cost to the fact that the follow-up performance on an ongoing basis in accordance with the specific of powers

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