Simulation experiments are a means of solving in many fields, and it is the process of designing a model of the real system in order to follow it and identify its behavior through certain models and formulas written according to a repeating software style with a number of iterations. The aim of this study is to build a model that deals with the behavior suffering from the state of (heteroskedasticity) by studying the models (APGARCH & NAGARCH) using (Gaussian) and (Non-Gaussian) distributions for different sample sizes (500,1000,1500,2000) through the stage of time series analysis (identification , estimation, diagnostic checking and prediction). The data was generated using the estimations of the parameters resulting from the application of these models to the return series for the exchange rates of Iraqi dinar against US dollar (IQ/USD) for the period from (21/7/2011) until (21/07/2021) and then using these estimations in the process of generating data. The identifications were made using the (Ljung-Box and ARCH tests) with (1000 replicates) and the result showed the presence of states (autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity) and this states increased with increasing the sample size and the best result of NAGARCH with Normal distribution and the best result of APGARCH with General error distribution. The Maximum Likelihood Estimation method used to estimate the parameters of the models and the best result with largest sample size (2000) , in the diagnostic checking phase the result showed the ability of the models (NAGARCH & APGARCH) to process the states of (autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity) and the best result with (APGARCH) model when the error distributed (General error distribution)
The monthly time series of the Total Suspended Solids (TSS) concentrations in Euphrates River at Nasria was analyzed as a time series. The data used for the analysis was the monthly series during (1977-2000).
The series was tested for nonhomogenity and found to be nonhomogeneous. A significant positive jump was observed after 1988. This nonhomogenity was removed using a method suggested by Yevichevich (7). The homogeneous series was then normalized using Box and Cox (2) transformation. The periodic component of the series was fitted using harmonic analyses, and removed from the series to obtain the dependent stochastic component. This component was then modeled using first order autoregressive model (Markovian chain). The above a
... Show MoreThe aim of this research is to identify the availability of visual thinking skills in the chemistry textbook scheduled for the third intermediate grade for the academic year (2020-2021) in the Republic of Iraq. The study sample consisted of all (85) images contained in the chemistry course for the third intermediate grade, which are (85) form using the curriculum. Analytical descriptive A list of visual thinking skills was prepared, and the unit of form was adopted as a unit of analysis and repetition as a unit of counting, and frequencies and percentages were used for statistical treatment, and validity and reliability were calculated. And using the Holste equation. The following results were reached: The skill
... Show MoreReseach target the most important topic, is Activity and ProfitabilityIndictors Analysis for
Nationality and Iraqi Insurance Company, In order to stand on them ability to cover its risks
and explore the efficiency asset and its avialible resources using to determine them abilities to
profit generation from its insurance activity. The analysis was focus to examine their profit
and activity power, and test the significant differences aming them performance. Test 2
hypothese that is related and result it sign that the 2 company no has significant differences at
profitability and activity level. The research depend on coneclusion, recommended two
company to work at efficiency with cost element of insurance activity in or
Recently, women's rape has been a pervasive problem in the Iraqi society. Thus, it has become necessary to consider the role of language and its influence on the common beliefs and opinions about rape in the Iraqi society. Thus, taking into consideration the critical role of language and its impact on the perception of human reality and the social development based on people's beliefs and principles of life has become highly indispensable. Therefore. The aim of this article is to address this problem critically from legislation and social norms in NGOs' reports (2015; 2019) with reference to some provisions from the Iraqi Panel Code (1969; 2010). Therefore, the researchers examine the discursive strategies and ideological viewpoints in t
... Show MoreThe hydroconversion of Iraqi light straight run naphtha was studied on zeolite catalyst. 0.3wt.%Pt/HMOR catalyst was prepared locally and used in the present work. The hydroconversion performed on a continuous fixed-bed laboratory reaction unit. Experiments were performed in the temperature range of 200 to 350°C, pressure range of 3 to 15 bars, LHSV range of 0.5-2.5h-1, and the hydrogen to naphtha ratio of 300.
The results show that the hydroconversion of Iraqi light straight naphtha increases with increase in reaction temperature and decreases with increase in LHSV.
High octane number isomers were formed at low temperature of 240°C. The selectivity of hydroisomerization improved by increasing reaction pressu
... Show MoreThis paper proposed a new method to study functional non-parametric regression data analysis with conditional expectation in the case that the covariates are functional and the Principal Component Analysis was utilized to de-correlate the multivariate response variables. It utilized the formula of the Nadaraya Watson estimator (K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN)) for prediction with different types of the semi-metrics, (which are based on Second Derivative and Functional Principal Component Analysis (FPCA)) for measureing the closeness between curves. Root Mean Square Errors is used for the implementation of this model which is then compared to the independent response method. R program is used for analysing data. Then, when the cov
... Show MoreThe present study involves experimental analysis of the modified Closed Wet Cooling Tower (CWCT) based on first and second law of thermodynamics, to gain a deeper knowledge in this important field of engineering in Iraq. For this purpose, a prototype of CWCT optimized by added packing under a heat exchanger was designed, manufactured and tested for cooling capacity of 9 kW. Experiments are conducted to explore the effects of various operational and conformational parameters on the towers thermal performance. In the test section, spray water temperature and both dry bulb temperature and relative humidity of air measured at intermediate points of the heat exchanger and packing. Exergy of water and air were calculated by applying the exergy
... Show MoreThe Purpose of this research is a comparison between two types of multivariate GARCH models BEKK and DVECH to forecast using financial time series which are the series of daily Iraqi dinar exchange rate with dollar, the global daily of Oil price with dollar and the global daily of gold price with dollar for the period from 01/01/2014 till 01/01/2016.The estimation, testing and forecasting process has been computed through the program RATS. Three time series have been transferred to the three asset returns to get the Stationarity, some tests were conducted including Ljung- Box, Multivariate Q and Multivariate ARCH to Returns Series and Residuals Series for both models with comparison between the estimation and for
... Show MoreAbstract
This study highlights the importance of Iraq in the analysis of foreign trade and economic growth for the period (1980 - 2013) is an attempt to determine the equilibrium relationship long term and short term between these two variables were used ARDL model to explain the economic relationship between the two variables.
To achieve the objectives of the research has been the standard model estimate after testing the stability of exports X data series, and imports M, and GDP current prices, and exchange rate EXR, and verify the existence of a joint integration relationship between these variables.
In order to achieve the objectives of the research it
... Show MoreThe two most popular models inwell-known count regression models are Poisson and negative binomial regression models. Poisson regression is a generalized linear model form of regression analysis used to model count data and contingency tables. Poisson regression assumes the response variable Y has a Poisson distribution, and assumes the logarithm of its expected value can be modeled by a linear combination of unknown parameters. Negative binomial regression is similar to regular multiple regression except that the dependent (Y) variables an observed count that follows the negative binomial distribution. This research studies some factors affecting divorce using Poisson and negative binomial regression models. The factors are unemplo
... Show More