Simulation experiments are a means of solving in many fields, and it is the process of designing a model of the real system in order to follow it and identify its behavior through certain models and formulas written according to a repeating software style with a number of iterations. The aim of this study is to build a model that deals with the behavior suffering from the state of (heteroskedasticity) by studying the models (APGARCH & NAGARCH) using (Gaussian) and (Non-Gaussian) distributions for different sample sizes (500,1000,1500,2000) through the stage of time series analysis (identification , estimation, diagnostic checking and prediction). The data was generated using the estimations of the parameters resulting from the application of these models to the return series for the exchange rates of Iraqi dinar against US dollar (IQ/USD) for the period from (21/7/2011) until (21/07/2021) and then using these estimations in the process of generating data. The identifications were made using the (Ljung-Box and ARCH tests) with (1000 replicates) and the result showed the presence of states (autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity) and this states increased with increasing the sample size and the best result of NAGARCH with Normal distribution and the best result of APGARCH with General error distribution. The Maximum Likelihood Estimation method used to estimate the parameters of the models and the best result with largest sample size (2000) , in the diagnostic checking phase the result showed the ability of the models (NAGARCH & APGARCH) to process the states of (autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity) and the best result with (APGARCH) model when the error distributed (General error distribution)
The researchers have a special interest in studying Markov chains as one of the probability samples which has many applications in different fields. This study comes to deal with the changes issue that happen on budget expenditures by using statistical methods, and Markov chains is the best expression about that as they are regarded reliable samples in the prediction process. A transitional matrix is built for three expenditure cases (increase ,decrease ,stability) for one of budget expenditure items (base salary) for three directorates (Baghdad ,Nineveh , Diyala) of one of the ministries. Results are analyzed by applying Maximum likelihood estimation and Ordinary least squares methods resulting
... Show MoreThis research deals with the study of the relationship between the success factors as the independent variable and product strategies as the dependent variable , has reacted to these variables to form the frame , which is the research which centered research problem about the extent to which industrial companies the vision and knowledge of Muslim women survive and develop in the business market , which can be expressed about the extent of awareness of corporate success factors and the use of product strategies and what the relationship between the factors and strategies , while expressing the importance of research to make the focus on the product occupies a paramount importance in the industrial sector companies in relation to t
... Show MoreIt is well known that drilling fluid is a key parameter for optimizing drilling operations, cleaning the hole, and managing the rig hydraulics and margins of surge and swab pressures. Although the experimental works represent valid and reliable results, they are expensive and time consuming. In contrast, continuous and regular determination of the rheological fluid properties can perform its essential functions during good construction. The aim of this study is to develop empirical models to estimate the drilling mud rheological properties of water-based fluids with less need for lab measurements. This study provides two predictive techniques, multiple regression analysis and artificial neural networks, to determine the rheological
... Show MoreAn experiment was carried out in the vegetables field of Horticulture Department / College of Agriculture / Baghdad University , for the three seasons : spring and Autumn of 2005 , and spring of 2007 , to study the type of gene action in some traits of vegetative , flowery growth , yield and its components in summer squash crosses (4 x 3 = cross 1 , 3 x 7 = cross 2 , 3 x 4 = cross 3 , 3 x 5 = cross 4 , 5 x 1= cross 5 , 5 x 2 = cross 6). The study followed generation mean analysis method which included to each cross (P1 , P2 , F1 , F2 , Bc1P1 , Bc1P2) , and those populations obtained by hybridization during the first and second seasons. Experimental comparison was performed in the second (Two crosses only) and third seasons , (four crosses)
... Show MoreManipulation is a discursive concept which plays a key role in political discourse by which politicians can impose some impact on their recipients through using linguistic features, most prominent of which are personal pronouns (Van Dijk, 1995). The aim of this study is to investigate how politicians utilize the personal pronouns, namely; We and I and their possessive forms as a tool of manipulating the audience's mind based on Van Dijk's "ideological square" which shows positive-self representation and negative-other representation (Van Dijk,1998:p.69). To this end, American President Donald Trump's 2020 State of the Union speech was chosen to be the data of analysis. Only (8)
... Show MoreThe experimental proton resonance data for the reaction P+48Ti have been used to calculate and evaluate the level density by employed the Gaussian Orthogonal Ensemble, GOE version of RMT, Constant Temperature, CT and Back Shifted Fermi Gas, BSFG models at certain spin-parity and at different proton energies. The results of GOE model are found in agreement with other, while the level density calculated using the BSFG Model showed less values with spin dependence more than parity, due the limitation in the parameters (level density parameter, a, Energy shift parameter, E1and spin cut off parameter, σc). Also, in the CT Model the level density results depend mainly on two parameters (T and ground state back shift energy, E0), which are app
... Show MoreThis paper delves into some significant performance measures (PMs) of a bulk arrival queueing system with constant batch size b, according to arrival rates and service rates being fuzzy parameters. The bulk arrival queuing system deals with observation arrival into the queuing system as a constant group size before allowing individual customers entering to the service. This leads to obtaining a new tool with the aid of generating function methods. The corresponding traditional bulk queueing system model is more convenient under an uncertain environment. The α-cut approach is applied with the conventional Zadeh's extension principle (ZEP) to transform the triangular membership functions (Mem. Fs) fuzzy queues into a family of conventional b
... Show MoreEfficient management of treated sewage effluents protects the environment and reuse of municipal, industrial, agricultural and recreational as compensation for water shortages as a second source of water. This study was conducted to investigate the overall performance and evaluate the effluent quality from Al- Rustamiya sewage treatment plant (STP), Baghdad, Iraq by determining the effluent quality index (EQI). This assessment included daily records of major influent and effluent sewage parameters that were obtained from the municipal sewage plant laboratory recorded from January 2011 to December 2018. The result showed that the treated sewage effluent quality from STP was within the Iraqi quality standards (IQS) for disposal and t
... Show MoreThe main aim of this paper is to study how the different estimators of the two unknown parameters (shape and scale parameter) of a generalized exponential distribution behave for different sample sizes and for different parameter values. In particular,
. Maximum Likelihood, Percentile and Ordinary Least Square estimators had been implemented for different sample sizes (small, medium, and large) and assumed several contrasts initial values for the two parameters. Two indicators of performance Mean Square Error and Mean Percentile Error were used and the comparisons were carried out between different methods of estimation by using monte carlo simulation techniq
... Show MoreA dynamic analysis method has been developed to investigate and characterize embedded delamination on the dynamic response of composite laminated structures. A nonlinear finite element model for geometrically large amplitude free vibration intact plate and delamination plate analysis is presented using higher order shear deformation theory where the nonlinearity was introduced in the Green-Lagrange sense. The governing equation of the vibrated plate were derived using the Variational approach. The effect of different orthotropicity ratio, boundary condition and delamination size on the non-dimenational fundamental frequency and frequency ratios of plate for different stacking sequences are studied. Finally th
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