Simulation experiments are a means of solving in many fields, and it is the process of designing a model of the real system in order to follow it and identify its behavior through certain models and formulas written according to a repeating software style with a number of iterations. The aim of this study is to build a model that deals with the behavior suffering from the state of (heteroskedasticity) by studying the models (APGARCH & NAGARCH) using (Gaussian) and (Non-Gaussian) distributions for different sample sizes (500,1000,1500,2000) through the stage of time series analysis (identification , estimation, diagnostic checking and prediction). The data was generated using the estimations of the parameters resulting from the application of these models to the return series for the exchange rates of Iraqi dinar against US dollar (IQ/USD) for the period from (21/7/2011) until (21/07/2021) and then using these estimations in the process of generating data. The identifications were made using the (Ljung-Box and ARCH tests) with (1000 replicates) and the result showed the presence of states (autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity) and this states increased with increasing the sample size and the best result of NAGARCH with Normal distribution and the best result of APGARCH with General error distribution. The Maximum Likelihood Estimation method used to estimate the parameters of the models and the best result with largest sample size (2000) , in the diagnostic checking phase the result showed the ability of the models (NAGARCH & APGARCH) to process the states of (autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity) and the best result with (APGARCH) model when the error distributed (General error distribution)
<span>Dust is a common cause of health risks and also a cause of climate change, one of the most threatening problems to humans. In the recent decade, climate change in Iraq, typified by increased droughts and deserts, has generated numerous environmental issues. This study forecasts dust in five central Iraqi districts using machine learning and five regression algorithm supervised learning system framework. It was assessed using an Iraqi meteorological organization and seismology (IMOS) dataset. Simulation results show that the gradient boosting regressor (GBR) has a mean square error of 8.345 and a total accuracy ratio of 91.65%. Moreover, the results show that the decision tree (DT), where the mean square error is 8.965, c
... Show MoreThe study of petroleum systems by using the PetroMoD 1D software is one of the most prominent ways to reduce risks in the exploration of oil and gas by ensuring the existence of hydrocarbons before drilling.
The petroleum system model was designed for Dima-1 well by inserting several parameters into the software, which included the stratigraphic succession of the formations penetrating the well, the depths of the upper parts of these formations, and the thickness of each formation. In addition, other related parameters were investigated, such as lithology, geological age, periods of sedimentation, periods of erosion or non-deposition, nature of units (source or reservoir rocks), total organic carbon (TOC)
... Show MoreThis paper develops a nonlinear transient three-dimensional heat transfer finite element model and a rate independent three-dimensional deformation model, developed for the CO2 laser welding simulations in Al-6061-T6 alloy. Simulations are performed using an indirect coupled thermal-structural method for the process of welding. Temperature-dependent thermal properties of Al-6061-T6, effect of latent heat of fusion, and the convective and radiative boundary conditions are included in the model. The heat input to the model is assumed to be a Gaussian heat source. The finite element code ANSYS12, along with a few FORTRAN subroutines, are employed to obtain the numerical results. The benefit of the proposed methodology is that it
... Show MoreThere is a variety of artificial foot designs variable for use with prosthetic legs . Most of the design can be divided into two classes, articulated and non-articulated feet. one common non-articulated foot is the SACH . The solid ankle cushion heel foot referred to as the SACH foot has a rigid keel .
One key or the key factor in designing a new prosthesis is in the analysis of a patients response .
This view is the most important because if the foot does not provide functional , practical or cosmetically acceptable characteristics the patient will not feel comfortable with the prosthesis , therefore design and manufacturing a new foot is essential, this foot made from polyethylene, its different shape and characte
... Show MoreIn this article our goal is mixing ARMA models with EGARCH models and composing a mixed model ARMA(R,M)-EGARCH(Q,P) with two steps, the first step includes modeling the data series by using EGARCH model alone interspersed with steps of detecting the heteroscedasticity effect and estimating the model's parameters and check the adequacy of the model. Also we are predicting the conditional variance and verifying it's convergence to the unconditional variance value. The second step includes mixing ARMA with EGARCH and using the mixed (composite) model in modeling time series data and predict future values then asses the prediction ability of the proposed model by using prediction error criterions.
The research objective are analyze financial leverage advantage through analyze and discuss financial leverage cost, and achieve tax advantage. study include two firms ,oil firm and industrial companies firm with limited liability.The inductive method is used for the applied part in analyzing the financial data of the companies considered in 2011-2015.The result of the study shows that the financial leverage achieve present value of the costs is Negative . The study concluded that the most important conclusions of the tax advantage of leverage is higher costs as well as achieving a low tax shield ,This study found out the results that interest payments related to pre-tax all of the loan amount and the percentage of the interest rate on b
... Show MoreThe Purpose of this study are analyze financial lease advantage through analyze and discuss financial lease cost, and achieve tax advantage to reach study objective. study include two firms ,oil firm and construction firm with limited liability. The inductive method is used for the applied part in analyzing the financial data of the companies considered in 2011-2015.The result of the study shows that the financial lease achieve present value of the costs is positive. This study found out the results that verify the hypothesis: The tax advantage of financial Leasing is characterized by decreasing cost and achieving higher tax shield. The study also found the most important recommendations of awareness of the benefits arising f
... Show MoreThere are different types of corruptions such as administrative, political, economic and financial corruption. The corruption forms also varied such as bribery, nepotism and extortion. All types and forms of corruption play significant role in the all economic variables generally and on investments in particular, and the corruption used to be an intermediate means in reducing the rate of economic growth. The corruption contributes in reducing the domestic investments via pay bribery by investors to officials’ persons for supplemental contracts and tenders which finally leads to reduction in the investment efficiency. The corruption also contributes in rise of operational costs for the investment projects. In additio
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Robotics manipulators with structural flexibility provide an attractive alternative to rigid robotics manipulators for many of the new and evolving applications in robotics. In certain applications their use is unavoidable. The increased complexity in modeling and control of such manipulators is offset by desirable performance enhancements in some respects. In this paperthe single- link flexible robotics manipulator was designed and implemented from Perspex and designed with 0.5 m length , 0.02 m width and with 0.004 m thickness with mass located at the tip. There are four subsystems; motion, control, accelerometer and gyro and a host computer subsystem. The work principle of single-link robotics manipul
... Show MoreElectrical Discharge Machining (EDM) is a non-traditional cutting technique for metals removing which is relied upon the basic fact that negligible tool force is produced during the machining process. Also, electrical discharge machining is used in manufacturing very hard materials that are electrically conductive. Regarding the electrical discharge machining procedure, the most significant factor of the cutting parameter is the surface roughness (Ra). Conventional try and error method is time consuming as well as high cost. The purpose of the present research is to develop a mathematical model using response graph modeling (RGM). The impact of various parameters such as (current, pulsation on time and pulsation off time) are studied on
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