Simulation experiments are a means of solving in many fields, and it is the process of designing a model of the real system in order to follow it and identify its behavior through certain models and formulas written according to a repeating software style with a number of iterations. The aim of this study is to build a model that deals with the behavior suffering from the state of (heteroskedasticity) by studying the models (APGARCH & NAGARCH) using (Gaussian) and (Non-Gaussian) distributions for different sample sizes (500,1000,1500,2000) through the stage of time series analysis (identification , estimation, diagnostic checking and prediction). The data was generated using the estimations of the parameters resulting from the application of these models to the return series for the exchange rates of Iraqi dinar against US dollar (IQ/USD) for the period from (21/7/2011) until (21/07/2021) and then using these estimations in the process of generating data. The identifications were made using the (Ljung-Box and ARCH tests) with (1000 replicates) and the result showed the presence of states (autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity) and this states increased with increasing the sample size and the best result of NAGARCH with Normal distribution and the best result of APGARCH with General error distribution. The Maximum Likelihood Estimation method used to estimate the parameters of the models and the best result with largest sample size (2000) , in the diagnostic checking phase the result showed the ability of the models (NAGARCH & APGARCH) to process the states of (autocorrelation and heteroskedasticity) and the best result with (APGARCH) model when the error distributed (General error distribution)
<span>Dust is a common cause of health risks and also a cause of climate change, one of the most threatening problems to humans. In the recent decade, climate change in Iraq, typified by increased droughts and deserts, has generated numerous environmental issues. This study forecasts dust in five central Iraqi districts using machine learning and five regression algorithm supervised learning system framework. It was assessed using an Iraqi meteorological organization and seismology (IMOS) dataset. Simulation results show that the gradient boosting regressor (GBR) has a mean square error of 8.345 and a total accuracy ratio of 91.65%. Moreover, the results show that the decision tree (DT), where the mean square error is 8.965, c
... Show MoreThe Artificial Neural Network methodology is a very important & new subjects that build's the models for Analyzing, Data Evaluation, Forecasting & Controlling without depending on an old model or classic statistic method that describe the behavior of statistic phenomenon, the methodology works by simulating the data to reach a robust optimum model that represent the statistic phenomenon & we can use the model in any time & states, we used the Box-Jenkins (ARMAX) approach for comparing, in this paper depends on the received power to build a robust model for forecasting, analyzing & controlling in the sod power, the received power come from
... Show MorePolitical speeches are represented in different shapes as political forum, events or as inaugural speech. This research critically analyzes the inaugural Speech of the President Donald Trump which was delivered on 20th ,January, 2017 from the site<www.cnn.com> retrieved on 10th ,May,2017. The objectives of the study are: First: classifying and discussing well known micro structures (linguistic feature) of the speech, and second: classifying the macro structures i.e. the delivered political inaugural speech in which he includes social structures. To reach to the objectives of the study, the researcher will adopt Norman Fairclough’s three dimensional Analytical Model(
... Show MoreThis study aims to discuss the projects of poultry in Wasit province in 2013 and geographical distribution according to the type and contrast on the level of administrative units representing Districts and The reasons for this discrepancy, as well as knowledge of the factors affecting the distribution by the analysis and reasoning and description This study divided to the four themes, The first of the statement of nutritional importance and economic Poultry focused on the importance of various poultry products, The second one shows the relative position of the province of Wasit between the provinces of Iraq in poultry and production of eggs and meat farming projects, and then followed by the third one (theme) as it ensures the geographic
... Show MoreThis paper develops a nonlinear transient three-dimensional heat transfer finite element model and a rate independent three-dimensional deformation model, developed for the CO2 laser welding simulations in Al-6061-T6 alloy. Simulations are performed using an indirect coupled thermal-structural method for the process of welding. Temperature-dependent thermal properties of Al-6061-T6, effect of latent heat of fusion, and the convective and radiative boundary conditions are included in the model. The heat input to the model is assumed to be a Gaussian heat source. The finite element code ANSYS12, along with a few FORTRAN subroutines, are employed to obtain the numerical results. The benefit of the proposed methodology is that it
... Show MoreThere is a variety of artificial foot designs variable for use with prosthetic legs . Most of the design can be divided into two classes, articulated and non-articulated feet. one common non-articulated foot is the SACH . The solid ankle cushion heel foot referred to as the SACH foot has a rigid keel .
One key or the key factor in designing a new prosthesis is in the analysis of a patients response .
This view is the most important because if the foot does not provide functional , practical or cosmetically acceptable characteristics the patient will not feel comfortable with the prosthesis , therefore design and manufacturing a new foot is essential, this foot made from polyethylene, its different shape and characte
... Show MoreThe Purpose of this study are analyze financial lease advantage through analyze and discuss financial lease cost, and achieve tax advantage to reach study objective. study include two firms ,oil firm and construction firm with limited liability. The inductive method is used for the applied part in analyzing the financial data of the companies considered in 2011-2015.The result of the study shows that the financial lease achieve present value of the costs is positive. This study found out the results that verify the hypothesis: The tax advantage of financial Leasing is characterized by decreasing cost and achieving higher tax shield. The study also found the most important recommendations of awareness of the benefits arising f
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Robotics manipulators with structural flexibility provide an attractive alternative to rigid robotics manipulators for many of the new and evolving applications in robotics. In certain applications their use is unavoidable. The increased complexity in modeling and control of such manipulators is offset by desirable performance enhancements in some respects. In this paperthe single- link flexible robotics manipulator was designed and implemented from Perspex and designed with 0.5 m length , 0.02 m width and with 0.004 m thickness with mass located at the tip. There are four subsystems; motion, control, accelerometer and gyro and a host computer subsystem. The work principle of single-link robotics manipul
... Show MoreThere are different types of corruptions such as administrative, political, economic and financial corruption. The corruption forms also varied such as bribery, nepotism and extortion. All types and forms of corruption play significant role in the all economic variables generally and on investments in particular, and the corruption used to be an intermediate means in reducing the rate of economic growth. The corruption contributes in reducing the domestic investments via pay bribery by investors to officials’ persons for supplemental contracts and tenders which finally leads to reduction in the investment efficiency. The corruption also contributes in rise of operational costs for the investment projects. In additio
... Show MoreThe research objective are analyze financial leverage advantage through analyze and discuss financial leverage cost, and achieve tax advantage. study include two firms ,oil firm and industrial companies firm with limited liability.The inductive method is used for the applied part in analyzing the financial data of the companies considered in 2011-2015.The result of the study shows that the financial leverage achieve present value of the costs is Negative . The study concluded that the most important conclusions of the tax advantage of leverage is higher costs as well as achieving a low tax shield ,This study found out the results that interest payments related to pre-tax all of the loan amount and the percentage of the interest rate on b
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