Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
The study hypothesize that the majority of Arab countries show a poor agricultural economic efficiency which resulted in a weak productive capacity of wheat in the face of the demand, which in turn led to the fluctuation of the rate of self-sufficiency and thus increase the size of the food gap. The study aims at estimating and analyzing the food security indicators for their importance in shaping the Arabic agricultural policy, which aims to achieve food security through domestic production and reduce the import of food to less possible extent. Some of the most important results reached by the study were that the increase in the amount of consumption of wheat in the countries of t
... Show MoreAir pollution is considered one of the major environmental problems that contain many challenges and difficulties facing most countries of the world, including Iraq. The problem has emerged widely with the emergence of the industrial revolution in the world and the tremendous increase in the population and the increase in the number of transportation and its development in addition to excavation, maintenance and work Construction and weather fluctuations, such as dust and sandstorms, pollution resulting from oil refining, extraction, diversion and other processes that cause pollution, and the start of the world using methods that limit the volume of environmental pollution. The most prominent of these methods is the imposition of
... Show MoreMany economists believe that the development and promotion of small and medium-sized enterprises is one of the most important sources of economic and social development in countries in general and in developing countries in particular. This is considered to be an essential starting point for increasing production capacity and contributing to tackling poverty and unemployment. In view of the importance of these projects, most developing countries have concentrated their efforts on them. They have encouraged the establishment of small and medium industries, especially after they have proved their ability and efficiency in dealing with the major problems facing different economies.
The banking system plays an important role by finan
... Show MoreIn light of crises, the need for efficient and flexible public administrations to make quick and decisive decisions, also institutions capable of directing the internal elements and components of them and adapting them to the requirements of rapid change due to crises and disasters, which led to scarce resources becoming scarcer and economic, political and social problems becomes more prominent. For the majority of developing countries, including Iraq, the increasing need for the importance of moving towards enhancing the efficiency of the performance of public institutions while trying to predict their future, can only be achieved. Through solid mechanisms and principles of governance that enhance the ability of institutions and make them
... Show MoreThis study was designed for isolation and molecular identification of Nontuberculous Mycobacterium (NTM) from fish during the period between October and December 2017 from Karbla province, Iraq. This study included 200 fresh fish samples from four different species including Spondyliosoma cantharus, Liza abu, Carassius carassius and Cyprinuscarpio. Three samples of each fish were taken including gills, muscles and all internal organs. The samples were processed by decontamination, concentration of 4% sodium hydroxide, and 0.1 ml of sediment was streaking on Löwenstein Johnson (LJ) media; then the bacterial cultures were incubated at 28-30 °C for 3days up to 4 weeks and suspected colonies were stained with acid fast stain to confir
... Show MoreThe advertisement is important in maximizing the resources of journalistic institutions. It helps them to perform their duties and also establishes their independence. However, this type of communication has often overlapped with other types of communication, including media and publicity.
Those in charge of the press bear responsibility in this regard, as some of them harness the advertisement for personal purposes; or detrimental to media content. Many communication authorities have drawn attention to the danger of confusing the concepts and levels of the three activities and have moved towards establishing rules to reduce overlap between them.
The aim of this research is to try to disengage the concept of advertising,
... Show MoreAbstract Iraq has an important place in the regional and international balance, and the competition among countries has increased in rapprochement with Iraq, not only for its geography or its privileged location, but because it has many other components that make regional and international countries want to strengthen their relations with it (Regional and international powers). In addition to that, Iraq has become increasingly important for these international and regional powers after its victory over the terrorist organization (ISIS), which proved an important fact that Iraq represents the most important pillars in the international balance.
Decision-makers in each country work to define a list of internal and external interests, goals and threats to their countries according to the nature of their awareness of these interests, goals and threats.
Hence, Iraq is not an exception to this rule, and the process of evaluating its interests and the objectives of its foreign policy is subject to the pattern of awareness of decision-makers and the influencing forces in defining its basic interests, which often witness some kind of difference in defining them, evaluating their importance and determining the size of the threats they face. And among these interests and threats that have witnessed a difference in the assessment of their
... Show MoreActive worms have posed a major security threat to the Internet, and many research efforts have focused on them. This paper is interested in internet worm that spreads via TCP, which accounts for the majority of internet traffic. It presents an approach that use a hybrid solution between two detection algorithms: behavior base detection and signature base detection to have the features of each of them. The aim of this study is to have a good solution of detecting worm and stealthy worm with the feature of the speed. This proposal was designed in distributed collaborative scheme based on the small-world network model to effectively improve the system performance.