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jeasiq-2089
Predicting Social Security Fund compensation in Iraq using ARMAX Model
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Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Basement Kind Effects on Air Temperature of a Solar Chimney in Baghdad - Iraq Weather
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A solar updraft tower power plant (solar tower) is a solar thermal power plant that utilizes a combination of solar

air collector and central updraft tube to generate an induced convective flow which drives pressure staged turbines to generate electricity.

 

 This paper presents practical results of a prototype of a solar chimney with thermal mass, where the glass surface is replaced by transparence plastic cover. The study focused on chimney's basements kind effect on collected air temperatures. Three basements were used: concrete, black concrete and black pebbles basements. The study was conducted in Baghdad from August to November 2009.

The results show that the best chimney efficiency attaine

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Iraq after war and strategy of reconstruction : Analytical study in reality and future horizon
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Abstract (Iraq post – war reconstruction strategy: analytical study in fact and future prospects.) There search aims at identifying the causes of internal instability in Iraq from the political ,economic , social and security aspects , to diagnose the imbalance and to work towards finding real solutions to this . The study also aims at identifying the reconstruction proposals to completely eliminate the organizationof the terrorist advocate, as well as to know. theproblem of research lies in the ability of Iraqi political elites to achieve internal stability and to employ reconstruction proposals at all levels . The hypothesis of the research lies in the equation that the process of building stability (political – economic)and (socia

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 28 2022
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The impact of the US military variable in reality Security in the Arab Gulf region after 2003
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The military presence in the Gulf region after the British withdrawal from it in 1971 was one of the most important pillars of the American strategy to climb the ladder of global leadership, as the geostrategic features that the region enjoyed provided factors of controlling energy sources and global trade routes. The United States of America guarantees Western Europe and Japan the process of access to energy sources and the exclusion of its opponents from the region, especially the Soviet Union, and the growing American military presence in the Gulf after the invasion of Iraq in 2003. On the other hand, the region experiences many contradictions, some of which threaten its security, such as the exacerbation of disputes between its count

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2012
Journal Name
The Magazine Economics & Admistration
دراسة أنتاج وتسويق التمور في العراق باستعمال طريقة المربعات الصغرى واسلوب البرمجة الخطية
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تناولنا في بحثنا أحد اساليب البرمجة الخطية وهي الطريقة المبسطة لتقدير معلمات انموذج الانحدار الخطي عن طريق اختيار دالة الهدف التي تعمل على تقليل الحد الادنى لمجموع الاخطاء الناتجة من تقدير المعلمات بطريقة المربعات الصغرى الاعتيادية ( OLS) حيث سيتم في الطريقة المبسطة ( simplex) فرض قيود على نفس الاخطاء نفسها بهدف تصغيرها الى اقل ما يمكن للحصول على تقديرات افضل لمعلمات انموذج الانحدار الخطي . على اساس ان طريقة المرب

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 12 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Postgraduate Medical Journal
The Accuracy of Electrocardiographic Criteria for Predicting Left Ventricular Hypertrophy in adult Patients with Systemic Hypertension
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ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Left ventricular hypertrophy is a significant risk factor for cardiovascular complications such as ischemic heart disease, heart failure, sudden death, atrial fibrillation, and stroke. A proper non-expensive tool is required for detection of this pathology. Different electrocardiographic (ECG) criteria were investigated; however, the results were conflicting regarding the accuracy of these criteria. OBJECTIVE: To assess the accuracy of three electrocardiographic criteria in diagnosis of left ventricular hypertrophy in adult patients with hypertension using echocardiography as a reference test. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This is a hospital-based cross sectional observational study which included 340 adult patients with a his

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 05 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
New Correlation for Predicting Undersaturated Oil Compressibility for Mishrif Reservoir in the Southern Iraqi Oil Fields
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Reservoir fluids properties are very important in reservoir engineering computations such as material balance calculations, well testing analyses, reserve estimates, and numerical reservoir simulations. Isothermal oil compressibility is required in fluid flow problems, extension of fluid properties from values at the bubble point pressure to higher pressures of interest and in material balance calculations (Ramey, Spivey, and McCain). Isothermal oil compressibility is a measure of the fractional change in volume as pressure is changed at constant temperature (McCain). The most accurate method for determining the Isothermal oil compressibility is a laboratory PVT analysis; however, the evaluation of exploratory wells often require an esti

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Oral Medicine And Oral Surgery
Reliability of two difficulty indexes in predicting the surgical extraction difficulty of impacted mandibular third molars
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Introduction: The aim of this study was to compare the reliability and the agreement of the Pederson and Pernambuco difficulty indexes in predicting the surgical extraction difficulty of the impacted mandibular third molars. Materials and methods: A prospective observational cohort study was conducted on 83 patients who had undergone surgical removal of impacted mandibular third molar. The difficulty of extraction was determined preoperatively according to the total scores obtained from the Pederson and Pernambuco difficulty indexes, the operative difficulty was determined by the surgical technique and the duration of extraction. The accuracy of prediction of the surgical difficulty and

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Incidence of intestinal parasitic infections among random samples at Al- Aziziyah hospital in Wasit province/Iraq
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     The study is designed to identify intestinal parasitic infections examined at Al-Aziziyah Hospital in Wasit Governorate in Iraq. In this study, a total of (460) internal and external patients were monitored for intestinal parasitic infections. All stool samples were analyzed by the direct method (microscopic exam.) to discover the trophozoite stages and cyst stages for intestinal protozoan parasites. The most incidence parasites in different sex, area residence and different age groups. Out of (460) patient sample were infected with 217 at a percentage of (47.17%), 101(46.5%) were for males and 116 (53.5%) were for females. It was found that the numbers and percentages of a single (one

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
THE IMPACT OF CURRENCY AUCTION ON THE VARIABILITY OF THE EXCHANGE RATE IN IRAQ 2004-2015
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The transition states that Iraq economy lived it after 2003, and the change in tools used by monetary policy based on C.B.I law 56 in 2004, under the especially situation for the economy (structural imbalances and the weakness of banking & financial sector).

The monetary policy adopted the inflation targeting policy to mantain the monetary stability in the economy and considered it an incubator for future growth. It used the exchange rate as a nominal anchor to achieve the goal (because the rentier of economy, finance Shallowness & separation between real sector and finance sector, all this cause the normal channel to transfer the effect of monetary policy (interest rate) ineffective.

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Studying the Effect of Curcumin (Standard & Supplements) and Zinc on the Concentrations of Glucose, Insulin, HOMA-IR, and Anti-Mullerian Hormone in PCOS-Model Rats
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The goal of the current study was to investigate the effects of curcumin in both formulas (supplement and standard), zinc, and then use them together to show their effect on the levels of glucose, insulin, insulin resistance (IR), and anti-mullerian hormone (AMH) in the model of female rats with induced polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) using 1mg/kg/day of letrozole for 21 days followed by a treatment period of 14 days including different treatments of zinc 30 mg/kg, curcumin standard 200 mg/kg, curcumin supplement 200 mg/kg, (curcumin standard plus zinc), (curcumin Supplement plus zinc) and metformin as a standard treatment. After the treatment, all female rats were sacrificed, and blood samples were collected from the inferior vena cava

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