Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
Often phenomena suffer from disturbances in their data as well as the difficulty of formulation, especially with a lack of clarity in the response, or the large number of essential differences plaguing the experimental units that have been taking this data from them. Thus emerged the need to include an estimation method implicit rating of these experimental units using the method of discrimination or create blocks for each item of these experimental units in the hope of controlling their responses and make it more homogeneous. Because of the development in the field of computers and taking the principle of the integration of sciences it has been found that modern algorithms used in the field of Computer Science genetic algorithm or ant colo
... Show MoreThe great raise and development of residential buildings in modern cities worldwide as a result of urban extends leads to environmental and social problems, that make the designers looking for more complicated and innovative solutions. To encounter these, most advanced technologies in construction had been used resulting buildings had become higher, which was moved away from the land called residential housing. And with the development of these buildings, increase in the inhabitants inside; generate distant from nature, which increased the need for interactive outdoor recreational spaces open green in its high sections, was an alternative or complementary option to outer space at the ground level. Therefore, the research problem has emer
... Show MoreThe spread of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has resulted in chaos around the globe. The infected cases are still increasing, with many countries still showing a trend of growing daily cases. To forecast the trend of active cases, a mathematical model, namely the SIR model was used, to visualize the spread of COVID-19. For this article, the forecast of the spread of the virus in Malaysia has been made, assuming that all Malaysian will eventually be susceptible. With no vaccine and antiviral drug currently developed, the visualization of how the peak of infection (namely flattening the curve) can be reduced to minimize the effect of COVID-19 disease. For Malaysians, let’s ensure to follow the rules and obey the SOP to lower the
Abstract:
The issues related to foreign trade is a broad field for discussions and captures the interest of economists for their contribution to the process of economic development in the economies of the countries, especially developing ones. The imports of goods and services in foreign trade constitute an important part of the local by which the economy gets goods and services that the economy cannot produce because of the incompetent base of production. Further, the demand function of imports occupied a good deal of the attention of researchers in the field of international economics for which agricultural imports constitute an important part. The reason for the interest in the subject is due to its im
... Show MoreAbstract:
Since the railway transport sector is very important in many countries of the world, we have tried through this research to study the production function of this sector and to indicate the level of productivity under which it operates.
It was found through the estimation and analysis of the production function Kub - Duglas that the railway transport sector in Iraq suffers from a decline in the level of productivity, which was reflected in the deterioration of the level of services provided for the transport of passengers and goods. This led to the loss of the sector of importance in supporting the national economy and the reluctance of most passengers an
... Show MoreEconomic performance is one of the most important indicators of economic activity and with the performance of the economy progress varied sources of output and increase economic growth rates and per capita national income, and to recover the business environment and increase investment rates and rising effectiveness of the financial and monetary institutions and credit market. Which leads to increased employment rates and reducing unemployment rates and the elimination of many of the social problems and improve the average per capita income as well as improve the level of national income.
The input / output tables is a technique mathematical indicates economic performance
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This study aimed to choose top stocks through technical analysis tools specially the indicator called (ratio of William index), and test the ability of technical analysis tools in building a portfolio of shares efficient in comparison with the market portfolio. These one technical tools were used for building one portfolios in 21 companies on specific preview conditions and choose 10 companies for the period from (March 2015) to (June 2017). Applied results of the research showed that Portfolio yield for companies selected according to the ratio of William index indicator (0.0406) that
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Praise be to God, and may blessings and peace be upon the Messenger of God. As for:
The Noble Qur’an is the constitution of life, and a comprehensive educational approach that deals with individuals comprehensively, as it organizes worldly and eschatological life, and it is a curriculum concerned with organizing life starting with individuals and the family until the establishment of states, and from its comprehensiveness is reform, guidance and establishing boundaries. They have a disease in their hearts. They are exposed to this and are trying, by falsehood, to subjugate the Islamic world with man-made laws set by the West. Their aim is to distance people from
... Show MoreThe importance of this research is to clarify the nature and the relationship between the indicators of financial policy and banking stability in Iraq, as well as to find a composite index reflects the state of banking stability in Iraq in order to provide an appropriate means to help policymakers in making appropriate decisions before the occurrence of financial crises.
Hence, the problem of research is that the fiscal policy has implications for the macro economy and does not rule out its impact on banking stability. Moreover, the central bank does not possess a single indicator that reflects the stability of the banking system, rather than the scattered indicators that depend o
... Show MoreMedia theories and studies have provided many diligences on the concept of social media and the circle of influence, including the theory of social marketing which deals with how to promote ideas espoused by the elite in a society to become a recognized social value. The emergence of social networks provided a revolutionary breakthrough, taking the media to unprecedented horizons; and giving its users great opportunities to influence and move across borders without restrictions and censorship, except in a relatively limited manner.
So, the emergence of social media has created channels of live broadcasting from its audience in a method of development that changes the essence of the known communication theories; a
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