Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
In this paper all possible regressions procedure as well as stepwise regression procedure were applied to select the best regression equation that explain the effect of human capital represented by different levels of human cadres on the productivity of the processing industries sector in Iraq by employing the data of a time series consisting of 21 years period. The statistical program SPSS was used to perform the required calculations.
It is considered as one of the statistical methods used to describe and estimate the relationship between randomness (Y) and explanatory variables (X). The second is the homogeneity of the variance, in which the dependent variable is a binary response takes two values (One when a specific event occurred and zero when that event did not happen) such as (injured and uninjured, married and unmarried) and that a large number of explanatory variables led to the emergence of the problem of linear multiplicity that makes the estimates inaccurate, and the method of greatest possibility and the method of declination of the letter was used in estimating A double-response logistic regression model by adopting the Jackna
... Show More
It is considered as one of the statistical methods used to describe and estimate the relationship between randomness (Y) and explanatory variables (X). The second is the homogeneity of the variance, in which the dependent variable is a binary response takes two values (One when a specific event occurred and zero when that event did not happen) such as (injured and uninjured, married and unmarried) and that a large number of explanatory variables led to the emergence of the problem of linear multiplicity that makes the estimates inaccurate, and the method of greatest possibility and the method of declination of the letter was used in estimating A double-response logistic regression model by adopting the Jackna
... Show MoreHeart disease is a significant and impactful health condition that ranks as the leading cause of death in many countries. In order to aid physicians in diagnosing cardiovascular diseases, clinical datasets are available for reference. However, with the rise of big data and medical datasets, it has become increasingly challenging for medical practitioners to accurately predict heart disease due to the abundance of unrelated and redundant features that hinder computational complexity and accuracy. As such, this study aims to identify the most discriminative features within high-dimensional datasets while minimizing complexity and improving accuracy through an Extra Tree feature selection based technique. The work study assesses the efficac
... Show MoreThe science of interpretation is considered one of the most important sciences due to its primacy and high status. Because knowledge is honored with the honor of its owner and related to it, and the science of interpretation is related to the Book of God, and from this importance emerges the importance of writing on a subject (from the terms of social organization in the Holy Qur’an); Because it deals with a matter that is considered a necessity in a place, and I called the research (from the terms of social organization in the Holy Qur’an - an analytical study), and the reason for choosing this topic was to clarify those terms and link them to our contemporary reality in order for them to be beacons of guidance and guidance for thos
... Show MoreIncremental forming is a flexible sheet metal forming process which is performed by utilizing simple tools to locally deform a sheet of metal along a predefined tool path without using of dies. This work presents the single point incremental forming process for producing pyramid geometry and studies the effect of tool geometry, tool diameter, and spindle speed on the residual stresses. The residual stresses were measured by ORIONRKS 6000 test measuring instrument. This instrument was used with four angles of (0º,15º,30º, and 45º) and the average value of residual stresses was determined, the value of the residual stress in the original blanks was (10.626 MPa). The X-ray diffraction technology was used to measure the residual stresses
... Show MoreConcert place high school in the community Keep pace with societal change and what is going through Iraqi society from the wars and occupation and the sectarian and ethnic conflict and authoritarian policies and Dictator ship .
This is the circumstance of the most important historical stages that require .
Precision sons is Keep up with the progress and development and the advancement of the educational march .
The school is a social institution that organizes the members of society all walks of life and their habitats working on crafting members of the extraordinary alve of progress At the multiplicity of functions and tasks school pequires members qualified scientific and practical Becomes complementary members seek progress a
This research aims at forecasting the public budget of Iraq (surplus or deficit) for 2017 & 2018 through using two methods to forecast. First: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using IMF estimations average oil price per barrel adopted in the public federal budget amounted to USD 44 in 2017 & USD 46 in 2018; Second: forecast budget surplus or deficit by using MOO actual average oil price in global markets amounted to USD 66 in 2018 through applying Dynamic Model & Static Model. Then analyze the models to reach the best one. The research concluded that those estimations of dynamic forecasting model of budget surplus or deficit for 2017 & 2018 gives good reliable results for future periods when using the a
... Show MoreDemography or population studies or demography is the science that is based on the different characteristics of the population scientific study, and represent a population studies principled way to understand the population of society, in addition to verification of the population in a given area determine the reason for the increase or decrease this number from the previous statistical As these studies estimate future trends for the occurrence of demographic change in terms of birth, death and migration That the registration of deaths of paramount importance narrated that way can the demographic reality of the population analysis, and coverage of the health authorities' needs and enable government institutions of decision-making
... Show MoreOften phenomena suffer from disturbances in their data as well as the difficulty of formulation, especially with a lack of clarity in the response, or the large number of essential differences plaguing the experimental units that have been taking this data from them. Thus emerged the need to include an estimation method implicit rating of these experimental units using the method of discrimination or create blocks for each item of these experimental units in the hope of controlling their responses and make it more homogeneous. Because of the development in the field of computers and taking the principle of the integration of sciences it has been found that modern algorithms used in the field of Computer Science genetic algorithm or ant colo
... Show More