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jeasiq-2089
Predicting Social Security Fund compensation in Iraq using ARMAX Model
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Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2009
Journal Name
International Journal Of Applied Environmental Sciences
An expert System for Predicting the Effects of Noise Pollution on Grass Trimming Task Using Fuzzy Modeling
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Grass trimming operation is widely done in Malaysia for the purpose of maintaining highways. Large number of operators engaged in this work encounters high level of noise generated by back pack type grass trimmer used for this purpose. High level of noise exposure gives different kinds of ill effect on human operators. Exact nature of deteriorated work performance is not known. For predicting the work efficiency deterioration, fuzzy tool has been used in present research. It has been established that a fuzzy computing system will help in identification and analysis of fuzzy models fuzzy system offers a convenient way of representing the relationships between the inputs and outputs of a system in the form of IF-THEN rules. The paper presents

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 19 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Predicting Biochemical Oxygen Demand at the Inlet of Al-Rustumiya Wastewater Treatment Plant Using Different Mathematical Techniques
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Water quality planning relies on Biochemical Oxygen Demand BOD. BOD testing takes five days. The Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is increasingly used for water resource forecasting. This work designed a PSO technique for estimating everyday BOD at Al-Rustumiya wastewater treatment facility inlet. Al-Rustumiya wastewater treatment plant provided 702 plant-scale data sets during 2012-2022. The PSO model uses the daily data of the water quality parameters, including chemical oxygen demand (COD), chloride (Cl-), suspended solid (SS), total dissolved solids (TDS), and pH, to determine how each variable affects the daily incoming BOD. PSO and multiple linear regression (MLR) findings are compared, and their performance is evaluated usin

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Predicting Biochemical Oxygen Demand at the Inlet of Al-Rustumiya Wastewater Treatment Plant Using Different Mathematical Techniques
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Water quality planning relies on Biochemical Oxygen Demand BOD. BOD testing takes five days. The Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is increasingly used for water resource forecasting. This work designed a PSO technique for estimating everyday BOD at Al-Rustumiya wastewater treatment facility inlet. Al-Rustumiya wastewater treatment plant provided 702 plant-scale data sets during 2012-2022. The PSO model uses the daily data of the water quality parameters, including chemical oxygen demand (COD), chloride (Cl-), suspended solid (SS), total dissolved solids (TDS), and pH, to determine how each variable affects the daily incoming BOD. PSO and multiple linear regression (MLR) findings are compared, and their perfor

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2008
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
قياس وتحليل تفاعل عمل المضاعف والمعجل في الاقتصاد العراقي باستخدام نموذج المستخدم – المنتج الديناميكي
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The individual average income is considered one of the most used criteria for the distinguishing between the developed and the developing countries, for this reason the efforts of economic development has been construed on increasing the average national income, the investment expenditures is considered one of the basic foundations for economic development operation which lead to the expanding the prodection power of the economy, and increasing the level of national income in an averages greaten than the primary expenditures due to the work and interaction between the multiplier and the accelerator. But the ability of the economic sectors in the generation of national income as a result of the primary expenditures is different fr

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 21 2022
Journal Name
مجلة كلية الرافدين للعلوم الجامعة
تحليل وقياس الاستدامة المالية لصندوق التقاعد والضمان الاجتماعي في العراق للمدة 2004-2018
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يعد تحليل السلاسل الزمنية من المواضـيع الهامة في تفسير الظـواهر التي تحدث خلال فترة زمنية معينة. ان الهدف من هذا لتحليل هو الحصـول على وصف وبنـاء أنموذج مناسب من اجل اعطاء صورة مستقبلية واضحة للسلاسل الزمنية المدروسة وان السلاسل الزمنية اهم الادوات المستخدمة في بناء وتقدير والتنبؤ بالظواهر المختلفة وان الاستدامة المالية هي الحالة التي تكون فيها الدولة قادرة على الوفاء بالتزاماتها الحالية والمستقبلية من غي

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Prediction of the number of births in the Governorate of Basra for the period (1998-2050)
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The adoption of many mathematical concepts contributes to the construction of models of sports and the population can be interpreted to explain the movement and growth of the population lead to proper planning to manage the requirements of the population and meet their needs of providing education or providing medical services, health and others. In this study, the number of births in the Governorate of Basrah for the period (1998-2050) is estimated to be based on the assumption that the population of the visually impaired is a stable society. If the rate of growth is (0.0492), some demographic indicators are important for maintaining the average age of women at pregnancy (27.817). Each woman will give birth (3.74) female birth d

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using panel data in structural equations with application
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The non static chain is always the problem of static analysis so that explained some of theoretical work, the properties of statistical regression analysis to lose when using strings in statistic and gives the slope of an imaginary relation under consideration.  chain is not static can become static by adding variable time to the multivariate analysis the factors to remove the general trend as well as variable placebo seasons to remove the effect of seasonal .convert the data to form exponential or logarithmic , in addition to using the difference repeated d is said in this case it integrated class d. Where the research contained in the theoretical side in parts in the first part the research methodology ha

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Dumping Policy & Its Impact In The Development of Agricultural Production In Iraq (2003- 2009)
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Dumping policy considered as one of the policies occurs severe damages to the developing countries apparently this is happens due to the potential weakness in (productive, technical, legislative, legal institutions) comparing with other developed countries who are members in WTO.

Iraq consider as one of the developing countries that has been effected by the dumping policy, the events in Iraq since downfall of the formal regime, and the allied forces domination of Iraq have all together accelerated in the apace of deterioration , particularly , after the temporary coalition authority  has forced Iraq to adopt a free foreign trade policy& exclusion of the state from the market mechanism & to consolidate import and deac

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
International Auditing Standards and their role in rationalizing the auditor's personal judgment in Iraq"
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The impact of the auditor's personal judgment starts from the beginning of the audit process to the formation of the final opinion and the issuance of the report, and because of the possibility of bias in the auditor's judgment for various reasons that may relate to the auditor himself or the circumstances surrounding it, which requires assessing the current reality of the auditor's personal judgments In the local environment and determining their determinations. To clarify the concept and determinants of the auditor's personal judgments when implementing the audit work, prepare the report and determine the role of the international auditing standards in rationalizing the auditor's personal judgment when conducti

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Used Approaches In Formulating Accounting Standards in Iraq & Their Develop Importance: filed Study
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This research aims to show the most important approaches applicable in forming the accounting standards , the  importance approaches used to formulate local accounting standards & the  need to cancel or develop the unified accounting system in Iraq besides activate the local auditing & accounting standards council to issue accounting standards able to save the relevance & Reliable accounting information that serve the decisions of stockholders and others of stakeholders in the incorporate companies , especially the companies listed in the Iraq securities exchange , So this study based partially on analyzing the questionnaire form which has been designed to inquiry the specialists and experts opinion about the accoun

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