Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
The impact of Jurisprudence Rules in Addressing Contemporary security Challenges
Islamic jurisprudence is related to various fields of knowledge, as it is a science of great value, great in impact, and among the most prominent features of jurisprudence comes the jurisprudence rules. It regulates the principles of the doctrine for the jurist. Therefore, the main this research focuses on (the impact of jurisprudence rules in addressing contemporary security challenges). It is the relationship between jurisprudence rules and achieving security. Its fruit would be a statement of the distinguished impact of jurisprudence rules on the stability of the country, and its leading role in maintaining, strengthening, and pre
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The purpose of the research is to determine how much do the external auditors’ qualifications in Iraq match the international requirements? And determine the necessary and priority requirements that the auditor should have in order to adapt with the changes in the community and the profession. The research partially focuses on comparing international institutes curriculum requirements with the local institutes’ curriculum requirements. Furthermore, it compares examinations of local students with the questions of these institutes and compares the requirements of these institutes to continuing vocational education with the local, as well as analyzes and presents the questionnaire results to find out the necessa
... Show MoreThis research examines the relationship between dinar deposits and U.S. dollar payments at the Central Bank of Iraq using monthly data for the period 2016–2025. The ARDL model, the GRU neural network, and a hybrid ARDL–GRU model are applied. The results show that dollar payments are stationary at level, while dinar deposits become stationary after first differencing, with a significant positive long-run cointegrating relationship. The linear ARDL model has limited ability to capture sudden shocks, whereas the hybrid ARDL–GRU model achieves superior forecasting performance both in-sample and out-of-sample. The findings confirm the Central Bank of Iraq’s efficiency in managing domestic and foreign liquidity and maintaining market stab
... Show MoreSurvival analysis is one of the types of data analysis that describes the time period until the occurrence of an event of interest such as death or other events of importance in determining what will happen to the phenomenon studied. There may be more than one endpoint for the event, in which case it is called Competing risks. The purpose of this research is to apply the dynamic approach in the analysis of discrete survival time in order to estimate the effect of covariates over time, as well as modeling the nonlinear relationship between the covariates and the discrete hazard function through the use of the multinomial logistic model and the multivariate Cox model. For the purpose of conducting the estimation process for both the discrete
... Show MoreThe research explain the analysis of finance investments through analyze the finance tables for commercial banks, by using the pointers to indicate the limits of economical benefit for these investments, and fix the negative deviations and as well positive, for the purpose of diagnostic the negative (disadvantage) and develop the advantage deviation, For the importance of finance investments in the development operation and economical growth, further to that the finance investments is represent one of the most activities in the commercial banks in which aim the adequate incomes as a result of the commercial banks act to receipt the banks deposits and then make it growth and develop through commercial advantage o
... Show MoreThe social networking sites have become one of the most important promotional instruments for their characteristic of facilitation of communication and the creation of public platform for discussion and formation of new points of view. These sites were used in the political marketing process where politicians use Facebook pages to promote their ideologies and spread their programs for the purpose of an influencing public opinion.
This research deals with the way by which political products are the Iraqi parliament. We adopt the methodology for analyzing the contents of these pages during three months starting from September,12 2016 to March 1, 2017 characterized by a lot of changes and events, in particular the beginning of the war o
In this paper, a comparison of production and domestic consumption of Iraq's food industries within economic environment of a sample of countries is presented. Tracked by a number of variables, To extrapolate the reality of this industry in terms of its importance to individual consumption and importance on national economy, then, to find size and type of obstacles facing the industry in Iraq. Relationship was measured through use of quantitative methods and digital data in the comparison process. Results showed that the large growth in the size of the population in Iraq is not the first multiplier in the high consumption of processed food, but the increase in the per-capita income. The treatment takes several aspects related to the gene
... Show MoreA modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey model with a Beddington-DeAngelis functional response is proposed and studied. The purpose is to examine the effects of fear and quadratic fixed effort harvesting on the system's dynamic behavior. The model's qualitative properties, such as local equilibria stability, permanence, and global stability, are examined. The analysis of local bifurcation has been studied. It is discovered that the system experiences a saddle-node bifurcation at the survival equilibrium point whereas a transcritical bifurcation occurs at the boundary equilibrium point. Additionally established are the prerequisites for Hopf bifurcation existence. Finally, using MATLAB, a numerical investigation is conducted to verify the va
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