Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
There are a number of obstacles in the field of work of social workers that prevent them from performing their full role. Their tasks may sometimes be easy and manageable and at other times they may be difficult and complex, however professional roles are mostly the latter, contribute to the feeling of the inability to provide the work required at the level expected by others. In such cases, the relationship binding specialists to their work is affected negatively and this has devastating effects on the professional process as a whole, including their professional practice. This feeling of helplessness and depletion of energy and effort leads to a state of fatigue and emotional exhaustion that can be defined as job burnout, our study aims t
... Show MoreThe need to create the optimal water quality management process has motivated researchers to pursue prediction modeling development. One of the widely important forecasting models is the sessional autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. In the present study, a SARIMA model was developed in R software to fit a time series data of monthly fluoride content collected from six stations on Tigris River for the period from 2004 to 2014. The adequate SARIMA model that has the least Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and mean squared error (MSE) was found to be SARIMA (2,0,0) (0,1,1). The model parameters were identified and diagnosed to derive the forecasting equations at each selected location. The correlation coefficien
... Show MoreThe need to create the optimal water quality management process has motivated researchers to pursue prediction modeling development. One of the widely important forecasting models is the sessional autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. In the present study, a SARIMA model was developed in R software to fit a time series data of monthly fluoride content collected from six stations on Tigris River for the period from 2004 to 2014. The adequate SARIMA model that has the least Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and mean squared error (MSE) was found to be SARIMA (2, 0, 0) (0,1,1). The model parameters were identified and diagnosed to derive the forecasting equations at each selected location. The correlat
... Show MoreThis study dealt with the basics of financial inclusion in terms of concept, importance and objectives, The empowerment of women financially and bank,and then the relationship between financial inclusion and women, and determine the requirements of inclusion Financial resources for women. The analytical descriptive method was used for data, which included reviewing and analyzing information And data in economic and financial literature. The study: reached a number of conclusions, the most important of which are Financial inclusion contributes to women's financial and banking support, as there is a positive relationship between financial institutions Banking and women's access to financial and banking services, thus playing a role i
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Tourism is one of the essential economic fields of many countries, both developed and developing. The social plays a greater role in the continuous awareness of a tourist culture based on the need to attract tourists continuously. the tourism heritage and state-owned tourism are the main factors in attracting more tourists. The interest in this strategic sector makes the country the first and most active framework in the development of appropriate mechanisms for investment in this sector, all within the framework of sustainable development of society through the rational use of resources obtained by various bodies in the implementation of seve
... Show MoreIn this paper, an attempt was made to measure and interpret the impact of several variables on global maritime transport, including: OECD industrial productions, high growth rates of some developing countries, and growth in world GDP. These variables contribute to higher rates of maritime transport revenues of 800 billion dollars annually; in the form of numerical sequences. The dry canal in Iraq was assumed to transfer 99 million tons of goods annually. This was made sure through the economic feasibility of the difference between maritime and land transport through railways. The effect of geographical and anthropological nature of Iraq on this project was studied too. Our findings indicated that the project will not drive growth
... Show MoreA modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey model with a Beddington-DeAngelis functional response is proposed and studied. The purpose is to examine the effects of fear and quadratic fixed effort harvesting on the system's dynamic behavior. The model's qualitative properties, such as local equilibria stability, permanence, and global stability, are examined. The analysis of local bifurcation has been studied. It is discovered that the system experiences a saddle-node bifurcation at the survival equilibrium point whereas a transcritical bifurcation occurs at the boundary equilibrium point. Additionally established are the prerequisites for Hopf bifurcation existence. Finally, using MATLAB, a numerical investigation is conducted to verify the va
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The purpose of the research is to determine how much do the external auditors’ qualifications in Iraq match the international requirements? And determine the necessary and priority requirements that the auditor should have in order to adapt with the changes in the community and the profession. The research partially focuses on comparing international institutes curriculum requirements with the local institutes’ curriculum requirements. Furthermore, it compares examinations of local students with the questions of these institutes and compares the requirements of these institutes to continuing vocational education with the local, as well as analyzes and presents the questionnaire results to find out the necessa
... Show MoreThe Social life contain an important side from the inherited Civilization to any
nation, is distinguished by activity and zeal. The old Indian is characterized with
closed and solidify socilal systems. This state had its influences on the activities of the
social movment. It astonished the conquered mushins – Arab to the India from the end
of the first centuny A.H we tried to change it by good works and made them become
aware, so this made radical active in the social India in Islamic period which is form
humanbeing nobilitie and their active deal in the society.
The research explain the analysis of finance investments through analyze the finance tables for commercial banks, by using the pointers to indicate the limits of economical benefit for these investments, and fix the negative deviations and as well positive, for the purpose of diagnostic the negative (disadvantage) and develop the advantage deviation, For the importance of finance investments in the development operation and economical growth, further to that the finance investments is represent one of the most activities in the commercial banks in which aim the adequate incomes as a result of the commercial banks act to receipt the banks deposits and then make it growth and develop through commercial advantage o
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