Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
Increasing material prices coupled with the emission of hazardous gases through the production and construction of Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA) has driven a strong movement toward the adoption of sustainable construction technology. Warm Mix Asphalt (WMA) is considered relatively a new technology, which enables the production and compaction of asphalt concrete mixtures at temperatures 15-40 °C lower than that of traditional hot mix asphalt. The Resilient modulus (Mr) which can be defined as the ratio of axial pulsating stress to the corresponding recoverable strain, is used to evaluate the relative quality of materials as well as to generate input for pavement design or pavement evaluation and analysis. Based on the aforementioned preface, it is
... Show MoreThe absence of ecological perception in the local urbanization resulted in the lack of a clear conception of achieving sustainability in its simplest form in the urban reality and in the city of Baghdad in particular. The research assumes the possibility of achieving urban sustainability in Iraqi cities by applying the cities for the most effective methods to implemented ecological solutions and introducing appropriate urban planning tools and improve the living environment. The research focuses on the ability to define some aspects to achieve a sustainable local urban identity from global experiences. This was performed by proposing a scheduled theoretical framework, through which the features of sustainability can be extrapolated from the
... Show MoreProductivity estimating of ready mixed concrete batch plant is an essential tool for the successful completion of the construction process. It is defined as the output of the system per unit of time. Usually, the actual productivity values of construction equipment in the site are not consistent with the nominal ones. Therefore, it is necessary to make a comprehensive evaluation of the nominal productivity of equipment concerning the effected factors and then re-evaluate them according to the actual values.
In this paper, the forecasting system was employed is an Artificial Intelligence technique (AI). It is represented by Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to establish the predicted model to estimate wet ready mixe
... Show MoreThe basic analytical formula for particle-hole state densities is derived based on the non-Equidistant Spacing Model (non-ESM) for the single-particle level density (s.p.l.d.) dependence on particle excitation energy u. Two methods are illustrated in this work, the first depends on Taylor series expansion of the s.p.l.d. about u, while the second uses direct analytical derivation of the state density formula. This treatment is applied for a system composing from one kind of fermions and for uncorrected physical system. The important corrections due to Pauli blocking was added to the present formula. Analytical comparisons with the standard formulae for ESM are made and it is shown that the solution reduces to earlier formulae providing m
... Show MoreThis study included the extraction properties of spatial and morphological basins studied using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model linked to (GIS) to find the amount of sediment and rates of flow that flows into the Haditha reservoir . The aim of this study is determine the amount of sediment coming from the valleys and flowing into the Haditha Dam reservoir for 25 years ago for the period (1985-2010) and its impact on design lifetime of the Haditha Dam reservoir and to determine the best ways to reduce the sediment transport. The result indicated that total amount of sediment coming from all valleys about (2.56 * 106 ton). The maximum annual total sediment load was about (488.22 * 103 ton) in year 1988
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In this paper, fatigue damage accumulation were studied using many methods i.e.Corton-Dalon (CD),Corton-Dalon-Marsh(CDM), new non-linear model and experimental method. The prediction of fatigue lifetimes based on the two classical methods, Corton-Dalon (CD)andCorton-Dalon-Marsh (CDM), are uneconomic and non-conservative respectively. However satisfactory predictions were obtained by applying the proposed non-linear model (present model) for medium carbon steel compared with experimental work. Many shortcomings of the two classical methods are related to their inability to take into account the surface treatment effect as shot peening. It is clear that the new model shows that a much better and cons
... Show MoreAerial Robot Arms (ARAs) enable aerial drones to interact and influence objects in various environments. Traditional ARA controllers need the availability of a high-precision model to avoid high control chattering. Furthermore, in practical applications of aerial object manipulation, the payloads that ARAs can handle vary, depending on the nature of the task. The high uncertainties due to modeling errors and an unknown payload are inversely proportional to the stability of ARAs. To address the issue of stability, a new adaptive robust controller, based on the Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural network, is proposed. A three-tier approach is also followed. Firstly, a detailed new model for the ARA is derived using the Lagrange–d’A
... Show MoreThe introduction of concrete damage plasticity material models has significantly improved the accuracy with which the concrete structural elements can be predicted in terms of their structural response. Research into this method's accuracy in analyzing complex concrete forms has been limited. A damage model combined with a plasticity model, based on continuum damage mechanics, is recommended for effectively predicting and simulating concrete behaviour. The damage parameters, such as compressive and tensile damages, can be defined to simulate concrete behavior in a damaged-plasticity model accurately. This research aims to propose an analytical model for assessing concrete compressive damage based on stiffness deterioration. The prop
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