Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
أهمية البحث والحاجة إليه :
يعد نسيان المثيرات المعلوماتية التي يتعلمها أو يطلع عليها الفرد في حياته من المشكلات التي يعاني منها الأفراد في جميع مناحي الحياة وليس في مجال الدراسة الأكاديمية فحسب. وبالتالي فان هناك حاجة ملحة ومهمة لابتداع طرائق ووسائل وإمكانيات يمكن عن طريقها التقليل من نسيان المثيرات المعلوماتية المختلفة التي يتعلمها الفرد في حياته اليومية.
... Show More
Stop and stop Alsergsti classed many of the characteristics of great poets and
literary arts and persuasions, in Mqamth cash cash Antzmtha three criteria: the
standard of Islam and the standard time, and Maaartadd purposes of poetry. This
has had its effect on lighting stand many of the goals of the poets and their
attitudes.
The first criterion: Those who study the positions of Alsergsti to poetry and
poets must be discerned his money comes from the spirit of Islam as a religion and
creed and a system, a position that is encouraging him wherever expressed, such as
the Muslim community the new values, away from the vulgarity, which contributed
to the formulation of the standard of religious poetry criticism.
Ibn Khaldun is one of the best Arab Muslims scientists who participated in establishing Arabic Muslims heritage in all different disciplines & directions specially in sociology, neurological & his political theories which showed the development of Arabic philosophy in all scientific disciplines specially his introduction
أن الامم والشعوب لاتستطيع المحافظة على استمرار وجودها وتقدمها ورقيها، إلابفضل إعداد اجيالها المتعاقبة الاعداد السليم المتكامل ، وبقدر ما تحافظ الامم والشعوب على تربية هذه الاجيال للتمسك بدينها ، ومعتقداتها ، واخلاقها ، بقدر ما تحافظ على بقائها وعلو شأنها ، وكما فطنت الامم والشعوب إلى اهمية تربية اجيالها ، فطن اعداؤها الى ضرورة التخريب في جذور البناء الصحيح لتربية الاجيال ( فاطمة ، 1998، ص2).
... Show More
The process of doing many kinds of industries , crafts , professions around Islamic Arabian State , they enable us to say that Arab Muslims over their homelands had been occupied various types of crafts and manufacturing before emergence Islam . Moreover Islam encouraged to work within manufacture field . And These matters were clarified through verses of the Holy Qur’an and honored prophetic guidance ( Sunna ) . Whereas Arab Muslims applied principle “ Free of Business “ . They admitted to different social groups such as pact – fellows people to profession or craft which they desire to work . We have to not forget that Arab Muslims had broken all restraints and shackles which had restricted the worker bef
... Show MoreAbstract:
The research dealt with the study of animal drawings in the fresco, during the Umayyad period, especially in Qusayr Amra and Qasr al-Hayr al-Gharbi. Many imagesto different animals and birds were found and used in various subjects, most notably the hunting and predation scenes.
In the second millennium BC, the international community change at the ancient Near East, There has been a significant developments with the appearance of five kingdoms (Babylon, Assyria, Mitanni, Egypt, and Hatti) called themselves the (Great Powers) and their kings named (Great King), and Correspondence among themselves on behalf of (the brothers), to differentiate themselves from the small kingdoms Minor of them.
Media writing is accuracy writing. Clarity and concision are its predominant features. It is a writing that goes straight to the essence because it has no time to waste. Furthermore, it must be as accurate as scientific writing. It is destined for the average reader and has to be understood by everyone. However, it can be as elegant as literary writing. The variety in its forms of expression does not prevent media writing from having its own amplitude.
In short, this study is a practical approach that aims at studying different kinds of writing styles and identifying the specificity of media writing using some patterns and examples
Tremendous efforts have been exerted to understand first language acquisition to facilitate second language learning. The problem lies in the difficulty of mastering English language and adapting a theory that helps in overcoming the difficulties facing students. This study aims to apply Thomasello's theory of language mastery through usage. It assumes that adults can learn faster than children and can learn the language separately, and far from academic education. Tomasello (2003) studied the stages of language acquisition for children, and developed his theory accordingly. Some studies, such as: (Ghalebi and Sadighi, 2015, Arvidsson, 2019; Munoz, 2019; Verspoor and Hong, 2013) used this theory when examining language acquisition. Thus,
... Show Moreدور المراكز البحثية في الحياة السياسية وصنع القرار السياسي الخارجي الامريكي