Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
يعد التأمين أحد المؤسسات المالية ذات التأثير على برامج التنمية ، وما زال قطاع التأمين يعاني من العديد من المشاكل منها الوعي أو التشريع أو كيفية توظيفه كمورد اقتصادي واجتماعي خدمة للمجتمع والمؤسسات والافراد. وحيث أن التأمين يقدم خدمة تستوجب التزامها بمواصفات محددة ، لذا أصبح من الضروري دراسة آليات تحسين جودة الخدمة التأمينية وكذلك دراسة واقع العملية التسويقية للخدمة التأمينية وما ينالها من تحديات داخلية أ
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The factor that keeps society from collapsing and regressing to chaos, violence, and lawbreaking is to stick to the human moral principles and criteria of moral behavior that prevent the spread of corruption and crime to the extent that law becomes devoid of activity and loss its dot errant power in front of chaos. The role of moral behavior is to motivate individuals to respect the general laws in dealing with others. Because of the dissemination of odd behavior patterns within our society, the social links are been badly affected and it's urgent for educational institutions to perform their duty in working on spreading awareness about moral values and avoid deviant directions and socially threatening t
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This paper tackles the theme of alienation as being a concurrent state of human being from birth to death; so extensive is the description of this state by writers. Alienation has been a product of their hard experiences and miserable lives. One such writer is Jean-Marie Gustave le Clézio who was so perfect in describing alienation in his works. Upon so many occasions, he imagined one or more of his characters as living in a chaotic world and so lived safely in alienation. The novel "Le Procès-Verbal" is one of the most important of his works. This paper deals with e the narrative structure of novel while shedding light on the hero's alienation: its essence and causes.
... Show MoreThe study deals with the issue of multi-choice linear mathematical programming. The right side of the constraints will be multi-choice. However, the issue of multi-purpose mathematical programming can not be solved directly through linear or nonlinear techniques. The idea is to transform this matter into a normal linear problem and solve it In this research, a simple technique is introduced that enables us to deal with this issue as regular linear programming. The idea is to introduce a number of binary variables And its use to create a linear combination gives one parameter was used multiple. As well as the options of linear programming model to maximize profits to the General Company for Plastic Industries product irrigation sy
... Show MoreIn this paper, Bayes estimators for the shape and scale parameters of Weibull distribution have been obtained using the generalized weighted loss function, based on Exponential priors. Lindley’s approximation has been used effectively in Bayesian estimation. Based on theMonte Carlo simulation method, those estimators are compared depending on the mean squared errors (MSE’s).
In this paper, we study a single stress-strength reliability system , where Ƹ and ƴ are independently Exponentiated q-Exponential distribution. There are a few traditional estimating approaches that are derived, namely maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and the Bayes (BE) estimators of R. A wide mainframe simulation is used to compare the performance of the proposed estimators using MATLAB program. A simulation study show that the Bayesian estimator is the best estimator than other estimation method under consideration using two criteria such as the “mean squares error (MSE)” and “mean absolutely error (MAPE)”.
إن النجاح في أداء المتطلبات الفنية والخططية في أي من الألعاب ألرياضيه يستوجب امتلاك العناصر الاساسيه المتعلقة بطبيعة الاداء ونوع الفعالية الرياضية الممارسة , لذا فان اغلب الألعاب الرياضية تعتمد على مكونات ألقدره التوافقيه والادراكيه الحسيه بوصفها احد العناصر الاساسيه في المستويات العليا لما توفره من قاعدة اقتران للصفات البدنيه والحر كيه وقدرات أجهزة الجسم الوظيفية , وفقا للأسس المعتمدة في بناء مهاراته, وع
... Show MoreBackground: The problem of difficult gallbladder is not clearly defined and associated with real missing of therapeutic approaches that decreased morbidity. Moreover, the difficult gallbladder was reported as a contributing risk factor for biliary injury due to raised difficulty in surgical dissection within Calot’s triangle. The aim of this study is to determine the surgical outcomes of the open fundus-first cholecystectomy in lowering the rate of lethal intraoperative risks.
Subjects and Methods: Our prospective study conducted during the period of January 2019 to December 2022 at Ibn Sina specialized hospital, Khartoum, Sudan, for two hundred and fifty-three patients underw
... Show MoreСтатья посвящена возможности использования в обучении русскому языку как иностранному лингвоориентированной методики для арабских студентов. Обосновывается термин «лингвоориентированная методика», предложенный В. Н. Вагнер, и на основе положений заявленной методики проводится сопоставление изучаемого (русского) языка с родным (арабским) языком обучающихся.