Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequency squares method by "Kalman filter" and "forgetting factor" to obtain the best predictable way for the future using data from the Social Security Department for workers and from the period 1/2013 to 6/2019 where The method of least squares "OLS" was compared with the method of iterative least squares "RLS" by "Karman Filter" and found that "OLS" method is the best according to the comparison measures "RMSE, MAPE" and it gave accurate results close to the real values
The research aims to identify the most important difficulties facing the scientific research in the technical university in the financial, organizational and administrative according to the quality standards according to the paragraphs studied in the questionnaire questionnaire prepared for this purpose, including the research community on the Central Technical University, which includes several technical colleges and technical institutes were selected A sample of the researchers in the Institute of Technical Management where the number of training was 78 teachers took a random sample of researchers amounted to 40% of the questionnaire, and after the collection and classification of data were used statistical means, including the mean ar
... Show MoreIn The Name of Allah Most Gracious Most Merciful
The fundamentals of jurisprudence have a great role in facilitating the ways to know the Shari’a rulings for everything that takes place between people in terms of relationships, and the actions that are issued by them, because without it, the sources from which the rulings were taken are not known, and the methods used by the imams of ijtihad in taking these rulings from those sources are not understood. The foundations on which they followed in the interpretation of texts and its rules, and Muslim scholars in different eras celebrated this science and gave it great care: with what they wrote in it from the works of different directions, but of course the complexity printed many
... Show MoreThe Anticyclone Merge affects Iraq’s climate clearly through its impact on the different climatic elements. where it appears while they pass through special and distinctive weather . and most of this affection appears in temperatures, Therefore, this research study the relationship between the repetition and the survival period of the Anticyclone Merge and temperature average by using coefficient correlation (Pearson) that shows there’s strong inverse relationship between the integration of Anticyclones and temperatures average. &nbs
... Show MoreThe practice of art is an inevitable result imposed by the circumstances surrounding the human being, as he needs some knowledge associated with raw materials, tools and methods to develop skills in the formation of elements of the work of art in new ways that give a decent artistic appearance to the work of art. Through the exploratory study carried out by the researcher, which included asking the following question to the third grade students, Department of Art Education:
What types of materials are used in handicrafts and from which sources are they obtained? Through the answers, the problem of research was founded as follows:
-Are the products of students of the Department of Art Education in the handicraft material d
... Show MoreThe design of components subjected to contact stress as local compressive stress is important in engineering application especially in ball and socket Joining. Two kinds of contact stress are introduced in the ball and socket joint, the first is from normal contact while the other is from sliding contact. Although joining two long links (drive shaft in steering cars) will cause the effect of flexural and tensional buckling stress in hollow columns through the ball and socket ends on the failure condition of the joining mechanism. In this paper the consideration of the combined effect of buckling Load and contact stress on the ball and socket joints have been taken, epically on the stress distribution in the contact area. Different
... Show MoreThe research aims to clarify the response of the GDP to the M1 shock. It includes access to the results using standard methods, where the standard model was built according to quarterly data using the program STATA 17. According to the joint integration model ARDL, the research found a long-term equilibrium positive for the relationship between GDP and the money supply in Iraq, as the change in the money supply by a certain percentage will lead to a change in GDP by about 71% of that percentage. In the event of a shock in the Iraqi economy, the impact of the M1 will differ from what it was before the shock, as the shock will increase its effectiveness towards GDP by about 10% more than before the shock. At the same time, the relationship
... Show MoreThe research included four topics: the definition of Imam al-Bazzazi, his scientific life, his sheikhs, his students, his writings, his death, and selected issues of his weight in the book of prayer. The Imam al-Bazazi is the son of Muhammad ibnShihabibn Yusuf. He is known as al-Khardizi al-Khawarizmi. The author did not adopt the definitions of language and terminology, and rarely mention the legal evidence adopted by the scholars in their opinions, and only to mention the views only, and the author, may God have mercy on him in his book on the sources of m The Prophet (peace and blessings of Allaah be upon him) said: "The Prophet (peace and blessings of Allaah be upon him) And fall down the order, the third issue, which is to leave the
... Show MoreIn the period after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the Federal Republic of Russia witnessed a setback in the overall strategic performance of the country, as it went through a stage of performance flop between the orientation towards Europe in the era of President Boris Yelsen (1991-1999), or the change of direction towards Eurasia, as the Russian Federation managed After President Vladimir Putin assumed power in 2000, from rebuilding the same state and preserving national unity and social cohesion, as well as building a phased military doctrine that made clear moves in Russian strategic thought and future directions towards regions of eternal importance in Russian strategic perception Lack of a set of motivations based on it:
... Show MoreMarriage outside the court is a manifestation of the oppression that women are subjected to in Iraq its seriousness comes out of the consequences that it leads to The. It overlooks the age of the girl and her marriage in younger age or coerced to marry as it leads to neglecting the affordability of marital relationship as long as the marriage does not have any legal or material consequences. The present study aims to detect Characteristics of both wives, husbands and families Who agree to marry her daughters outside the court. And the reasons that lead them to marry outside the courts. It also aims to provide information on the circumstances of marriage and reasons for refusing to ratify it in court. The study was based on the sample soc
... Show MoreVocational education is the basis of contemporary educational movement that aims at satisfying human needs. Societies can develop their human resources via setting programs for the working class as an aspect of the comprehensive national development. Vocational education is the main source of technical cadres the Iraqi labor market requires of the vocational preparatory schools to provide after three years of schooling.
The vocational schools of the governorate of Basra have a number of problems that lead to the lack of proficiency of their graduates. This study is an attempt to identify these problems or obstacles
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