The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
A large number of researchers had attempted to identify the pattern of the functional relationship between fertility from a side and economic and social characteristics of the population from another, with the strength of effect of each. So, this research aims to monitor and analyze changes in the level of fertility temporally and spatially in recent decades, in addition to estimating fertility levels in Iraq for the period (1977-2011) and then make forecasting to the level of fertility in Iraq at the national level (except for the Kurdistan region), and for the period of (2012-2031). To achieve this goal has been the use of the Lee-Carter model to estimate fertility rates and predictable as well. As this is the form often has been familiar
... Show MoreThis work describes the enhancement of phenol red decolorization through immobilizing of laccase in chitosan and enzyme recycling. Commercial laccase from white rot fungus, Trametesversicolor (Tvlac), was immobilizedin to freshly prepared chitosan beads by using glutaraldehyde as a cross linker. Characterization of prepared chitosan was confirmed by FTIR and scanning electron microscope (SEM). Tvlac (46.2 U/mL) immobilized into chitosan beads at 0.8 % glutaraldehyde (v/v) within 24 hrs. Synthetic (HBT) and natural (vanillin) mediators were used to enhance dye decolorizoation. It was found that 89 % of phenol red was decolorized by chitosan beads within 180 min. in the absence of enzyme and mediator, while decolorization percenta
... Show MoreSocieties developed throughout history with the development of life technology, that ideas presented by the contemporary art have been crystallized. The development included all the artistic fields such as the dramatic arts which depend on many effects and elements that led to the completion of the structure of the theater show. Scenography is considered one of the most important elements that the theatre show depends on such as the decoration, lighting, sound effects, costumes and accessories. The research addressed the following question: what are the characteristics and traits of scenography in the theatre show?
The research importance has become clear because it sheds lights on the characteristics of scenography in the Iraqi thea
In this research paper, two techniques were used to treat the drill cuttings resulting from the oil-based drilling fluid. The drill cuttings were taken from the southern Rumaila fields which prepared for testing and fixed with 100 gm per sample and contaminated with two types of crude oil, one from Rumaila oilfields with Sp.gr of 0.882 and the other from the eastern Baghdad oilfield with Sp.gr of 0.924 besides contamination levels of 10% and 15% w/w in mass. Samples were treated first with microwave with a power applied of 540 & 180 watts as well as a time of 50 minutes. It was found that the results reached below 1% w/w in mass, except for two samples they reached below 1.5% w/w in mass. Then, the sample of 1.41% w/w in mass,
... Show MoreA new Species of the Cerambycinae belonging to the genus Hesperophanes was found new to the fauna of Iraq and Science. H. testaceus was studied in details and the male genitalia were illustrated. Type's paratypes and the locality of this newly described Species were mentioned.
This paper presents a computer simulation model of a thermally activated roof (TAR) to cool a room using cool water from a wet cooling tower. Modeling was achieved using a simplified 1-D resistance-capacitance thermal network (RC model) for an infinite slab. Heat transfer from the cooling pipe network was treated as 2-D heat flow. Only a limited number of nodes were required to obtain reliable results. The use of 6th order RC-thermal model produced a set of ordinary differential equations that were solved using MATLAB - R2012a. The computer program was written to cover all possible initial conditions, material properties, TAR system geometry and hourly solar radiation. The cool water supply was considered time
... Show MoreIntroduction/Aim. Seminal fluid analysis (SFA) plays a crucial role in helping infertility clinics diagnose the underlying reason of male infertility. The aim of the study was to investigate seminal fluid patterns of male partners of an infertile couple with apparently fertile female partners. Materials and methods. A cross-sectional study was conducted between January 2019 and December 2022. Patients were attending consultations for delayed conception for more than 12 months with apparently fertile female partner. Results. Four hundred fifty-three patients were included in the study. The distribution of patients according to age groups showed that 277 patients were young, aged 21 - 30 years (61%). Two hundred sixty-two (58%) patien
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In this search, we examined the factorial experiments and the study of the significance of the main effects, the interaction of the factors and their simple effects by the F test (ANOVA) for analyze the data of the factorial experience. It is also known that the analysis of variance requires several assumptions to achieve them, Therefore, in case of violation of one of these conditions we conduct a transform to the data in order to match or achieve the conditions of analysis of variance, but it was noted that these transfers do not produce accurate results, so we resort to tests or non-parametric methods that work as a solution or alternative to the parametric tests , these method
... Show MoreMicrofluidic devices provide distinct benefits for developing effective drug assays and screening. The microfluidic platforms may provide a faster and less expensive alternative. Fluids are contained in devices with considerable micrometer-scale dimensions. Owing to this tight restriction, drug assay quantities are minute (milliliters to femtoliters). In this research, a microfluidic chip consisting of micro-channels carved on substrate materials built using an Acrylic (Polymethyl Methacrylate, PMMA) chip was designed using a Carbon Dioxide (CO2) laser machine. The CO2 parameters influence the chip’s width, depth, and roughness. To have a regular channel surface, and low roughness, the laser power (60 W), with scanning speed (250 m/s)
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