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jeasiq-1925
Compare Prediction by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model from first order with Exponential Weighted Moving Average
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The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Efficiency Measurement Model for Postgraduate Programs and Undergraduate Programs by Using Data Envelopment Analysis
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Measuring the efficiency of postgraduate and undergraduate programs is one of the essential elements in educational process. In this study, colleges of Baghdad University and data for the academic year (2011-2012) have been chosen to measure the relative efficiencies of postgraduate and undergraduate programs in terms of their inputs and outputs. A relevant method to conduct the analysis of this data is Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The effect of academic staff to the number of enrolled and alumni students to the postgraduate and undergraduate programs are the main focus of the study.

 

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research obj

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
/ E-Readiness, UTAUT Model, Social Commerce
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Abstract

Objective / Purpose: Online social relationships through the emergence of Web 2.0 applications have become a new trend for researchers to study the behavior of consumers to shop online, as well as social networking sites are technologies that opened up opportunities for new business models. Therefore, a new trend has emerged, called social trade technology. In order to understand the behavioral intentions of the beneficiaries to adopt the technology of social trade, the current research aims at developing an electronic readiness framework and UTAUT model to understand the beneficiary's adoption of social trade technology.

Design/ methodology/ Approach: To achieve the obje

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 20 2020
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Applying Shrinkage Estimation Technique of P(Y<Max X1, X2,…, Xk) in Case of Generalized Exponential Distribution
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     This paper concerned with estimation reliability (­ for K components parallel system of the stress-strength model with non-identical components which is subjected to a common stress, when the stress and strength follow the Generalized Exponential Distribution (GED) with unknown shape parameter α and the known scale parameter θ (θ=1) to be common. Different shrinkage estimation methods will be considered to estimate ­ depending on maximum likelihood estimator and prior estimates based on simulation using mean squared error (MSE) criteria. The study approved that the shrinkage estimation using shrinkage weight function was the best.

 

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Publication Date
Thu May 11 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Estimation of the Parameter of an Exponential Distribution When Applying Maximum Likelihood and Probability Plot Methods Using Simulation
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 Exponential Distribution is probably the most important distribution in reliability work. In this paper, estimating the scale parameter of an exponential distribution was proposed through out employing maximum likelihood estimator and probability plot methods for different samples size. Mean square error was implemented as an indicator of performance for assumed several values of the parameter and computer simulation has been carried out to analysis the obtained results

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
MyBotS Prototype on Social Media Discord with NLP
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The continuous growth in technology and technological devices has led to the development of machines to help ease various human-related activities. For instance, irrespective of the importance of information on the Steam platform, buyers or players still get little information related to the application. This is not encouraging despite the importance of information in this current globalization era. Therefore, it is necessary to develop an attractive and interactive application that allows users to ask questions and get answers, such as a chatbot, which can be implemented on Discord social media. Artificial Intelligence is a technique that allows machines to think and be able to make their own decisions. This research showed that the dis

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Statistical testing mediation in structural equations models variables with practical application
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In this research was the study of a single method of estimation and testing parameters mediating variables (Mediation) in a specimen structural equations SEM a bootstrap method, for the purpose of application of the integrated survey of the situation Marital data and health mirror Iraqi (I-WISH) for the year 2011 from the Ministry of Planning - device Central Bureau of Statistics, and applied to the appropriate data from the terms of the data to a form of structural equation SEM using factor analysis affirmative (Confirmatory Factor analysis) CFA As a way to see the match variables that make up the model, and after confirming the model matching or suitability are having the effect of variables mediation in the model tested by the

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Efficient Energy Management for a Proposed Integrated Internet of Things-Electric Smart Meter (2IOT-ESM) System
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In this work, an efficient energy management (EEM) approach is proposed to merge IoT technology to enhance electric smart meters by working together to satisfy the best result of the electricity customer's consumption. This proposed system is called an integrated Internet of things for electrical smart meter (2IOT-ESM) architecture. The electric smart meter (ESM) is the first and most important technique used to measure the active power, current, and energy consumption for the house’s loads. At the same time, the effectiveness of this work includes equipping ESM with an additional storage capacity that ensures that the measurements are not lost in the event of a failure or sudden outage in WiFi network. Then then these

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 21 2021
Journal Name
Earth Resources And Environmental Remote Sensing/gis Applications Xii
Investigating the old city of Babylon: tracing buried structural history based on photogrammetry and integrated approaches
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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Efficient Energy Management for a Proposed Integrated Internet of Things-Electric Smart Meter (2IOT-ESM) System
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In this work, an efficient energy management (EEM) approach is proposed to merge IoT technology to enhance electric smart meters by working together to satisfy the best result of the electricity customer's consumption. This proposed system is called an integrated Internet of things for electrical smart meter (2IOT-ESM) architecture. The electric smart meter (ESM) is the first and most important technique used to measure the active power, current, and energy consumption for the house’s loads. At the same time, the effectiveness of this work includes equipping ESM with an additional storage capacity that ensures that the measurements are not lost in the event of a failure or sudden outage in WiFi network. Then then these measurement

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