The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
Abstract: Stars whose initial masses are between (0.89 - 8.0) M☉ go through an Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB) phase at the end of their life. Which have been evolved from the main sequence phase through Asymptotic Giant Branch (AGB). The calculations were done by adopted Synthetic Model showed the following results: 1- Mass loss on the AGB phase consists of two phases for period (P <500) days and for (P>500) days; 2- the mass loss rate exponentially increases with the pulsation periods; 3- The expansion velocity VAGB for our stars are calculated according to the three assumptions; 4- the terminal velocity depends on several factors likes metallicity and luminosity. The calculations indicated that a super wind phase (S.W) developed on the A
... Show MoreThe Ciliophoran Trichodina magna Van As and Basson, 1989 is recorded for the first time in in Iraq from gills of the blue tilapia Oreochromis aureus (Steindachner, 1864) Iraq from Al-Graiat location on the Tigris River at Baghdad city. The description and measurements of this external parasite as well as its illustrations are given.
Five fish species were collected from Tigris river at Al-Adhamiyah region, Baghdad during the period from September to December 2011. These fishes were examined for ectoparasites. They were infected with 13 species of parasites which included one species of ciliated protozoans and 12 species of monogeneans. Among such parasites, Ligophorus imitans Euzet et Suriano, 1977 is reported for the first time in Iraq. In addition, eight new host records in Iraq were reported in the present study.
The research aims to study the administrative problems in the sports management of the members of the administrative bodies of the first-class clubs of the province of Baghdad in football. The researchers used the descriptive approach (survey study) for its relevance to the nature of the research. The research community is represented by first-class football players, who numbered (176) players. The research sample was chosen by the deliberate method, as the basic research sample reached (136) individuals from the total research community. The researchers used the questionnaire to collect the necessary data to achieve the goal of the research by applying a questionnaire that aims to ident
... Show MoreThe aim of present study is to determine the optimum parameters of friction stir welding process and known the most important parameter along with percentage contribution of each parameter which effect on tensile strength and joint efficiency of FS welded joint of dissimilar aluminum alloys AA2024-T3 and AA7075-T73 of 3 mm thick plates by applied specific number of experiments using Taguchi method .AA2024 was placed on the advancing side and AA7075 on the retreating side. FSW was achieved under three different rotation speeds (898, 1200 and 1710) rpm, three different welding speeds (20, 45 and 69) mm\min , three different pin profiles (cylindrical, threaded cylindrical and cone) and tool tilt angle 2◦. Taguchi method w
... Show MoreThis paper deals with defining Burr-XII, and how to obtain its p.d.f., and CDF, since this distribution is one of failure distribution which is compound distribution from two failure models which are Gamma model and weibull model. Some equipment may have many important parts and the probability distributions representing which may be of different types, so found that Burr by its different compound formulas is the best model to be studied, and estimated its parameter to compute the mean time to failure rate. Here Burr-XII rather than other models is consider because it is used to model a wide variety of phenomena including crop prices, household income, option market price distributions, risk and travel time. It has two shape-parame
... Show MoreMultilevel models are among the most important models widely used in the application and analysis of data that are characterized by the fact that observations take a hierarchical form, In our research we examined the multilevel logistic regression model (intercept random and slope random model) , here the importance of the research highlights that the usual regression models calculate the total variance of the model and its inability to read variance and variations between levels ,however in the case of multi-level regression models, the calculation of the total variance is inaccurate and therefore these models calculate the variations for each level of the model, Where the research aims to estimate the parameters of this m
... Show MoreThis paper studies a novel technique based on the use of two effective methods like modified Laplace- variational method (MLVIM) and a new Variational method (MVIM)to solve PDEs with variable coefficients. The current modification for the (MLVIM) is based on coupling of the Variational method (VIM) and Laplace- method (LT). In our proposal there is no need to calculate Lagrange multiplier. We applied Laplace method to the problem .Furthermore, the nonlinear terms for this problem is solved using homotopy method (HPM). Some examples are taken to compare results between two methods and to verify the reliability of our present methods.