The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
The aim of present study is to determine the optimum parameters of friction stir welding process and known the most important parameter along with percentage contribution of each parameter which effect on tensile strength and joint efficiency of FS welded joint of dissimilar aluminum alloys AA2024-T3 and AA7075-T73 of 3 mm thick plates by applied specific number of experiments using Taguchi method .AA2024 was placed on the advancing side and AA7075 on the retreating side. FSW was achieved under three different rotation speeds (898, 1200 and 1710) rpm, three different welding speeds (20, 45 and 69) mm\min , three different pin profiles (cylindrical, threaded cylindrical and cone) and tool tilt angle 2◦. Taguchi method w
... Show MoreAdsorption of lead ions from wastewater by native agricultural waste, precisely tea waste. After the activation and carbonization of tea waste, there was a substantial improvement in surface area and other physical characteristics which include density, bulk density, and porosity. FTIR analysis indicates that the functional groups in tea waste adsorbent are aromatic and carboxylic. It can be concluded that the tea waste could be a good sorbent for the removal of Lead ions from wastewater. Different dosages of the adsorbents were used in the batch studies. A random series of experiments indicated a removal degree efficiency of lead reaching (95 %) at 5 ppm optimum concentration, with adsorbents R2 =97.75% for tea. Three mo
... Show MoreIn this study, the potential of adsorption of amoxicillin antibiotic (AMOX) from aqueous solutions using prepared activated carbon (AC) was studied. The used AC was prepared from an inexpensive and available precursor (sunflower seed hulls (SSH)) and activated by potassium hydroxide (KOH). The prepared AC was examined for its ability to remove AMOX from aqueous contaminated solutions and characterized with the aid of N2 -adsorption/desorption isotherm Brunauer–Emmett– Teller, scanning electron microscopy, energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy and Fourier-transform infrared. Zeta potential of the prepared activated carbon from sunflower seed hulls (SSHAC) were studied in relation to AMOX adsorption. The physical and chemical propert
... Show MoreThis article suggests and explores a three-species food chain model that includes fear effects, refuges depending on predators, and cannibalism at the second level. The Holling type II functional response determines food consumption between stages of the food chain. This study examined the long-term behavior and impacts of the suggested model's essential elements. The model's solution properties were studied. The existence and stability of every probable equilibrium point were examined. The persistence needs of the system have been determined. It was discovered what conditions could lead to local bifurcation at equilibrium points. Appropriate Lyapunov functions are utilized to investigate the overall dynamics of the system. To support the a
... Show MoreCox regression model have been used to estimate proportion hazard model for patients with hepatitis disease recorded in Gastrointestinal and Hepatic diseases Hospital in Iraq for (2002 -2005). Data consists of (age, gender, survival time terminal stat). A Kaplan-Meier method has been applied to estimate survival function and hazerd function.
Local and global bifurcations of food web model consists of immature and mature preys, first predator, and second predator with the current of toxicity and harvesting was studied. It is shown that a trans-critical bifurcation occurs at the equilibrium point
In this paper, the general framework for calculating the stability of equilibria, Hopf bifurcation of a delayed prey-predator system with an SI type of disease in the prey population, is investigated. The impact of the incubation period delay on disease transmission utilizing a nonlinear incidence rate was taken into account. For the purpose of explaining the predation process, a modified Holling type II functional response was used. First, the existence, uniform boundedness, and positivity of the solutions of the considered model system, along with the behavior of equilibria and the existence of Hopf bifurcation, are studied. The critical values of the delay parameter for which stability switches and the nature of the Hopf bifurcat
... Show MoreLacing reinforcement plays a critical role in the design and performance of reinforced concrete (RC) slabs by distributing the applied loads more evenly across the slab, ensuring that no specific area of the slab is overloaded. In this study, nine slabs, divided into three groups according to the investigated parameters, were meticulously designed and evaluated to study the interplay between the lacing reinforcement and other key parameters. Each slab was crafted for simple support and was subjected to both static and repeated two-point load tests. The lacing reinforcement had an angle of 45° with various tension and lacing steel. The repeated-tested specimens with lacing reinforcement experienced smaller ductility than those of s
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