The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
Linear discriminant analysis and logistic regression are the most widely used in multivariate statistical methods for analysis of data with categorical outcome variables .Both of them are appropriate for the development of linear classification models .linear discriminant analysis has been that the data of explanatory variables must be distributed multivariate normal distribution. While logistic regression no assumptions on the distribution of the explanatory data. Hence ,It is assumed that logistic regression is the more flexible and more robust method in case of violations of these assumptions.
In this paper we have been focus for the comparison between three forms for classification data belongs
... Show MoreA comparison of double informative and non- informative priors assumed for the parameter of Rayleigh distribution is considered. Three different sets of double priors are included, for a single unknown parameter of Rayleigh distribution. We have assumed three double priors: the square root inverted gamma (SRIG) - the natural conjugate family of priors distribution, the square root inverted gamma – the non-informative distribution, and the natural conjugate family of priors - the non-informative distribution as double priors .The data is generating form three cases from Rayleigh distribution for different samples sizes (small, medium, and large). And Bayes estimators for the parameter is derived under a squared erro
... Show MoreWastewater treatment plants operators prefer to make adjustments because they are more cost effective, to use the existing tank instead of building new ones. In this case an imported materials would be used as bio-loads to increase biomass and thus maintain efficiency as the next organic loading increases.In the present study, a local substance "pumice stone" was used as a biological carrier in the aeration tank, and the experiments were carried out in five stages: without biological carriers, filling ratio of 4%,10%,20%, and25% with pumice stone, the maximum organic loading at each stage (1.1884, 1.2144, 1.9432, 2.7768, 3.3141)g BOD /l.d respectively.Other experiments were carried out to determine the best filling ratio, the SS remova
... Show MoreThe current study aims to identify the level of adaptation of the curriculum for visually handicapped pupils from the point of view of their teachers as well as to identify the level of adaptation of the educational programs offered to visually handicapped pupils from the point of view of their teachers. In order to achieve the goals of the research, the researcher developed two tools to measure the adaptation of curricula and educational programs for pupils with visual handicapped from the point of view of teachers. The sample included (60) teachers from Al Noor Institute for Blinders in Baghdad, the two tools were applied to them, and then the Reliability and Validity coefficients were extracted. The results sh
... Show MoreThe monogenean Gyrodactylus bychowskianus Bogolepova, 1950 is recorded in the present study for the first time in Iraq from the gills of the cyprinid fish Arabibarbus grypus (Heckel, 1843); which was collected from the Tigris River at Al-Taji Beach north of Baghdad Province during the period from July until November 2018.
First record of Myxobolus insignis Eiras, Malta, Varella, Pavanelli, 2005 (Myxozoa: Myxobolidae) in Iraq from gills of the common carp Cyprinus carpio
The occurrence of two species of the genus Myxobolus Bütschli, 1882 (Myxozoa: Myxosporea) for the first time in Iraq from freshwater fishes.
Three monogeneans: Dactylogyrus folkmanovae from gills of Chondrostoma regium, D. reinii from gills of Mesopotamichthys sharpeyi and D. robustus from gills of Leuciscus vorax were collected from Diyala River in Diyala Province. The description, measurements and illustrations of these parasites were given.
In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed and studied to describe the spread of shigellosis disease in the population community. We consider it divided into four classes namely: the 1st class consists of unaware susceptible individuals, 2nd class of infected individuals, 3rd class of aware susceptible individuals and 4th class are people carrying bacteria. The solution existence, uniqueness as well as bounded-ness are discussed for the shigellosis model proposed. Also, the stability analysis has been conducted for all possible equilibrium points. Finally the proposed model is studied numerically to prove the analytic results and discussing the effects of the external sources for dis
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