The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
This study investigated the structural behavior of a beam–slab member fabricated using a steel C-Purlins beam carrying a profile steel sheet slab covered by a dry board sheet filled with recycled aggregate concrete, called a CBPDS member. This concept was developed to reduce the cost and self-weight of the composite beam–slab system; it replaces the hot-rolled steel I-beam with a steel C-Purlins section, which is easier to fabricate and weighs less. For this purpose, six full-scale CBPDS specimens were tested under four-point static bending. This study investigated the effect of using double C-Purlins beams face-to-face as connected or separated sections and the effect of using concrete material that contains different recycled
... Show MoreWe demonstrate a behavior of laser pulse grows through fiber laser inside and output cavity with a soliton fiber laser based on the multi-wall carbon nanotube saturable absorber (SA), we investigate the effects of a saturable absorber parameter on the mode-locking of a realistic Erbium fiber ring laser. Generalized nonlinear Schrodinger equation including the nonlinear effects as gain dispersion, second anomalous group velocity dispersion (GVD), self phase modulation (SPM), and two photon absorption used to describe pulse evolution. An analytical method has been used to understand and to quantify the role of the SA parameter on the propagation dynamics of pulse laser. We compute the chirp, power, width and phase of the soliton for range
... Show MoreThe logistic regression model regarded as the important regression Models ,where of the most interesting subjects in recent studies due to taking character more advanced in the process of statistical analysis .
The ordinary estimating methods is failed in dealing with data that consist of the presence of outlier values and hence on the absence of such that have undesirable effect on the result. &nbs
... Show MoreThe aim of this article is to solve the Volterra-Fredholm integro-differential equations of fractional order numerically by using the shifted Jacobi polynomial collocation method. The Jacobi polynomial and collocation method properties are presented. This technique is used to convert the problem into the solution of linear algebraic equations. The fractional derivatives are considered in the Caputo sense. Numerical examples are given to show the accuracy and reliability of the proposed technique.
Diabetes is one of the increasing chronic diseases, affecting millions of people around the earth. Diabetes diagnosis, its prediction, proper cure, and management are compulsory. Machine learning-based prediction techniques for diabetes data analysis can help in the early detection and prediction of the disease and its consequences such as hypo/hyperglycemia. In this paper, we explored the diabetes dataset collected from the medical records of one thousand Iraqi patients. We applied three classifiers, the multilayer perceptron, the KNN and the Random Forest. We involved two experiments: the first experiment used all 12 features of the dataset. The Random Forest outperforms others with 98.8% accuracy. The second experiment used only five att
... Show MoreThe research aimed to identify “The impact of an instructional-learning design based on the brain- compatible model in systemic thinking among first intermediate grade female students in Mathematics”, in the day schools of the second Karkh Educational directorate.In order to achieve the research objective, the following null hypothesis was formulated:There is no statistically significant difference at the significance level (0.05) among the average scores of the experimental group students who will be taught by applying an (instructional- learning) design based to on the brain–compatible model and the average scores of the control group students who will be taught through the traditional method in the systemic thinking test.The resear
... Show MoreIn this paper two modifications on Kuznetsov model namely on growth rate law and fractional cell kill term are given. Laplace Adomian decomposition method is used to get the solution (volume of the tumor) as a function of time .Stability analysis is applied. For lung cancer the tumor will continue in growing in spite of the treatment.
In this paper, a discrete SIS epidemic model with immigrant and treatment effects is proposed. Stability analysis of the endemic equilibria and disease-free is presented. Numerical simulations are conformed the theoretical results, and it is illustrated how the immigrants, as well as treatment effects, change current model behavior