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jeasiq-1925
Compare Prediction by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model from first order with Exponential Weighted Moving Average
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The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
التنبؤ بالأحتياجات من أدوية الأمراض المزمنة والمحافظة على المال العام* دراسة تطبيقية في دائرة العيادات الطبية الشعبية
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Abstract                                                                                

The health section is considered to be one of the most important section in the  field of service economical and social unit because of its concern in the life of human begin and society and the  process of determining t

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 17 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Experimental Simulation of Natural Heat Convection from Finned Vertical Plate with Different Inclinations
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In this work an experimental simulation is made to predict the performance of steady-state natural heat convection along heated finned vertical base plate to ambient air with different inclination angles and configurations of fin array. Two types of fin arrays namely vertical fins array and V-fins array on heated vertical base plate are used with different heights and spaces. The influence of inclination angle of the plate , configuration of fins array and fin geometrical parameters such as fin height and fin spacing on the temperature distribution, base convection heat transfer coefficient and average Nusselt number have been plotted and discussed. The experimental data are correlated to a formula between average Nusselt number versus R

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Bayes Estimators for the Parameter of the Inverted Exponential Distribution Under different Double informative priors
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In this paper, we present a comparison of double informative priors which are assumed for the parameter of inverted exponential distribution.To estimate the parameter of inverted exponential distribution by using Bayes estimation ,will be  used two different kind of information in the Bayes estimation; two different priors have been selected for the parameter of inverted exponential distribution. Also assumed Chi-squared - Gamma distribution, Chi-squared - Erlang distribution, and- Gamma- Erlang distribution as double priors. The results are the derivations of these estimators under the squared error loss function with three different double priors.

Additionally Maximum likelihood estimation method

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 14 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Sculptured Surface Design and Implementation by Lofting Design Method Using Cross-sectional B-Spline Curves
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This research presents a particular designing strategy for a free form of surfaces, constructed by the lofting design method. The regarded surfaces were created by sliding a B-spline curves (profile curves), in addition to describing an automatic procedure for selective identification of sampling points in reverse engineering applications using Coordinate Measurement Machine. Two models have been implemented from (Ureol material) to represent the different cases of B-spline types to clarify its scope of application. The interior data of the desired surfaces was designed by MATLAB software, which then were transformed to UG-NX9 software for connecting the sections that were designed in MATLAB program and obtaining G-code programs for the

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 20 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Comparison of Some of Estimation methods of Stress-Strength Model: R = P(Y < X < Z)
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In this study, the stress-strength model R = P(Y < X < Z)  is discussed as an important parts of reliability system by assuming that the random variables follow Invers Rayleigh Distribution. Some traditional estimation methods are used    to estimate the parameters  namely; Maximum Likelihood, Moment method, and Uniformly Minimum Variance Unbiased estimator and Shrinkage estimator using three types of shrinkage weight factors. As well as, Monte Carlo simulation are used to compare the estimation methods based on mean squared error criteria.  

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Diversity and Geographical Distribution of Sand Flies Phlebotomus papatasi (Diptera: Phlebotominae) by using Geometric Morphometric Technique from two Iraqi Provinces
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            The variation in wing morphological features was investigated using geometric morphometric technique of the Sand Fly from two Iraqi provinces Babylon and Diyala . We distributed eleven landmarks on the wings of Sand Fly species. By using the centroid size and shape together, all species were clearly distinguished.  It is clear from these results that the wing analysis is an essential method for future geometric morphometry studies to distinguish the species of Sand Flies in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role of the Auditor in Confirming the Integrated Reports - An Exploratory Study on a Sample of External Auditors in Iraq-
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  The aim of the research is to identify the extent of the ability to ensure the integrated reports by the auditor in verifying the credibility of these reports, and their implications for the benefit of all parties dealing with the economic unit, as well as measuring the impact of the assurance procedures followed by the auditors and their role in confirming these reports.

  The research methodology was designed after studying the previous literature related to the research variables, and then the relationship between these variables was tested, through the use of a questionnaire list. A questionnaire targeting the community of auditors in the local environment, and the results of the study wer

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 07 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Contribution of Behavioral Disorders to Predicting Bullying Patterns in a Sample of Adolescents with Autism Spectrum Disorder: College of Education and Arts - Northern Border University - Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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The present study aims to identify the role of behavioral disorders (anxiety disorder, behavior disorder "behavior", confrontation and challenge disorder, aggressive behavior) in predicting bullying patterns (verbal, physical, electronic, school) in a sample of adolescents with autism spectrum disorder. For this purpose, the researcher developed scales to measure the behavioral disorders and the bullying patterns among adolescents with autism spectrum disorder. The researcher adopted the descriptive survey approach. The study sample consists of (80) adolescents with autism spectrum disorder with ages range from (15-19 years) and (45-53 years old) in association with israr association for people with special needs in the northern borders

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analytical Study Compared Between Poisson and Poisson Hierarchical Model and Applied in Healthy Field
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Through this research, We have tried to evaluate the health programs and their effectiveness in improving the health situation through a study of the health institutions reality in Baghdad to identify the main reasons that affect the increase in maternal mortality by using two regression models, "Poisson's Regression Model" and "Hierarchical Poisson's Regression Model". And the study of that indicator (deaths) was through a comparison between the estimation methods of the used models. The "Maximum Likelihood" method was used to estimate the "Poisson's Regression Model"; whereas the "Full Maximum Likelihood" method were used for the "Hierarchical Poisson's Regression Model

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 31 2013
Journal Name
مجلة العلوم الاقتصادية والادارية
مقارنة بين مخطط السيطرة النسبي و مخطط السيطرة الضبابي المتعدد مع تطبيق عملي
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تعد لوحات السيطرة الخاصة بالمراقبة والسيطرة على نوعية الانتاج احدى الاساليب العلمية الاحصائية التي تستخدم لمراقبة سير العملية الانتاجية اثناء سيرالعنلية الانتاجية اثناء سيرها في مراحل الانتاج والتي عادة ما تتكون من حد وسطي وحدين اعلى وادنى للسيطرة على نوعية ودقة الانتاج متمثلا بقيم عددية . ومن ثم فان العملية الانتاجية اما ان تكون تحت السيطرة او خارجها بالاعتماد على قيم المشاهادات العددية. وفي بعض الاحيا

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