The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
Abstract
Sovereign wealth funds are an important tool for achieving economic stability and avoiding the local economy from external shocks, including the shocks of international oil prices. The spread of these funds is the result of large current account surpluses in many Asian and oil-exporting economies. These surpluses are due to higher commodity prices Has led to a rapid accumulation of foreign assets in central banks. Many countries with rent economies face the problem of their dependence on non-renewable natural resources, especially the oil countries, including Iraq. Oil revenues are more than 97% of oil exports, so they suffer from structural imbal
... Show MoreIs in this research review of the way minimum absolute deviations values based on linear programming method to estimate the parameters of simple linear regression model and give an overview of this model. We were modeling method deviations of the absolute values proposed using a scale of dispersion and composition of a simple linear regression model based on the proposed measure. Object of the work is to find the capabilities of not affected by abnormal values by using numerical method and at the lowest possible recurrence.
In this paper, we present a comparison of double informative priors which are assumed for the parameter of inverted exponential distribution.To estimate the parameter of inverted exponential distribution by using Bayes estimation ,will be used two different kind of information in the Bayes estimation; two different priors have been selected for the parameter of inverted exponential distribution. Also assumed Chi-squared - Gamma distribution, Chi-squared - Erlang distribution, and- Gamma- Erlang distribution as double priors. The results are the derivations of these estimators under the squared error loss function with three different double priors.
Additionally Maximum likelihood estimation method
... Show MoreThis paper deals with a new Henstock-Kurzweil integral in Banach Space with Bilinear triple n-tuple and integrator function Ψ which depends on multiple points in partition. Finally, exhibit standard results of Generalized Henstock - Kurzweil integral in the theory of integration.
Titanium alloys are broadly used in the medical and aerospace sectors. However, they are categorized within the hard-to-machine alloys ascribed to their higher chemical reactivity and lower thermal conductivity. This aim of this research was to study the impact of the dry-end-milling process with an uncoated tool on the produced surface roughness of Ti6Al4V alloy. This research aims to study the impact of the dry-end milling process with an uncoated tool on the produced surface roughness of Ti6Al4V alloy. Also, it seeks to develop a new hybrid neural model based on the training back propagation neural network (BPNN) with swarm optimization-gravitation search hybrid algorithms (PSO-GS
This research presents a particular designing strategy for a free form of surfaces, constructed by the lofting design method. The regarded surfaces were created by sliding a B-spline curves (profile curves), in addition to describing an automatic procedure for selective identification of sampling points in reverse engineering applications using Coordinate Measurement Machine. Two models have been implemented from (Ureol material) to represent the different cases of B-spline types to clarify its scope of application. The interior data of the desired surfaces was designed by MATLAB software, which then were transformed to UG-NX9 software for connecting the sections that were designed in MATLAB program and obtaining G-code programs for the
... Show MoreThe present study aims to identify the role of behavioral disorders (anxiety disorder, behavior disorder "behavior", confrontation and challenge disorder, aggressive behavior) in predicting bullying patterns (verbal, physical, electronic, school) in a sample of adolescents with autism spectrum disorder. For this purpose, the researcher developed scales to measure the behavioral disorders and the bullying patterns among adolescents with autism spectrum disorder. The researcher adopted the descriptive survey approach. The study sample consists of (80) adolescents with autism spectrum disorder with ages range from (15-19 years) and (45-53 years old) in association with israr association for people with special needs in the northern borders
... Show More: Summary The establishment of the modern Iraqi state necessitated the establishment of diplomatic relations with neighboring countries. However, during the British Mandate period, these relations remained under the management of the British Embassy, which assumed responsibility for Iraq's foreign affairs. As the political situation evolved, the Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs began making strenuous efforts to build a competent and effective diplomatic apparatus. Iraqi diplomatic representatives played an active role in strengthening and developing Iraq's foreign relations by implementing the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' directives, which focused on monitoring political, economic, and social developments in neighboring countries. This app
... Show MoreThis study presents a detailed morphology and taxonomic study of Polysiphonia subtilissima collected from Abdul Rehman Goth, Karachi coast, Pakistan. Polysiphonia is a filamentous heterotrichous red algae, characterized by its branching structures and attachment mechanisms. P. subtilissima is notable for its broad salinity tolerance and wide distribution across marine and freshwater ecosystems. This research provides an in-depth examination of the internal and external structures of P. subtilissima, contributing to its systematic study and documenting its first recorded occurrence in Pakistani coastal areas, bordering the northern Arabian Sea. The findings enhance the understanding of the species taxonomy and its ecological role in
... Show MoreThirty three specimens of the blue-cheeked bee-eater were collected at central and southern Iraq from April 1997 to October 2000. Two nematodes Hadjelia truncata and Syphaciella capensis, were recovered from the alimentary tract. Reporting these two nematodes represents the first record for Iraq as well as a new host record.