The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
This is a survey study that presents recent researches concerning factional controllers. It presents several types of fractional order controllers, which are extensions to their integer order counterparts. The fractional order PID controller has a dominant importance, so thirty-one paper are presented for this controller. The remaining types of controllers are presented according to the number of papers that handle them; they are fractional order sliding mode controller (nine papers), fuzzy fractional order sliding mode controller (five papers), fractional order lag-lead compensator (three papers), fractional order state feedback controller (three papers), fractional order fuzzy logic controller (three papers). Finally,
... Show MoreThis is a survey study that presents recent researches concerning factional controllers. It presents several types of fractional order controllers, which are extensions to their integer order counterparts. The fractional order PID controller has a dominant importance, so thirty-one paper are presented for this controller. The remaining types of controllers are presented according to the number of papers that handle them; they are fractional order sliding mode controller (nine papers), fuzzy fractional order sliding mode controller (five papers), fractional order lag-lead compensator (three papers), fractional order state feedback controller (three papers), fractional order fuzzy logic controller (three papers). Finally, several conclusions
... Show MoreThe concept of the order sum graph associated with a finite group based on the order of the group and order of group elements is introduced. Some of the properties and characteristics such as size, chromatic number, domination number, diameter, circumference, independence number, clique number, vertex connectivity, spectra, and Laplacian spectra of the order sum graph are determined. Characterizations of the order sum graph to be complete, perfect, etc. are also obtained.
This work deals with thermal cracking of heavy vacuum gas oil which produced from the top of vacuum distillation unit at Al- DURA refinery, by continuous process. An experimental laboratory plant scale was constructed in laboratories of chemical engineering department, Al-Nahrain University and Baghdad University. The thermal cracking process was carried out at temperature ranges between 460-560oC and atmospheric pressure with liquid hourly space velocity (LHSV) equal to 15hr-1.The liquid product from thermal cracking unit was distilled by atmospheric distillation device according to ASTM D-86 in order to achieve two fractions, below 220oC as a gasoline fraction and above 220oC as light cycle o
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The current research aims to identify the effect of using a model of generative learning in the achievement of first-middle students of chemical concepts in science. The researcher adopted the null hypothesis, which is there is no statistically significant difference at the level (0.05) between the mean scores of the experimental group who study using the generative learning model and the average scores of the control group who study using the traditional method in the chemical concepts achievement test. The research consisted of (200) students of the first intermediate at Al-Farqadin Intermediate School for Boys affiliated with the Directorate of General Education in Baghdad Governorate / Al-Karkh 3 wit
... Show MoreThe Current research aims to identify ( the effect of Carin model in the achievement of the first intermediate Grade Students and their Reflective Thinking in physics Subject ) the researcher selected the experimental design with a partial adjust , The research sample consisted of ( 47 ) Students with ( 23 ) Students in the experimental group and ( 24 ) Students in the control group , The two groups rewarded in the variables chronological age in months , Reflective Thinking and the degrees in physics in the first course. The researcher coined the purposes of behavioral which belong to chapter fifth, sixth, and seventh of physics books scheduled of the school year ( 2015-2016 ) and prepared appropriate lesson plans for the two experimenta
... Show MorePrediction of penetration rate (ROP) is important process in optimization of drilling due to its crucial role in lowering drilling operation costs. This process has complex nature due to too many interrelated factors that affected the rate of penetration, which make difficult predicting process. This paper shows a new technique of rate of penetration prediction by using artificial neural network technique. A three layers model composed of two hidden layers and output layer has built by using drilling parameters data extracted from mud logging and wire line log for Alhalfaya oil field. These drilling parameters includes mechanical (WOB, RPM), hydraulic (HIS), and travel transit time (DT). Five data set represented five formations gathered
... Show Moreمكانية استخدام السوق المالية في التنبؤ بالدورات الاقتصادية
Background/objectives: To study the motion equation under all perturbations effect for Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite. Predicting a satellite’s orbit is an important part of mission exploration. Methodology: Using 4th order Runge–Kutta’s method this equation was integrated numerically. In this study, the accurate perturbed value of orbital elements was calculated by using sub-steps number m during one revolution, also different step numbers nnn during 400 revolutions. The predication algorithm was applied and orbital elements changing were analyzed. The satellite in LEO influences by drag more than other perturbations regardless nnn through semi-major axis and eccentricity reducing. Findings and novelty/improvement: The results demo
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