The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
Bacteriocins were partially purified by ammonium sulphate 50% concentraction, bacteriocin activity of Pediococcus acidilactici-FMAC278 was 25600 U/ml with 5.8 folds and 7.6% yeild, the activity decrease to 12800 U/ml after dialysis with 6.3 folds and 3% yield, On the other hand the bacteriocin activity of Weissella paramesenteroides-DFR6 was 12800 U/ml with 2.7 folds and 8.8% yeild, after dialysis the activity became 6400 U/ml with 5.1 fold and 3.4% yield, Chicken Sausage were made by adding 0.25, 0.5 and 1% particaly purified bacteriocin to study its effect on microorganisms and increasing shelf life of Sausage. It is found that bacterial numbers were decreased after 3 days of storage at refrigerator at 0.5% conc. While the molds decrea
... Show MoreThe unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (I
... Show MoreThe present study is an attempt to throw light on the nature of the US policy regarding the Middle East region as portrayed by AI-Sabah, Al-Mashriq and Tariq Al-Shaab papers over a period of three months from 1st of July to 30th of September 2013.
In writing this study, a number of goals have been set by the researcher. These goals may include but in no way limited to the nature of the US image as carried by the above three papers, the nature of the topics tackled by them and the nature of the Arab countries which received more and extensive coverage than others.
A qualitative research approach is proposed for the study. This approach has allowed the researcher to arrive at definite answers for the possible questions rais
... Show MoreAll major organs may be impacted by the connective disease systemic lupus erythematosus, a separate risk factor for coronary artery disease (CAD). Adhesion molecules like intercellular adhesion molecules (ICAM) and vascular cell adhesion molecules (VCAM) can detect endothelial damage and dysfunction, which appear to play a crucial role. This study investigated whether people with SLE had elevated subclinical and clinical atherosclerosis risk factors. Traditional CAD risk factors such as smoking, hypertension, and hyperlipidemia cannot entirely explain this elevation. It is thought that immunological dysfunction also increases CAD risk in SLE patients. The study aimed to assess early endothelial changes in SLE Iraqi female patients w
... Show MoreBackground: The interest in herbal extracts as antimicrobial agents has increased over the past few years in endodontic therapy. Nasturtium officinale (watercress) is a promising plant with great medicinal values. This study aimed to investigate the antifungal activity of watercress oil in combination with calcium hydroxide against Candida albicans as intracanal medicament. Materials and Methods: Candida albicans was isolated from patients with necrotic root canal or failed root canal treatment. The sensitivity of Candida albicans to different concentrations of watercress oil extract was determined by using the agar well diffusion method in comparison with calcium hydroxide paste. The agar plate method was used to determine the minimum fung
... Show MoreChukar partridge Alectoris chukar (Gray, 1830) is the only species of the 46 species of the genus Alectoris to be found in Iraq. At least there are fourteen subspecies of chukar were described from east Europe, the Middle East and west Asia, two of them were known to be found in Iraq, A.c. Kurdestanica (Meinertzhagen, 1923) from Alpine bio-geographical zone of altitude more than 2000m high, and A.c. werae Zarundny and Loudon, 1904, from the foothills of altitude not more than 400m. In between these two regions, there is another bio-geographical region known as the Irano-toranian zone 400-2000m high. Using morphological, ecological, behavioural, reproduction and hybridization criteria this study discove
... Show MoreThe activity of Alanine aminopeptidase( AAP ) was measured in the urine of healthy and urinary tract cancer patients , the results showed higher activity of (AAP) in patients compared to healthy . AAP was Purified from the urine of healthy and patients with urinary tract cancer by dialysis and gel filtration (Sephadex G – 50) and two isoenzymes of (AAP) were separated from urine by using ion-exchang resin (DEAE – Sephadex A – 50 ) in previous study. The kinetics studies showed that both isoenzymes I and II obeyed Michaelis – Menton equation . with optimal concentration of alanine-4-nitroanilide as substrate for isoenzymes I and II which was (2 x 10-3 mol/L ). The two isoenzymes obeyed Arrhenius equation up two 37° C and t
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