The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
Medicinal plants are a source for a wide variety of natural active compounds and are used for the treatment of diseases throughout the world. Conocarpus erectus L. widely planted all over Iraq and has different secondary metabolites, which has been used in treatment of anemia, cancer, fever and diarrhea. The present study aims to estimate the antibacterial activity of Conocarpus erectus leaves extracts on some microorganisms collected from patients with burn infection. The study began with the collection of Conocarpus erectus leaves in June 2018 from the trees in university of Baghdad. Maceration method was used to prepare aqueous extract, while Soxhelt apparatus was used to prepare methanolic extract. The results of phytochemical test show
... Show MoreBackground: Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is caused of 85% of all lung cancers. Among the most important factors for lung tumor growth and proliferation are the tyrosine kinase receptors that coded by the epidermal growth factor recep-tor (EGFR) gene. Activation of EGFR ultimately leads to developing of lung cancer. The present study was undertaken with an objective to detect EGFR mutations in bronchial wash from Iraqi patients with NSCLC before treatment. Methods: DNA was extracted from bronchial wash samples collected from 50 patients with NSCLC by using a Qiamp DNA Mini Kit (Qiagen, Hilden, Germany). Then, EGFR mutations were determined by using real-time RCR combined with two technologies, Amplification Refractory Mutation System (
... Show MoreThe current study objective is to synthesize activated carbon (AC) from compressed wood using the ZnCl2 activating agent and to assess the ciprofloxacin (CIP) elimination efficiency in simulated wastewater. The produced AC was characterized using multiple techniques, including SEM, BET, FTIR, AFM, and XRD. The adsorbent demonstrates high adsorption performance, achieving 91% removal of CIP within 5 hours at an initial pollutant concentration of 100 mg/L with an AC dose of 2 g/L. Experimental data correspond to the Freundlich isotherm model (R² = 0.995) as well as the Langmuir competitive fitting (R² = 0.99), while the root mean square error (RMSE) equation best fits the Langmuir model. Moreover, the pseudo-second-order
... Show MoreBackground: Periodontal diseases are inflammatory disorders caused by the accumulation of oral biofilm and the host response to this accumulation which characterized by exaggerated leukocytes and neutrophils attraction to the sites of inflammation by chemoattractants which are a very important part of the pathogenesis of periodontal diseases. This study aimed to determine and compare the clinical periodontal parameters and the leukocyte cell types in the peripheral blood between patients with gingivitis and periodontitis with different severities compared to healthy controls. Materials and methods: This study included 150 male subjects aged between 35-50 years. They were divided into three groups: gingivitis group (n=30), periodontitis p
... Show MoreThe catalytic cracking of three feeds of extract lubricating oil, that produced as a by-product from the process of furfural extraction of lubricating oil base stock in AL-Dura refinery at different operating condition, were carried out at a fixed bed laboratory reactor. The initial boiling point for these feeds was 140 ºC for sample (1), 86 ºC for sample (2) and 80 ºC for sample (3). The catalytic cracking processes were carried out at temperature range 325-400 ºC and initially at atmospheric pressure after 30 minutes over 9.88 % HY-zeolite catalyst load. The comparison between the conversion at different operating conditions of catalytic cracking processes indicates that a high yield was obtained at 375°C, according to gasoline pr
... Show MoreA mathematical model constructed to study the combined effects of the concentration and the thermodiffusion on the nanoparticles of a Jeffrey fluid with a magnetic field effect the process of containing waves in a three-dimensional rectangular porous medium canal. Using the HPM to solve the nonlinear and coupled partial differential equations. Numerical results were obtained for temperature distribution, nanoparticles concentration, velocity, pressure rise, pressure gradient, friction force and stream function. Through the graphs, it was found that the velocity of fluid rises with the increase of a mean rate of volume flow and a magnetic parameter, while the velocity goes down with the increasing a Darcy number and lateral walls. Also, t
... Show MoreFounding a System to secure deposits and protecting the depositors is considered one of the important and exchanged subjects out there in the banking system/field in Iraq at the current time, and the reason behind the exchange and spread of this subject is due to the financial crisis of which the banking sector is suffering from and the stumbling of many banks, those factors have had led to the insecurity of the depositors and their mistrust towards banks, thus, it is necessary to create a system to secure deposits in which depositors would be compensated for the losses caused by the banks' failures. in addition, it could be a countermeasure system which maintains the banking stability, protects the rights of depositors and gains
... Show MoreInterval methods for verified integration of initial value problems (IVPs) for ODEs have been used for more than 40 years. For many classes of IVPs, these methods have the ability to compute guaranteed error bounds for the flow of an ODE, where traditional methods provide only approximations to a solution. Overestimation, however, is a potential drawback of verified methods. For some problems, the computed error bounds become overly pessimistic, or integration even breaks down. The dependency problem and the wrapping effect are particular sources of overestimations in interval computations. Berz (see [1]) and his co-workers have developed Taylor model methods, which extend interval arithmetic with symbolic computations. The latter is an ef
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