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jeasiq-1925
Compare Prediction by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model from first order with Exponential Weighted Moving Average
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The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Modified Weighted Pareto Distribution Type I (MWPDTI)
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In this paper, the Azzallini’s method used to find a weighted distribution derived from the standard Pareto distribution of type I (SPDTI) by inserting the shape parameter (θ) resulting from the above method to cover the period (0, 1] which was neglected by the standard distribution. Thus, the proposed distribution is a modification to the Pareto distribution of the first type, where the probability of the random variable lies within the period  The properties of the modified weighted Pareto distribution of the type I (MWPDTI) as the probability density function ,cumulative distribution function, Reliability function , Moment and  the hazard function are found. The behaviour of probability density function for MWPDTI distrib

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 22 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Phase Fitted And Amplification Fitted Of Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg Method Of Order 4(5) For Solving Oscillatory Problems
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In this paper, the proposed phase fitted and amplification fitted of the Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg method were derived on the basis of existing method of 4(5) order to solve ordinary differential equations with oscillatory solutions. The recent method has null phase-lag and zero dissipation properties. The phase-lag or dispersion error is the angle between the real solution and the approximate solution. While the dissipation is the distance of the numerical solution from the basic periodic solution. Many of problems are tested over a long interval, and the numerical results have shown that the present method is more precise than the 4(5) Runge-Kutta-Fehlberg method.

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Predicting Social Security Fund compensation in Iraq using ARMAX Model
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Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequ

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 05 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Determination of Water-Soluble Vitamins in Iraqi Honey Bee and Compare with Others Types by High –Performance Liquid Chromatography
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High-performance liquid chromatographic methods are used for the determination of water-soluble vitamins with UV-Vis. Detector. A reversed-phase high-performance liquid chromatographic has been developed for determination of water-soluble vitamins. Identification of compounds was achieved by comparing their retention times and UV spectra with those of standards solution. Separation was performed on a C18 column, using an isocratic 30% (v/v) acetonitril in dionozed water as mobile phase at pH 3.5 and flow rate 1.0m/min. The method provides low detection and quantification limits, good linearity in a large concentration interval and good precision. The detection limits ranged from 0.01 to 0.025µg/ml. The accuracy of the method was

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 04 2017
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Spectrophotometric determination of Metronidazole and Metronidazole benzoate via first and Second Derivative order spectroscopy
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A New Spectrophotometric Methods are improved for determination Metronidazole (MTZ) and Metronidazolebenzoate (MTZB) depending on1STand 2nd derivative spectrum of the two drugs by using ethanol as a solvent. Many techniques were proportionated with concentration (peak high to base line, peak to peak and peak area). The linearity of the methodsranged between(1-25µg.ml-1) is obtained. The results were precise and accurate throw RSD% were between (0.041-0.751%) and (0.0331-0.452%), Rec% values between (97.78, 101.87%) and (98.033-102.39%) while the LOD between (0.051-0.231 µg.ml-1) and (0.074-1.04 µg.ml-1) and LOQ between (0.170-0.770µg.ml-1) and (0.074-0.313 µg.ml-1) of (MTZ) and of (MTZB) respectively. These Methods were successfully ap

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 09 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Administration And Economics
Bayesian Method in Classification Regression Tree to estimate nonparametric additive model compared with Logistic Model with Application
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The use of Bayesian approach has the promise of features indicative of regression analysis model classification tree to take advantage of the above information by, and ensemble trees for explanatory variables are all together and at every stage on the other. In addition to obtaining the subsequent information at each node in the construction of these classification tree. Although bayesian estimates is generally accurate, but it seems that the logistic model is still a good competitor in the field of binary responses through its flexibility and mathematical representation. So is the use of three research methods data processing is carried out, namely: logistic model, and model classification regression tree, and bayesian regression tree mode

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis, Spectroscopy of New Lanthanide Complexes with Schiff Base Derived From (4-Antipyrinecarboxaldehyde with Ethylene Di-Amine) and Study the Bioactivity
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The study involved preparing a new compound by combining Schiff bases generated from compounds for antipyrine, including lanthanide ions (lanthanum, neodymium, erbium, gadolinium, and dysprosium). The preparation of the ligand from condensation reactions (4-antipyrinecarboxaldehyde with ethylene di-amine) at room temperature, and was characterization using spectroscopic and analytical studies ( FT-IR, UV-visible spectra, 1H-NMR, mass spectrometry, (C.H.N.O), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), in addition to the magnetic susceptibility and conductivity measurement of the synthesis complexes, among the results we obtained from the tests, we showed that the ligand behaves with the (triple Valence) lanthanide ions, the multidentate

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 01 2017
Journal Name
Diyala Journal For Pure Science
Correlated Hierarchical Autoregressive Models Image Compression
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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use A State Space Model and Forecast House Prices in Baghdad.
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The purchase of a home and access to housing is one of the most important requirements for the life of the individual and the stability of living and the development of the prices of houses in general and in Baghdad in particular affected by several factors, including the basic area of the house, the age of the house, the neighborhood in which the housing is available and the basic services, Where the statistical model SSM model was used to model house prices over a period of time from 2000 to 2018 and forecast until 2025 The research is concerned with enhancing the importance of this model and describing it as a standard and important compared to the models used in the analysis of time series after obtaining the

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2017
Journal Name
International Journal Of Scientific & Engineering Research
Integrated System of Information hiding by Applying Three levels
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MB Mahmood, BN Dhannoon

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