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Compare Prediction by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model from first order with Exponential Weighted Moving Average
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The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The effectiveness of thinking Skills in Developing Life Skills among First Year Students at Al- Bisha University
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     The aim of this research is to identify the effectiveness of thinking skills in developing the life skills of the students of the first Academic year, particularly the differences in life skills according to the variable of study specialization (human-scientific). To achieve the research objectives, the life skills scale was constructed on the classification of (WHO). The psychometric properties of the scale were examined. The validity of the scale, which is the final form of (60) items, was valid for measuring the life skills. The scale was then applied to the research sample of (112) students of the first year of the University of Bisha.  The SPSS program processed statistical analysis.  Resul

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 05 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Determination of Water-Soluble Vitamins in Iraqi Honey Bee and Compare with Others Types by High –Performance Liquid Chromatography
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High-performance liquid chromatographic methods are used for the determination of water-soluble vitamins with UV-Vis. Detector. A reversed-phase high-performance liquid chromatographic has been developed for determination of water-soluble vitamins. Identification of compounds was achieved by comparing their retention times and UV spectra with those of standards solution. Separation was performed on a C18 column, using an isocratic 30% (v/v) acetonitril in dionozed water as mobile phase at pH 3.5 and flow rate 1.0m/min. The method provides low detection and quantification limits, good linearity in a large concentration interval and good precision. The detection limits ranged from 0.01 to 0.025µg/ml. The accuracy of the method was

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2017
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Travel Time Prediction Models and Reliability Indices for Palestine Urban Road in Baghdad City
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Abstract

     Travel Time estimation and reliability measurement is an important issues for improving operation efficiency and safety of traffic roads networks. The aim of this research is the estimation of total travel time and distribution analysis for three selected links in Palestine Arterial Street in Baghdad city. Buffer time index results in worse reliability conditions. Link (2) from Bab Al Mutham intersection to Al-Sakara intersection produced a buffer index of about 36%  and 26 % for Link (1) Al-Mawall intersection to Bab Al- Mutham intersection and finally for link (3) which presented a 24% buffer index. These illustrated that the reliability get worst for link

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Predicting Social Security Fund compensation in Iraq using ARMAX Model
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Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequ

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis, Spectroscopy of New Lanthanide Complexes with Schiff Base Derived From (4-Antipyrinecarboxaldehyde with Ethylene Di-Amine) and Study the Bioactivity
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The study involved preparing a new compound by combining Schiff bases generated from compounds for antipyrine, including lanthanide ions (lanthanum, neodymium, erbium, gadolinium, and dysprosium). The preparation of the ligand from condensation reactions (4-antipyrinecarboxaldehyde with ethylene di-amine) at room temperature, and was characterization using spectroscopic and analytical studies ( FT-IR, UV-visible spectra, 1H-NMR, mass spectrometry, (C.H.N.O), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), in addition to the magnetic susceptibility and conductivity measurement of the synthesis complexes, among the results we obtained from the tests, we showed that the ligand behaves with the (triple Valence) lanthanide ions, the multidentate

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 31 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Administration And Economics
Bayesian Method in Classification Regression Tree to estimate nonparametric additive model compared with Logistic Model with Application
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The use of Bayesian approach has the promise of features indicative of regression analysis model classification tree to take advantage of the above information by, and ensemble trees for explanatory variables are all together and at every stage on the other. In addition to obtaining the subsequent information at each node in the construction of these classification tree. Although bayesian estimates is generally accurate, but it seems that the logistic model is still a good competitor in the field of binary responses through its flexibility and mathematical representation. So is the use of three research methods data processing is carried out, namely: logistic model, and model classification regression tree, and bayesian regression tree mode

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Stages of integration scenarios with strategic management From the perspective of study the historical development of scenarios
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Purpose: The present study seeks to examine various history stages in which undergone by the concept of scenarios, and development of this concept to integration with the strategic management practices:
Methodology: The current study relied on a literature review and approach in providing total picture of different stages undergone by this concept.
The main results: the scenarios did not reach maturity in their quest for integration with strategic management, and still need a great effort for the maturation of this thought in the framework of strategic management, and through it can contribute in creating important knowledge evolution.
Originality and value: providing a contemporary model linking the roots of this concept and cu

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2017
Journal Name
International Journal Of Scientific & Engineering Research
Integrated System of Information hiding by Applying Three levels
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MB Mahmood, BN Dhannoon

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Agricultural And Statistical Sciences
DYNAMIC MODELING FOR DISCRETE SURVIVAL DATA BY USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS AND ITERATIVELY WEIGHTED KALMAN FILTER SMOOTHING WITH COMPARISON
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Survival analysis is widely applied in data describing for the life time of item until the occurrence of an event of interest such as death or another event of understudy . The purpose of this paper is to use the dynamic approach in the deep learning neural network method, where in this method a dynamic neural network that suits the nature of discrete survival data and time varying effect. This neural network is based on the Levenberg-Marquardt (L-M) algorithm in training, and the method is called Proposed Dynamic Artificial Neural Network (PDANN). Then a comparison was made with another method that depends entirely on the Bayes methodology is called Maximum A Posterior (MAP) method. This method was carried out using numerical algorithms re

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 21 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Synthesis of C60 Nanotube from Pyrolysis of Plastic Waste (Polypropylene) with Catalyst
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Fullerene nanotube was synthesized in this research by pyrolysis of plastic waste Polypropylene (PP) at 1000 ° C for two hours in a closed reactor made from stainless steel using molybdenum oxide (MoO3) as a catalyst and nitrogen gas. The resultant carbon was purified and characterized by energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX), X-ray powder diffraction (XRD). The surface characteristics of C60 nanotubes were observed with the Field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM). The carbon is evenly spread and has the highest concentration from SEM-EDX characterization. The result of XRD and FESEM shows that C60 nanotubes are present in Nano figures, synthesized at 1000 ° C and with pyrolysis tempera

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