The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
A taxonomic keys was established of book and bark lice Order Psocoptera to isolated insects in Iraq from different localities of Baghdad and Babylon provinces. Thirteen species belong to eight genera and five families have been studied and described in details, these species were recorded for the first time in Iraq. These species are: Belaphopsocus badonneli New, 1971; Belaphotroctes oculeris Bodonnel, 1973; Embodopsocosis newi Bodonnel, 1973; Epipsocus stigamaticus Mockeord, 1991; Lepinotus huoni Schmidt and New, 2008; Liposcelies decolor Peramane 1925 Liposcelies paeta Pearman 1942 Liposclies bostrychphila Badonnel 1931; Liposclies brunnea Mostchulsky 1852; Liposclies entoophila Enderlein 1907; Neopsocopsis minuscule Li 2002 ;
... Show MoreThe paper is devoted to solve nth order linear delay integro-differential equations of convolution type (DIDE's-CT) using collocation method with the aid of B-spline functions. A new algorithm with the aid of Matlab language is derived to treat numerically three types (retarded, neutral and mixed) of nth order linear DIDE's-CT using B-spline functions and Weddle rule for calculating the required integrals for these equations. Comparison between approximated and exact results has been given in test examples with suitable graphing for every example for solving three types of linear DIDE's-CT of different orders for conciliated the accuracy of the results of the proposed method.
The study aimed to know the degree to which Islamic education teachers employ the strategy of directed discovery in teaching to develop higher thinking skills (analysis, synthesis, and evaluation) among sixth-grade students at the basic stage in East Nile Province, Khartoum State - Sudan. The researcher used the descriptive-analytical method, and adopted a questionnaire that consisted of (15) indicators representing the skills of analysis, synthesis, and evaluation as a tool of the study. A random sample of (175) Islamic education teachers was selected, from the Department of Basic Education. The data were analyzed according to the Statistical Packages for Social Sciences (SPSS) program, and the results of the study have shown that the u
... Show MoreZygapophyseal joints (or facet joints), are a plane synovial joint which located between the articular facet processes of the vertebral arch which is freely guided movable joints. Ten dried vertebrae were used for the lumbar region and taking (L4) as a sample to reveal stress pathways across the joints by using ANSYS program under different loading conditions which used Finite Elements Analysis model. Results obtained from the ANSYS program are important in understanding the boundary conditions for load analysis and the points of stress concentration which explained from the anatomical point of view and linked to muscle and ligament attachments. This model used as a computational tool to joint biomechanics and to prosthetic im
... Show MoreThis paper presents a sight about the chemical structure deformation of poly (ethylene-co-vinyl acetate) (EVA) samples according to the change ratio of rate constant values. Spectroscopy kinetics fluorescence curves are fitted for two characteristic wavelength domains of fluorescent intensities. The short wavelengths (320-400 nm) domain show spectra overlapping, while at long wavelengths (400-800 nm) domain spectra are arranged in regular for each specific accelerated aging time. The ratio of kinetics rate constant at long wavelengths to kinetics rate constant of short wavelengths is the criterion of the degree chemical structure deformation. Molar extrin
... Show MoreObjective(s): To evaluate and compare between Health Promotion Program for the Prevention of Epidemics at Primary Health Care Centers in Baghdad City.
Methodology: A descriptive study, using the evaluation and comparative approaches, is conducted to evaluate health promotion program for the prevention of epidemics at primary health care centers in baghdad city from October 15th 2019 through March 1st 2020. A purposive, non-probability, sample of (42) health promotion unit officers were recruited from the same number of primary health care centers which were divided into (14) main, (14) sub and (14) family medicine primary health care centers i
... Show MoreThe current research studies the aesthetic framework for the dialectical development of the functions of the contemporary theater director in an aesthetic approach to the mechanisms of functional overlap between the dramaturgy and direction functions, and scenography and direction, the detection of the controversial structure of that overlap, and what can be summed up in the following question: (what are the aesthetic approaches of the dialectical development in the function of the contemporary theatre director?). The research is determined by a pivotal aim which is (knowing the aesthetic nature of the dialectical development in
The present paper focuses on studying a rhetorical form often used in Spanish linguistic discourse .It also examines the study two sides (theoretical and practical), the concept of metaphor, the most important modern school that deals with this issue, the development of this technique and its relationship with other intellectual ideologies, and the role metaphor plays in interpreting the meaning of the linguistic discourse especially in conveying political message. The study allows the formulation and the creation of a conceptual picture for the purposes of metaphor in the linguistic discourse used in Spanish press. It investigates discursive models from the Spanish press,
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