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Compare Prediction by Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model from first order with Exponential Weighted Moving Average
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The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 19 2021
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum (p-issn: 1017-8678 , E-issn: 2311-9799)
FIRST PHOTOGRAPHIC RECORDS AND NEW DISTRIBUTION RANGE OF THE ENDANGERED LONG-TAILED NESOKIA NESOKIA BUNNII (KHAJURIA, 1981)
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In the 1970s, the world knew the long-tailed nesokia Nesokia bunnii (Khajuria, 1981) (Rodentia, Muridae) from the Mesopotamian marshes of Garden of Eden in Southern Iraq. This distinct rodent was known from only five voucher specimens collected at the confluence of Tigris and Euphrates Rivers in southern Iraq while its occurrence in Southwestern Iran had
never been reported. In the 1990s, a large extent of its natural habitat was catastrophically desiccated and the animal was last seen in the 1970s. Since then, the status of this elusive rodent was shrouded in mystery. In 2007, an extraordinary photograph of a carcass of this species came to the light from Hawizeh Marsh which was interpreted as concrete evidence of the species’ pers

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 06 2022
Journal Name
Future Oncology
The first Middle East and North Africa expert consensus recommendations for the management of advanced colorectal cancer
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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Modifications to Accelerate the Iterative Algorithm for the Single Diode Model of PV Model
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This paper discussed the solution of an equivalent circuit of solar cell, where a single diode model is presented. The nonlinear equation of this model has suggested and analyzed an iterative algorithm, which work well for this equation with a suitable initial value for the iterative. The convergence of the proposed method is discussed. It is established that the algorithm has convergence of order six. The proposed algorithm is achieved with a various values of load resistance. Equation by means of equivalent circuit of a solar cell so all the determinations is achieved using Matlab in ambient temperature. The obtained results of this new method are given and the absolute errors is demonstrated.

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 09 2023
Journal Name
Artificial Intelligence Review
Community detection model for dynamic networks based on hidden Markov model and evolutionary algorithm
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Finding communities of connected individuals in complex networks is challenging, yet crucial for understanding different real-world societies and their interactions. Recently attention has turned to discover the dynamics of such communities. However, detecting accurate community structures that evolve over time adds additional challenges. Almost all the state-of-the-art algorithms are designed based on seemingly the same principle while treating the problem as a coupled optimization model to simultaneously identify community structures and their evolution over time. Unlike all these studies, the current work aims to individually consider this three measures, i.e. intra-community score, inter-community score, and evolution of community over

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Publication Date
Mon May 23 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
Iraqi Pharmaceutical Formula for Clonazepam Oral Drop 2.5 mg/ ml to Treat Seizure Epilepsy in Infants and Children with its Stability Study.: Iraqi Pharmaceutical Formula for Clonazepam Oral Drop 2.5 mg/ ml to Treat Seizure Epilepsy in Infants and Children with its Stability Study.
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This work has been carried out to develop national drug product contains 2.5mg/ml clonazepam as oral drop; it is used for the treatment of epilepsy in infants and children.
Several formulations were prepared using oral drop base, flavor, buffer, sweeteners and preservatives. Selection of best formula relied solely on physic-chemical testing of samples.
Stability study was conducted on the product for six months at different temperatures to determine the expiration date and the best storage conditions.
From the study we obtained an oral drop of good clear solution. The expiry date calculated to be not less than 2 years.

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Two Domain Flow Method for Leachate Prediction Through Municipal Solid Waste Layers in Al–Amari Landfill Site
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Existing leachate models over–or underestimates leachate generation by up to three orders of magnitude. Practical experiments show that channeled flow in waste leads to rapid discharge of large leachate volumes and heterogeneous moisture distribution. In order to more accurately predict leachate generation, leachate models must be improved. To predict moisture movement through waste, the two–domain PREFLO, are tested. Experimental waste and leachate flow values are compared with model predictions. When calibrated with experimental parameters, the PREFLO provides estimates of breakthrough time. In the short term, field capacity has to be reduced to 0.12 and effective storage and hydraulic conductivity of the waste must be increased to

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 31 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Rigid Trunk Sewer Deterioration Prediction Models using Multiple Discriminant and Neural Network Models in Baghdad City, Iraq
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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Rigid trunk sewer deterioration prediction models using multiple discriminant and neural network models in Baghdad city, Iraq
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The deterioration of buried sewers during their lifetime can be affected by several factors leading to bad performance and can damage the infrastructure similar to other engineering structures. The Hydraulic deterioration of the buried sewers caused by sewer blockages while the structural deterioration caused by sewer collapses due to sewer specifications and the surrounding soil characteristics and the groundwater level. The main objective of this research is to develop deterioration models, which are used to predict changes in sewer condition that can provide assessment tools for determining the serviceability of sewer networks in Baghdad city. Two deterioration models were developed and tested using statistical software SPSS, the

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Publication Date
Mon May 27 2019
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Prediction of Process Parameters That Affecting on Surface Roughness in Multi-Point Forming Process Using ANOVA Algorithm
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Multipoint forming process is an engineering concept which means that the working surface of the punch and die is produced as hemispherical ends of individual active elements (called pins), where each pin can be independently, vertically displaced using a geometrically reconfigurable die. Several different products can be made without changing tools saved precious production time. Also, the manufacturing of very expensive rigid dies is reduced, and a lot of expenses are saved. But the most important aspects of using such types of equipment are the flexibility of the tooling. This paper presents an experimental investigation of the effect of three main parameters which are blank holder, rubber thickness and forming speed th

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 29 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Prediction of Hydraulic Flow Units for Jeribe Reservoir in Jambour Oil Field Applying Flow Zone Indicator Method
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The Jeribe reservoir in the Jambour Oil Field is a complex and heterogeneous carbonate reservoir characterized by a wide range of permeability variations. Due to limited availability of core plugs in most wells, it becomes crucial to establish correlations between cored wells and apply them to uncored wells for predicting permeability. In recent years, the Flow Zone Indicator (FZI) approach has gained significant applicability for predicting hydraulic flow units (HFUs) and identifying rock types within the reservoir units.    This paper aims to develop a permeability model based on the principles of the Flow Zone Indicator. Analysis of core permeability versus core porosity plot and Reservoir Quality Index (RQI) - Normalized poros

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