The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
Abstract
A surface fitting model is developed based on calorimeter data for two famous brands of household compressors. Correlation equations of ten coefficient polynomials were found as a function of refrigerant saturating and evaporating temperatures in range of (-35℃ to -10℃) using Matlab software for cooling capacity, power consumption, and refrigerant mass flow rate.
Additional correlations equations for these variables as a quick choice selection for a proper compressor use at ASHRAE standard that cover a range of swept volume range (2.24-11.15) cm3.
The result indicated that these surface fitting models are accurate with in ± 15% for 72 compressors model of cooling cap
... Show MoreSodium adsorption ratio (SAR) is considered as a measure of the water suitability for irrigation usage. This study examines the effect of the physicochemical parameters on water quality and SAR, which included Calcium(Ca+2), Magnesium(Mg+2), Sodium (Na+), Potassium (K), Chloride (Cl-), Sulfate(SO4-2), Carbonate (CO3-2), Bicarbonate (HCO3-), Nitrate (NO3-), Total Hardness (TH), Total Dissolved Salts (TDS), Electrical Conductivity (EC), degree of reaction (DR), Boron (B) and the monthly and annually flow discharge (Q). The water samples were collected from three stations across the Tigris River in Iraq, which flows through Samarra city (upstream), Baghdad city (central) and the end of Kut city (downstream) for the periods of 2016-201
... Show MorePermeability estimation is a vital step in reservoir engineering due to its effect on reservoir's characterization, planning for perforations, and economic efficiency of the reservoirs. The core and well-logging data are the main sources of permeability measuring and calculating respectively. There are multiple methods to predict permeability such as classic, empirical, and geostatistical methods. In this research, two statistical approaches have been applied and compared for permeability prediction: Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest, given the (M) reservoir interval in the (BH) Oil Field in the northern part of Iraq. The dataset was separated into two subsets: Training and Testing in order to cross-validate the accuracy
... Show MoreSewer systems are used to convey sewage and/or storm water to sewage treatment plants for disposal by a network of buried sewer pipes, gutters, manholes and pits. Unfortunately, the sewer pipe deteriorates with time leading to the collapsing of the pipe with traffic disruption or clogging of the pipe causing flooding and environmental pollution. Thus, the management and maintenance of the buried pipes are important tasks that require information about the changes of the current and future sewer pipes conditions. In this research, the study was carried on in Baghdad, Iraq and two deteriorations model's multinomial logistic regression and neural network deterioration model NNDM are used to predict sewers future conditions. The results of the
... Show MoreVarious theories have been proposed since in last century to predict the first sighting of a new crescent moon. None of them uses the concept of machine and deep learning to process, interpret and simulate patterns hidden in databases. Many of these theories use interpolation and extrapolation techniques to identify sighting regions through such data. In this study, a pattern recognizer artificial neural network was trained to distinguish between visibility regions. Essential parameters of crescent moon sighting were collected from moon sight datasets and used to build an intelligent system of pattern recognition to predict the crescent sight conditions. The proposed ANN learned the datasets with an accuracy of more than 72% in comp
... Show MoreBACKGROUND: Preterm labour is a major cause of perinatal morbidity and mortality, so it is important to predict preterm delivery using the clinical examination of the cervix and uterine contraction frequency. New markers for the prediction of preterm birth have been developed such as transvaginal ultrasound measurement of cervical length as this method is widely available. OBJECTIVE: To determine, whether transvaginal cervical length measurement predicts imminent preterm delivery better than digital cervical length measurement in women presented with preterm labour and intact membranes. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Two hundred women presented with preterm labour between 24 and 36+6 weeks of gestation were included in this study. All women subjecte
... Show MoreDeep learning (DL) plays a significant role in several tasks, especially classification and prediction. Classification tasks can be efficiently achieved via convolutional neural networks (CNN) with a huge dataset, while recurrent neural networks (RNN) can perform prediction tasks due to their ability to remember time series data. In this paper, three models have been proposed to certify the evaluation track for classification and prediction tasks associated with four datasets (two for each task). These models are CNN and RNN, which include two models (Long Short Term Memory (LSTM)) and GRU (Gated Recurrent Unit). Each model is employed to work consequently over the two mentioned tasks to draw a road map of deep learning mod
... Show MoreAbstract:
The research aimed to know favoured mass media for children and
modifying their behaviour ,the child became aquires the information from
mass media that he exposure them without any guidance , where upon the
quidance proqrammes becomes real danger whereas qet out their civil
style and converting to deadly poisons,and because of little study for this
supject the two researchers opined to perform astudy to know the favoured
mass media to the children and what are the mass media that modify their
behavior according to ther parent points of view ,after propring the research
measurement and the suilable statical methods it has shown that there are
mass media affect in children behavior ,they are st
Leuconostoc bacteria was isolated from local pickled cabbage (Brassica oleracea capitata) and identified as Leuconostoc mesenteroides by morphology,biochemical and physiological. The local isolated L. mesenteroides bacteria under the optimal conditions of dextran production showed that, the highly production of dextran was 7.7g achieved by using a modified natural media comprised of 100ml whey, 10g refined sugar, 0.5g heated yeast extract, 0.01g CaCl2, 0.001g MgSO4, 0.001g MnCl2 and 0.001g NaCl at pH 6 and 25̊C for 24 hr of fermentation and by using 1ᵡ106 cell/ml as initial inoculums volume. Some applications in food technology (Ice cream, Loaf, Ketchup and Beef preservation) have been performed with processed dextran. The result