The prediction process of time series for some time-related phenomena, in particular, the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) models is one of the important topics in the theory of time series analysis in the applied statistics. Perhaps its importance lies in the basic stages in analyzing of the structure or modeling and the conditions that must be provided in the stochastic process. This paper deals with two methods of predicting the first was a special case of autoregressive integrated moving average which is ARIMA (0,1,1) if the value of the parameter equal to zero, then it is called Random Walk model, the second was the exponential weighted moving average (EWMA). It was implemented in the data of the monthly traffic accidents in the province of Dhi Qar Governorate for the period from (Jan. 2011) to (Aug. 2019). It was found through the research that the model studied is well of the traffic accident, we can predict dangerous traffic accident using this model and reduce the aggravation through Develop plans strategic of the roads.
Flavonoids were extracted from Zizyphus spina-christi leaves by Ethyl acetate after acid digested and used as antioxidant. The dried extract was added separately to each sample of fat extracted from hallow cow and sheep bones as follows: T1 cow fat, T2 control for cow fat, T3 sheep fat and T4 control for sheep fat (the control T2 and T4 reffered to samples without added antioxidant).
Samples were stored at -18, 5, 25 and 55 °C for 28 days. The storage trials were conducted at -18, 5 and 25 °C for 28 days for T1, T2, T3 and T4. The chemical indices examined initially and at the end of storage period. PVs was 1.46, 1.46, 1.8 and 1.8 meq/ Kg oil respectively, FFA values were 0.245, 0.245, 0.244 and 0.244% respectively and TBA va
Prediction of daily rainfall is important for flood forecasting, reservoir operation, and many other hydrological applications. The artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm is generally used for stochastic forecasting rainfall which is not capable to simulate unseen extreme rainfall events which become common due to climate change. A new model is developed in this study for prediction of daily rainfall for different lead times based on sea level pressure (SLP) which is physically related to rainfall on land and thus able to predict unseen rainfall events. Daily rainfall of east coast of Peninsular Malaysia (PM) was predicted using SLP data over the climate domain. Five advanced AI algorithms such as extreme learning machine (ELM), Bay
... Show MoreThe present work involved designing and synthesizing of a series of new. compounds which their molecules are composed from two biologically active components namely sulfamethoxazole or β-lactam containing drugs and cyclic imides. The target new compounds were synthesized by two steps in the first one a series of six bis (N-drug phthalamic acid_4-yl) ketone (1-6) were prepared from the reaction of sulfamethoxazole or β-lactam containing drugs with benzophenone 3, 3′, 4, 4′ -tetracarboxylic dianhydride.
In the second step, compounds (1-6) were introduced in dehydration reaction via fusion process producing the target compounds bis (N-drug phthalimidyl-4-yl) ketone (7-12). The antibacterial and antifungal high
... Show MoreSynthesis of 2-mercaptobenzothiazole (A1) is performed from the reaction of o-aminothiophenol and carbon disulfide CS2 in ethanol under basic condition. Compound (A1) is reacted with chloro acetyl chloride to give compound (A2). Hydrazide acid compound (A3) is obtained from the reaction of compound (A2) with hydrazine hydrate in ethanol under reflux in the presence of glacial acetic acid .The reaction of hydrazide acid compound (A3) with ethyl acetoacetate gives pyrazole compound (A4). The new hydrazone compound (A5) was prepared from the reaction of compound (A3) with benzaldehyde. Reaction of compound
... Show MoreCuneiform texts are the most important sources for our knowledge of ancient history and in all political, economic, social and religious fields, as the ancients left us thousands of these texts, which were found through excavations, and hundreds of these texts were stolen and smuggled out of Iraq, and some of these texts were returned after the Jordanian government confiscated them and returned them to the Iraqi Museum. Most of these cuneiform texts were economic texts. In this research, a group of these confiscated cuneiform texts was studied (their number was six texts bearing the following museum numbers, respectively (160609 - 160103 - 160290 - 160102 - 206650 - 206637) dating back to the time of the king of the Larsa dynasty, Rim-Sin (
... Show MoreAt the time when many important political events and evolutions took place, the cinema has been pretty active, and witnessed the historical events before and after the two world wars and the cold war. During the first half of the 20th century, the cinema had great interest from the major countries and their politicians, as well as the commercial turnout of large companies to invest in that field for the profits. In the beginning of the 20th century, the major powers like the Soviet Union, the United States, Germany, Italy, England, and France started to compete in the development of their film industry and the investment of the new medium and the transformation of some famous works of fiction into films that perpetuate their cultur
... Show MoreObjective: to assess the predictive value of Doppler imaging of the uterine artery in the identification of early intrauterine abnormal pregnancy as compared to a normal intrauterine pregnancy. Subjects and methods: one hundred and twenty pregnant ladies, at their 6-12 weeks of gestation, with a singleton pregnancy were included in this population-based case-control study. Thirty women with a missed miscarriage, 30 with hydatidiform mole, 30 with a blighted ovum, and 30 as a control group, without risk factors, underwent Doppler interrogation of the uterine arteries. Resistive index (RI), pulsatility index (PI), and the systolic/diastolic ratio (S/D) were measured for both sides. The t-test, or ANOVA test when appropriate, was
... Show MorePeak ground acceleration (PGA) is one of the critical factors that affect the determination of earthquake intensity. PGA is generally utilized to describe ground motion in a particular zone and is able to efficiently predict the parameters of site ground motion for the design of engineering structures. Therefore, novel models are developed to forecast PGA in the case of the Iraqi database, which utilizes the particle swarm optimization (PSO) approach. A data set of 187 historical ground-motion recordings in Iraq’s tectonic regions was used to build the explicit proposed models. The proposed PGA models relate to different seismic parameters, including the magnitude of the earthquake (Mw), average shear-wave velocity (VS30), focal depth (FD
... Show MoreBased on the results of standard penetration tests (SPTs) conducted in Al-Basrah governorate, this research aims to present thematic maps and equations for estimating the bearing capacity of driven piles having several lengths. The work includes drilling 135 boreholes to a depth of 10 m below the existing ground level and three standard penetration tests (SPT) at depths of 1.5, 6, and 9.5 m were conducted in each borehole. MATLAB software and corrected SPT values were used to determine the bearing capacity of driven piles in Al-Basrah. Several-order interpolation polynomials are suggested to estimate the bearing capacity of driven piles, but the first-order polynomial is considered the most straightforward. Furthermore, the root means squar
... Show More